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Tried tuning ECS #25

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Jun 24, 2024
Merged

Tried tuning ECS #25

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afd0349
Ran initial ECS scripts
ptrscll Jun 20, 2024
ba3e461
Plotted initial ecs results
ptrscll Jun 20, 2024
aa16fde
Merge branch 'main' into ECS_experiments
ptrscll Jun 24, 2024
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45 changes: 45 additions & 0 deletions results/ecs_unc_nmse.txt
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parameters values
beta 0.732
q10_rh 2.23750367260462
diff 2.4
S 5

Objective Function Value: 0.00057
Counts: 50
Counts: 50
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 44.5
T MSE: 0.0542
RMSE: 6.67
T MSE accounting for unc: 0.0214

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 2.29
TCR: 2.32

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.837
Ocean Heat Content Change: 533
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.66
Methane ERF: 0.541

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.94
ssp119 2041 2060 1.24
ssp119 2081 2100 1.23
ssp126 2021 2040 0.956
ssp126 2041 2060 1.46
ssp126 2081 2100 1.71
ssp245 2021 2040 0.962
ssp245 2041 2060 1.7
ssp245 2081 2100 2.8
ssp370 2021 2040 0.972
ssp370 2041 2060 1.86
ssp370 2081 2100 3.99
ssp585 2021 2040 1.11
ssp585 2041 2060 2.26
ssp585 2081 2100 5.11
45 changes: 45 additions & 0 deletions results/ecs_unc_nmse_big_box.txt
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parameters values
beta 1.06933813506042
q10_rh 3.52
diff 2
S 5

Objective Function Value: 0.000408
Counts: 16
Counts: 16
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 228
T MSE: 0.0422
RMSE: 15.1
T MSE accounting for unc: 0.0151

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 2.41
TCR: 2.42

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.702
Ocean Heat Content Change: 436
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.35
Methane ERF: 0.538

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.911
ssp119 2041 2060 1.17
ssp119 2081 2100 1.17
ssp126 2021 2040 0.927
ssp126 2041 2060 1.39
ssp126 2081 2100 1.62
ssp245 2021 2040 0.933
ssp245 2041 2060 1.64
ssp245 2081 2100 2.72
ssp370 2021 2040 0.943
ssp370 2041 2060 1.8
ssp370 2081 2100 3.96
ssp585 2021 2040 1.09
ssp585 2041 2060 2.23
ssp585 2081 2100 5.15
76 changes: 76 additions & 0 deletions scripts/ecs_unc_nmse.R
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# Script to use normalized the T and CO2 MSEs while accounting for T uncertainty
# Also includes ECS as a param to optimize over
# Author: Peter Scully
# Date: 6/20/24

### Constants and Imports ###

# Importing libraries
library(hector)

# Setting up file paths
COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts")
RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results")

CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
"Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv")
TEMP_PATH <-
file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
"HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")

INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS())

OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "ecs_unc_nmse_big_box.txt")


source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))

### Getting observational data ###
co2_data <- get_co2_data(CO2_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data)

### Calling optim ###
best_pars <- run_optim(obs_data = obs_data,
ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
lower = c(0, 2.2 - 0.44 * 3, 2.3 - 0.1 * 3, 2),
upper = c(0.5 + 0.232 * 3, 2.2 + 0.44 * 3, 2.3 + 0.1 * 3, 5),
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()),
error_fn = mean_T_CO2_nmse_unc,
include_unc = T,
method = "L-BFGS-B",
output_file = OUTPUT)

### Outputting individual MSEs ###
hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
vals = best_pars,
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))

T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data,
hector_data = hector_data,
var = GMST(),
yrs = 1850:2014)
CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data,
hector_data = hector_data,
var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(),
yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
T_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data,
hector_data = hector_data,
var = GMST(),
yrs = 1850:2014,
mse_fn = mse_unc)

write_metric("CO2 MSE:", CO2_mse, OUTPUT)
write_metric("T MSE: ", T_mse, OUTPUT)
write_metric("RMSE: ", sqrt(mean(CO2_mse, T_mse)), OUTPUT) # not 100% sure this is how we want to calculate this
write_metric("T MSE accounting for unc:", T_mse_unc, OUTPUT)
write("", OUTPUT, append = TRUE)

### Outputting table metrics ###
calc_table_metrics(PARAMS, best_pars, OUTPUT)
27 changes: 17 additions & 10 deletions scripts/graph_comparison_plots.R
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Expand Up @@ -20,9 +20,9 @@ TEMP_PATH <-
"HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")

INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY())
PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS())

OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "nmse_box_comparison_plots.jpeg")
OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "ecs_initial_comparison_plots.jpeg")


source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
Expand All @@ -47,27 +47,34 @@ default_data$scenario <- "Hector - Default Fit"

nmse_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
vals = c(0.732, 2.64, 2.4),
vals = c(0.732, 2.64, 2.4, 3),
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
nmse_data$scenario <- "Hector - Fit to NMSEs"
nmse_data$scenario <- "Hector - Fit to NMSEs w/ unc"

nmse_bb_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
vals = c(1.196, 3.52, 2),
vals = c(1.084, 3.52, 2, 3),
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))

nmse_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - Fit to NMSEs, Big Box"
nmse_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - Fit to NMSEs w/ unc, big box"

nmse_bb_smooth_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
nmse_ecs_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
vals = c(1.147, 3.52, 2),
vals = c(0.732, 2.24, 2.4, 5),
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
nmse_bb_smooth_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSEs, Big Box, Smoothed"
nmse_ecs_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSEs w/ unc & Tuning S"

hector_data <- rbind(default_data, nmse_data, nmse_bb_data, nmse_bb_smooth_data)
nmse_bb_ecs_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
params = PARAMS,
vals = c(1.069, 3.52, 2, 5),
yrs = 1750:2014,
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
nmse_bb_ecs_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSEs w/ unc, big box & Tuning S"

hector_data <- rbind(default_data, nmse_data, nmse_bb_data, nmse_ecs_data, nmse_bb_ecs_data)
hector_data$lower <- hector_data$value
hector_data$upper <- hector_data$value

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