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Tried tuning ECS #25

Merged
merged 3 commits into from
Jun 24, 2024
Merged

Tried tuning ECS #25

merged 3 commits into from
Jun 24, 2024

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ptrscll
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@ptrscll ptrscll commented Jun 20, 2024

I tried including ECS as a tunable parameter while optimizing NMSE accounting for uncertainty in temperature data. Results are as follows:

  • For both the regular and big box constraints, optimal S was 5, leading to unrealistic future warming.
  • Temperature MSE decreased from previous runs.
  • CO2 MSE was still very high due to using NMSE, but it was very slightly lower than in the equivalent experiments done with a fixed S.

A plot showing the results of these initial runs is given below:

ecs_initial_comparison_plots

For next steps, I might try to re-weight the error function to better balance temperature and CO2 error, but even when including S as a tunable parameter, it doesn't look like too much improvement in temperature results is possible (without incorporating another parameter).

This PR is related to #8

@ptrscll ptrscll mentioned this pull request Jun 20, 2024
@ptrscll ptrscll merged commit 5df36d8 into main Jun 24, 2024
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@ptrscll ptrscll deleted the ECS_experiments branch July 11, 2024 20:19
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