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parameters values | ||
beta 0.732 | ||
q10_rh 1.76 | ||
diff 1.042 | ||
alpha 0.61285349058506 | ||
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Objective Function Value: 5.85e-05 | ||
Counts: 13 | ||
Counts: 13 | ||
Convergence: 0 | ||
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH | ||
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CO2 MSE: 27.1 | ||
T MSE: 0.0134 | ||
RMSE: 5.2 | ||
T MSE accounting for unc: 0.00301 | ||
OHC MSE accounting for unc: 29.6 | ||
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***Key Metrics*** | ||
TCRE: 1.55 | ||
TCR: 2 | ||
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***Historical Warming and ERF*** | ||
GSAT Warming: 1.04 | ||
Ocean Heat Content Change: 451 | ||
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24 | ||
WMGHG ERF: 3.69 | ||
Methane ERF: 0.546 | ||
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***Future Warming*** | ||
scenario start end GSAT | ||
ssp119 2021 2040 0.678 | ||
ssp119 2041 2060 0.721 | ||
ssp119 2081 2100 0.389 | ||
ssp126 2021 2040 0.71 | ||
ssp126 2041 2060 0.947 | ||
ssp126 2081 2100 0.787 | ||
ssp245 2021 2040 0.758 | ||
ssp245 2041 2060 1.27 | ||
ssp245 2081 2100 1.84 | ||
ssp370 2021 2040 0.8 | ||
ssp370 2041 2060 1.51 | ||
ssp370 2081 2100 3.08 | ||
ssp585 2021 2040 0.88 | ||
ssp585 2041 2060 1.77 | ||
ssp585 2081 2100 3.91 |
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parameters values | ||
beta 0.903540335704792 | ||
q10_rh 0.88 | ||
diff 0.806 | ||
alpha 0.459527640832312 | ||
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Objective Function Value: 4.63e-05 | ||
Counts: 31 | ||
Counts: 31 | ||
Convergence: 0 | ||
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH | ||
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CO2 MSE: 119 | ||
T MSE: 0.0125 | ||
RMSE: 10.9 | ||
T MSE accounting for unc: 0.00248 | ||
OHC MSE accounting for unc: 0.529 | ||
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***Key Metrics*** | ||
TCRE: 1.24 | ||
TCR: 2.07 | ||
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***Historical Warming and ERF*** | ||
GSAT Warming: 1.08 | ||
Ocean Heat Content Change: 413 | ||
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24 | ||
WMGHG ERF: 3.39 | ||
Methane ERF: 0.546 | ||
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***Future Warming*** | ||
scenario start end GSAT | ||
ssp119 2021 2040 0.549 | ||
ssp119 2041 2060 0.464 | ||
ssp119 2081 2100 0.0238 | ||
ssp126 2021 2040 0.588 | ||
ssp126 2041 2060 0.702 | ||
ssp126 2081 2100 0.384 | ||
ssp245 2021 2040 0.655 | ||
ssp245 2041 2060 1.06 | ||
ssp245 2081 2100 1.42 | ||
ssp370 2021 2040 0.712 | ||
ssp370 2041 2060 1.34 | ||
ssp370 2081 2100 2.7 | ||
ssp585 2021 2040 0.77 | ||
ssp585 2041 2060 1.57 | ||
ssp585 2081 2100 3.48 |
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# Script for experiment 14 | ||
# Script to use normalized T, OHC and CO2 MSEs while accounting for T, OHC unc | ||
# Also includes alpha as param to optimize over (but ECS is fixed at 3) | ||
# Uses OHC range from Matilda table rather than manuscript script | ||
# Author: Peter Scully | ||
# Date: 6/25/24 | ||
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### Constants and Imports ### | ||
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# Importing libraries | ||
library(hector) | ||
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# Setting up file paths | ||
COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data") | ||
SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts") | ||
RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results") | ||
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CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, | ||
"Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv") | ||
TEMP_PATH <- | ||
file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, | ||
"HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv") | ||
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OHC_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, "OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv") | ||
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INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector") | ||
PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), AERO_SCALE()) | ||
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OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "14_alpha_ohc_unc_nmse_big_box.txt") | ||
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source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R")) | ||
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### Getting observational data ### | ||
co2_data <- get_co2_data(CO2_PATH, include_unc = TRUE) | ||
temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH, include_unc = TRUE) | ||
ohc_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_PATH, include_unc = T) | ||
obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data, ohc_data) | ||
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### Calling optim ### | ||
best_pars <- run_optim(obs_data = obs_data, | ||
ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
lower = c(0, 2.2 - 0.44 * 3, 1.16 - 0.118 * 3, 0), | ||
upper = c(0.5 + 0.232 * 3, 2.2 + 0.44 * 3, 1.16 + 0.118 * 3, 3), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()), | ||
error_fn = mean_T_CO2_OHC_nmse_unc, | ||
include_unc = T, | ||
method = "L-BFGS-B", | ||
output_file = OUTPUT) | ||
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### Outputting individual MSEs ### | ||
hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = best_pars, | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX())) | ||
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T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, | ||
hector_data = hector_data, | ||
var = GMST(), | ||
yrs = 1850:2014) | ||
CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, | ||
hector_data = hector_data, | ||
var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), | ||
yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014)) | ||
T_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data, | ||
hector_data = hector_data, | ||
var = GMST(), | ||
yrs = 1850:2014, | ||
mse_fn = mse_unc) | ||
OHC_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data, | ||
hector_data = hector_data, | ||
var = "OHC", | ||
yrs = 1957:2014, | ||
mse_fn = mse_unc) | ||
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write_metric("CO2 MSE:", CO2_mse, OUTPUT) | ||
write_metric("T MSE: ", T_mse, OUTPUT) | ||
write_metric("RMSE: ", sqrt(mean(CO2_mse, T_mse)), OUTPUT) # not 100% sure this is how we want to calculate this | ||
write_metric("T MSE accounting for unc:", T_mse_unc, OUTPUT) | ||
write_metric("OHC MSE accounting for unc:", OHC_mse_unc, OUTPUT) | ||
write("", OUTPUT, append = TRUE) | ||
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### Outputting table metrics ### | ||
calc_table_metrics(PARAMS, best_pars, OUTPUT) |