tried fixing S but not alpha

results/14_alpha_ohc_unc_nmse.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.732
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	1.042
+alpha	0.61285349058506
+
+Objective Function Value: 5.85e-05
+Counts: 13
+Counts: 13
+Convergence:  0
+Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH
+
+CO2 MSE: 27.1
+T MSE:   0.0134
+RMSE:    5.2
+T MSE accounting for unc: 0.00301
+OHC MSE accounting for unc: 29.6
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.55
+TCR:  2
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              1.04
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 451
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.69
+Methane ERF:               0.546
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.678
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.721
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.389
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.71
+ssp126	2041	2060	0.947
+ssp126	2081	2100	0.787
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.758
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.27
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.84
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.8
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.51
+ssp370	2081	2100	3.08
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.88
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.77
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.91

results/14_alpha_ohc_unc_nmse_big_box.txt

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+parameters	values
+beta	0.903540335704792
+q10_rh	0.88
+diff	0.806
+alpha	0.459527640832312
+
+Objective Function Value: 4.63e-05
+Counts: 31
+Counts: 31
+Convergence:  0
+Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH
+
+CO2 MSE: 119
+T MSE:   0.0125
+RMSE:    10.9
+T MSE accounting for unc: 0.00248
+OHC MSE accounting for unc: 0.529
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.24
+TCR:  2.07
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              1.08
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 413
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.39
+Methane ERF:               0.546
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.549
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.464
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.0238
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.588
+ssp126	2041	2060	0.702
+ssp126	2081	2100	0.384
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.655
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.06
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.42
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.712
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.34
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.7
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.77
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.57
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.48

scripts/alpha_fix_S_ohc_unc_nmse.R

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+# Script for experiment 14
+# Script to use normalized T, OHC and CO2 MSEs while accounting for T, OHC unc
+# Also includes alpha as param to optimize over (but ECS is fixed at 3)
+# Uses OHC range from Matilda table rather than manuscript script
+# Author: Peter Scully
+# Date: 6/25/24
+
+### Constants and Imports ###
+
+# Importing libraries
+library(hector)
+
+# Setting up file paths
+COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
+SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts")
+RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results")
+
+CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+                      "Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv")
+TEMP_PATH <-
+  file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+            "HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")
+
+OHC_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, "OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv")
+
+
+INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
+PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), AERO_SCALE())
+
+OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "14_alpha_ohc_unc_nmse_big_box.txt")
+
+
+source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
+
+### Getting observational data ###
+co2_data <- get_co2_data(CO2_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+ohc_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_PATH, include_unc = T)
+obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data, ohc_data)
+
+### Calling optim ###
+best_pars <- run_optim(obs_data = obs_data,
+                       ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                       params = PARAMS,
+                       lower = c(0,               2.2 - 0.44 * 3, 1.16 - 0.118 * 3, 0),
+                       upper = c(0.5 + 0.232 * 3, 2.2 + 0.44 * 3, 1.16 + 0.118 * 3, 3),
+                       yrs = 1750:2014,
+                       vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()),
+                       error_fn = mean_T_CO2_OHC_nmse_unc,
+                       include_unc = T,
+                       method = "L-BFGS-B",
+                       output_file = OUTPUT)
+
+### Outputting individual MSEs ###
+hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, 
+                          params = PARAMS, 
+                          vals = best_pars, 
+                          yrs = 1750:2014, 
+                          vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()))
+
+T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                     hector_data = hector_data, 
+                     var = GMST(), 
+                     yrs = 1850:2014)
+CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                       hector_data = hector_data, 
+                       var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
+                       yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
+T_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data,
+                             hector_data = hector_data,
+                             var = GMST(),
+                             yrs = 1850:2014,
+                             mse_fn = mse_unc)
+OHC_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                                hector_data = hector_data, 
+                                var = "OHC", 
+                                yrs = 1957:2014,
+                                mse_fn = mse_unc)
+
+write_metric("CO2 MSE:", CO2_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("T MSE:  ", T_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("RMSE:   ", sqrt(mean(CO2_mse, T_mse)), OUTPUT) # not 100% sure this is how we want to calculate this
+write_metric("T MSE accounting for unc:", T_mse_unc, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("OHC MSE accounting for unc:", OHC_mse_unc, OUTPUT)
+write("", OUTPUT, append = TRUE)
+
+### Outputting table metrics ###
+calc_table_metrics(PARAMS, best_pars, OUTPUT)