Tried optimizing for MVSSE

results/13_alpha_ecs_ohc_mvsse.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.526231809997589
+q10_rh	2.31055396561195
+diff	1.042
+S	2.82788331898928
+alpha	1.40507672116753
+
+Objective Function Value: 91.3
+Counts: 104
+Counts: 104
+Convergence:  0
+Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH
+
+CO2 MSE: 3.4
+T MSE:   0.102
+RMSE:    1.84
+CO2 MVSSE: 236
+T MVSSE:   37.3
+OHC MVSSE: 0.385
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.62
+TCR:  1.92
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.502
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 291
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.88
+Methane ERF:               0.536
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.904
+ssp119	2041	2060	1.13
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.968
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.907
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.33
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.36
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.872
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.49
+ssp245	2081	2100	2.3
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.854
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.57
+ssp370	2081	2100	3.23
+ssp585	2021	2040	1.05
+ssp585	2041	2060	2.04
+ssp585	2081	2100	4.3

scripts/alpha_ohc_mvsse.R

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Script for experiment 13
+# Script to optimize over T, OHC and CO2 MVSSEs
+# Also includes ECS and alpha as params to optimize over
+# Uses OHC range from Matilda table rather than manuscript script
+# Author: Peter Scully
+# Date: 6/25/24
+
+### Constants and Imports ###
+
+# Importing libraries
+library(hector)
+
+# Setting up file paths
+COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
+SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts")
+RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results")
+
+CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+                      "Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv")
+TEMP_PATH <-
+  file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+            "HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")
+
+OHC_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, "OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv")
+
+
+INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
+PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS(), AERO_SCALE())
+
+OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "13_alpha_ecs_ohc_mvsse.txt")
+
+
+source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
+
+### Getting observational data ###
+co2_data <- get_co2_data(CO2_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+ohc_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_PATH, include_unc = T)
+obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data, ohc_data)
+
+### Calling optim ###
+best_pars <- run_optim(obs_data = obs_data,
+                       ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                       params = PARAMS,
+                       lower = c(0.5 - 0.232, 2.2 - 0.44, 1.16 - 0.118, 2, 0),
+                       upper = c(0.5 + 0.232, 2.2 + 0.44, 1.16 + 0.118, 5, 3),
+                       yrs = 1750:2014,
+                       vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()),
+                       error_fn = mean_T_CO2_OHC_mvsse,
+                       include_unc = T,
+                       method = "L-BFGS-B",
+                       output_file = OUTPUT)
+
+### Outputting individual MSEs ###
+hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, 
+                          params = PARAMS, 
+                          vals = best_pars, 
+                          yrs = 1750:2014, 
+                          vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()))
+
+T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                     hector_data = hector_data, 
+                     var = GMST(), 
+                     yrs = 1850:2014)
+CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                       hector_data = hector_data, 
+                       var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
+                       yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
+
+# Getting MVSSEs
+T_mvsse <- get_var_mvsse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                         hector_data = hector_data, 
+                         var = GMST(), 
+                         yrs = 1850:2014,
+                         mse_fn = mvsse)
+CO2_mvsse <- get_var_mvsse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                           hector_data = hector_data, 
+                           var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
+                           yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014),
+                           mse_fn = mvsse)
+OHC_mvsse <- get_var_mvsse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                           hector_data = hector_data, 
+                           var = "OHC", 
+                           yrs = 1957:2014,
+                           mse_fn = mvsse)
+
+write_metric("CO2 MSE:", CO2_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("T MSE:  ", T_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("RMSE:   ", sqrt(mean(CO2_mse, T_mse)), OUTPUT) # not 100% sure this is how we want to calculate this
+write_metric("CO2 MVSSE:", CO2_mvsse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("T MVSSE:  ", T_mvsse,   OUTPUT)
+write_metric("OHC MVSSE:", OHC_mvsse, OUTPUT)
+write("", OUTPUT, append = TRUE)
+
+### Outputting table metrics ###
+calc_table_metrics(PARAMS, best_pars, OUTPUT)