COVID-19 Lockdown Date Inference

Infer the true lockdown date for a country from the mobility data published by Google. Prophet time-series analysis library was used to identify changepoints.

True lockdown date is defined as the date at which the largest gradient in mobility is registered for a fixed mobility factor (work, residential, etc.)

Example

Australia (Residential Mobility)

Lockdown Date: March 13, 2020

India (Residential Mobility)

Lockdown Date: March 18, 2020

Lockdown Dates inferred from Residential Mobility

• Australia: 2020-03-13
• Brazil: 2020-03-13
• Spain: 2020-03-10
• United Kingdom: 2020-03-13
• India: 2020-03-18
• Italy: 2020-03-05
• South Korea: 2020-02-20
• Sweden: 2020-03-10
• United States: 2020-03-10

Lockdown Dates inferred from Workplace Mobility

• Australia: 2020-03-15
• Brazil: 2020-03-13
• Spain: 2020-03-10
• United Kingdom: 2020-03-13
• India: 2020-03-18
• Italy: 2020-03-07
• South Korea: 2020-04-22
• Sweden: 2020-03-10
• United States: 2020-03-10

Lockdown Dates inferred from Retail and Recreation Mobility

• Australia: 2020-03-15
• Brazil: 2020-03-15
• Spain: 2020-03-10
• United Kingdom: 2020-03-15
• India: 2020-03-18
• Italy: 2020-03-07
• South Korea: 2020-02-20
• Sweden: 2020-04-09
• United States: 2020-03-13