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rcv-wa

Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting Impact on WA Elections

Washington State has used a Top 2 primary since 2008:

The two candidates who receive the most votes in the Primary Election qualify for the General Election. A candidate must also receive at least 1% of the votes cast in that race to advance to the General Election.

Sometimes, the top two candidates in a primary don't receive a majority of the votes cast, in which case most of the people voting in the primary do not get the opportunity to vote for their chosen candidate in the general election.

This is rare: it has happened in only 8 out of 1,004 primary races in Washington since Top 2 was introduced. And in most of those cases, the two candidates advancing to the general belonged to different parties, so voters were at least able to vote for their preferred party, if not for their preferred candidate.

However, there has been at least one case where the top two primary finishers belonged to the same party and together received less than 50% of the vote:

2016/08/02 - State Treasurer
Top 2 had 48.42% of the vote:
  Duane Davidson (R): 25.09 | 58.15
  Michael Waite (R): 23.33 | 41.85
  Marko Liias (D): 20.36
  John Paul Comerford (D): 17.97
  Alec Fisken (D): 13.24
Party share:
  (Prefers Democratic Party): 51.57
  (Prefers Republican Party): 48.42

In this case, even though Democrats captured well over 51% of the total primary vote share, no Democrat made it to the general, because the three Democrats split the vote and spoiled the chance for any of them to advance.

This

20100817 - Legislative District 1 - State Representative Pos. 1 Top 2 had 49.79% of the vote: Derek Stanford (Prefers Democratic Party): 26.01 | 53.2 Dennis Richter (Prefers Republican Party): 23.78 | 46.8 Vince DeMiero (Prefers Democratic Party): 23.09 Sandy Guinn (Prefers Republican Party): 22.65 Dick Lapinski (Prefers Republican Party): 4.47 Party share: (Prefers Republican Party): 50.90 (Prefers Democratic Party): 49.10

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20100817 - Legislative District 40 - State Representative Pos. 1 Top 2 had 43.69% of the vote: Kristine Lytton (Prefers Democratic Party): 26.31 | 57.31 Mike Newman (Prefers Republican Party): 17.38 | 42.69 Tom Pasma (Prefers Democratic Party): 15.70 Dusty Gulleson (Prefers Republican Party): 15.66 Thomas Boucher (Prefers Democratic Party): 7.98 Donna R. Miller (Prefers Republican Party): 7.63 Chuck Carrell (Prefers Republican Party): 4.40 Justin Van Dyk (Prefers Democratic Party): 3.04 Doug (Yoshe) Revelle (Prefers Happiness Party): 1.91 Party share: (Prefers Democratic Party): 53.03 (Prefers Republican Party): 45.07 (Prefers Happiness Party): 1.91

20120807 - Legislative District 3 - State Representative Pos. 1 Top 2 had 49.45% of the vote: Marcus Riccelli (Prefers Democratic Party): 27.85 | 62.68 Tim Benn (Prefers G.O.P. Party): 21.60 | 37.32 Jon Snyder (Prefers Democratic Party): 19.15 Bob Apple (Prefers Democratic Party): 18.13 Morgan Oyler (Prefers Republican Party): 13.28 Party share: (Prefers Democratic Party): 65.13 (Prefers G.O.P. Party): 21.60 (Prefers Republican Party): 13.28

20120807 - Court of Appeals, Division 2, District 2 - Judge Position 2 Top 2 had 44.97% of the vote: Pamela (Pam) Loginsky : 26.76 | 47.69 Thomas Bjorgen : 18.21 | 52.31 Brendan Williams : 16.57 Michael Lynch : 14.08 Jim Foley : 13.81 Thomas (Tom) E. Weaver, Jr. : 10.57

20160802 - Lt. Governor Top 2 had 41.43% of the vote: Cyrus Habib (Prefers Democratic Party): 22.26 | 54.39 Marty McClendon (Prefers Republican Party): 19.17 | 45.61 Karen Fraser (Prefers Democratic Party): 15.66 Steve Hobbs (Prefers Democratic Party): 15.29 Phillip Yin (Prefers Republican Party): 10.70 Karen Wallace (Prefers Democratic Party): 4.47 Javier H. Figueroa (Prefers Republican Party): 4.25 Bill Penor (Prefers Republican Party): 4.00 Paul Addis (Prefers Libertarian Party): 1.99 Daniel B. Davies (States No Party Preference): 1.25 Mark Greene (Prefers Citizens Party): 0.96 Party share: (Prefers Democratic Party): 57.68 (Prefers Republican Party): 38.12 (Prefers Libertarian Party): 1.99 (States No Party Preference): 1.25 (Prefers Citizens Party): 0.96

20160802 - Superintendent of Public Instruction Top 2 had 46.71% of the vote: Erin Jones : 25.76 | 49.48 Chris Reykdal : 20.95 | 50.52 Ron Higgins : 16.65 Robin Fleming : 13.52 David Spring : 8.52 John Patterson Blair : 5.59 KumRoon (Mr. Mak) Maksirisombat : 3.79 Al Runte : 3.26 Grazyna Prouty : 1.94

20180807 - Legislative District 40 - State Representative Pos. 1 Top 2 had 49.22% of the vote: Debra Lekanoff (Prefers Democratic Party): 28.19 Michael Petrish (Prefers Republican Party): 21.03 Alex Ramel (Prefers Democratic Party): 19.13 Rud Browne (Prefers Democratic Party): 18.41 Daniel Miller (Prefers Republican Party): 6.69 Tom Pasma (Prefers Democratic Party): 6.55 Party share: (Prefers Democratic Party): 72.28 (Prefers Republican Party): 27.72

In 8 of 1004 races (0.80%), top 2 did not have majority share. In 360 of 1004 races (35.86%), top 2 were of the same party.

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