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#85 Update wording per GEW's comments
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@@ -127,19 +127,19 @@ <h2>Select year (<span class="year"></span>):</h2> | |
<div class="b5-bg" id="about"> | ||
<div class="holder tallpadded"> | ||
<h2>About this visualisation - DFES 2023</h2> | ||
<p>This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:</p> | ||
<p>This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to use, apply to their own models, review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:</p> | ||
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<ol> | ||
<li>NPg Best View – meets net zero by the late 2040s. Accelerated uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps in the early years and some use of hydrogen via hybrid heat pumps later years.</li> | ||
<li>System transformation – energy system is adapted for hydrogen heating and flexibility on supply side. Customers are assumed to not change their behaviour much including lower energy efficiency measures.</li> | ||
<li>Customer transformation – in contrast to the previous scenario, customers are keen to change their energy use behaviours and employ energy efficiency measures. Electricity is main source for heat purposes.</li> | ||
<li>Customer transformation – in contrast to the previous scenario, customers are keen to change their energy use behaviours and employ energy efficiency measures. Electricity is the main source of energy for heat purposes.</li> | ||
<li>Leading the way – gets to net zero by 2047, this is the fastest credible decarbonisation deployed on UK scale. Heating is a mixture of hydrogen and electricity with customer behaviour significantly adapted to increase system efficiency.</li> | ||
<li>Falling short – formerly known as Steady Progression. Gets to 78% of net zero by 2050. This represents the slowest decarbonisation effort with minimal customer behaviour changes.</li> | ||
</ol> | ||
<p>Details of assumptions and how these scenarios were built can be found below.</p> | ||
<p>These regional pathways together form our 2023 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2021 DFES published in December 2021.</p> | ||
<p>These regional pathways together form our 2023 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2022 DFES published in December 2022.</p> | ||
<p>Previous versions of Northern Powergrid's DFES can be found for <a href="https://odileeds.github.io/northern-powergrid/2020-DFES/index.html">2020</a>, <a href="https://odileeds.github.io/northern-powergrid/2021-DFES/index.html">2021</a> and <a href="https://odileeds.github.io/northern-powergrid/2022-DFES/index.html">2022</a>, or choose from <a href="https://odileeds.github.io/northern-powergrid/">all our visualisations</a>.</p> | ||
<p>If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Northern%20Powergrid%202023%20DFES">NPg.System.Planning@Northernpowergrid.com</a></p> | ||
<p>If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Northern%20Powergrid%202023%20DFES">System.Forecasting@Northernpowergrid.com</a></p> | ||
<h3>Northern Powergrid DFES 2023 scenario assumptions in detail</h3> | ||
<h4>NPg Best View — net zero by the late 2040s</h4> | ||
<p>This scenario world is extremely ambitious, in line with our stakeholders' vision, achieving net zero in the late 2040s. The scenario relies on intensive investment in low carbon technologies, as well as early action from government and a high level of engagement from consumers, in order to achieve aggressive rollout rates, especially of EVs and heat pumps.</p> | ||
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@@ -157,11 +157,11 @@ <h4>NPg Best View — net zero by the late 2040s</h4> | |
<dt><em>Flexibility</em></dt> | ||
<dd>For Northern Powergrid, the key purpose for using flexibility in the network is to reduce peak demand. Our Best View scenario considers customer flexibility from time of use tariffs (ToUT), active network management (ANM) schemes, contracted customer flexibility (<a href="https://www.northernpowergrid.com/DSO">Distribution System Operation</a>) and the application of smart grid solutions to our network. Based on findings from our CLDS innovation project and other market intelligence, we assume that customer price-driven flexibility with reduce demand by around 6% and 5% at EHV and HV/LV respectively during peak hours from 2025.</dd> | ||
<dt><em>Support mechanisms</em></dt> | ||
<dd>Substantional encouragement for the roll-out of heat pumps. Ban on sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Supportive environment for the adoption of distributed generation and flexibility markets.</dd> | ||
<dd>Substantial encouragement for the roll-out of heat pumps. Ban on sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Supportive environment for the adoption of distributed generation and flexibility markets.</dd> | ||
</dl> | ||
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<h4>Leading The Way — UK–wide net zero in 2047</h4> | ||
<p>This scenario shows the earliest credible date when the net zero target is met. Made of the most favourable carbon reductions from each sector and will likely have geographical variances in the way this is done - to suit the regional differences.</p> | ||
<p>This scenario shows the earliest credible date when the net zero target is met. Made of the most favourable carbon reductions from each sector and will likely have geographical variances in the way this is done - to suit regional differences.</p> | ||
<dl> | ||
<dt><em>Residential sector</em></dt> | ||
<dd>Thermal energy efficiency is brought up to high levels in mid-2020s. This is combined with quick uptake of heat pumps to 600 000 units by 2024 and thermostats being turned down by 1° C. Hydrogen networks increase hydrogen boiler installations from 2028 while gas boiler sales are banned from 2035. Upon reaching net-zero 64% of households have heat pumps. Thermal energy storage is used to offset peak demand and avoid peak energy prices. Only 10% of households have hydrogen boilers installed. All appliances are smart and highly efficient.</dd> | ||
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@@ -215,7 +215,7 @@ <h4>Falling Short — formerly known as Steady Progression</h4> | |
<h3>Geographies</h3> | ||
<p>To show data on a map we need to have unique polygons for each Primary substation. To do this we used customer postcodes to identify each ONS <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/ukgeographies/statisticalgeographies#england-and-wales">Output Area</a> (2021) supplied by each Primary substation using <a href="https://geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/ons::nspl-online-latest-centroids/about">a lookup table from ONS</a>. Output Areas with fewer than 5 customers connected to a Primary substation were excluded. This reduced data issues in the customer database e.g. mistyped customer postcodes. We constructed representative geographies for each Primary substation from the remaining Output Areas. In cases where multiple Primary substations serve the same Output Area, that Output Area was assigned to the Primary substation that serves the most customers. For the 2023 DFES, we have built new <a href="data/maps/npg-primaries-polygons-unique-2023.geojson">polygons for each Primary substation</a> in Northern Powergrid's network using the latest postcode data and the latest <a href="https://geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/ons::output-areas-2021-boundaries-ew-bfe/explore">Output Areas</a> produced from the 2021 Census.</p> | ||
<p>Knowing the Output Areas connected to each Primary allows us to also build a mapping from Primary to Local Authority.</p> | ||
<p>Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.</p> | ||
<p>Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Distribution Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.</p> | ||
<p>In the Primaries layer we have included Bulk and Grid Supply Points as "pseudo-Primaries" to give Local Authorities the full picture in their area. These pseudo-Primaries generally appear as small cut-outs. They are used to include large generation and storage connections that are not seen by Primary substations.</p> | ||
<h3>Local Authority view</h3> | ||
<p>The model predictions have been created by Primary substation and that is the definitive view. The Local Authority view is constructed from the Primary substation values. We have found the proportion of a Primary substation's customers in each Local Authority district (as defined in April 2019) by adding up the customers in each Output Area belonging to a specific Local Authority district. For some parameters (e.g. electric vehicles) the values from the Primary substations are apportioned to each Local Authority District and then summated into totals. For values which can't be summated (e.g. Peak demand) we have shown the maximum value for any Primary substation that serves a Local Authority.</p> | ||
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