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Conference call October 9
Approximately 40 participants joined from a range of sectors, including academia in the US and UK, the US Federal Government, and WHO.
Anne Cori (Imperial College) presented on Ebola modeling work that is ongoing at the Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analytics. The team provides regular situation reports to WHO HQs and to other partners, including reports on broad trends in incidence, hospital bed demand, and vaccine demand. They are also conducting ad hoc analysis to address specific questions relevant to the response. For additional details, contact Dr. Cori at [email protected].
James Munday (LSHTM) presented on efforts to use a gravity model to forecast the risk of Ebola cases in each health zone in the region of the current outbreak, with a focus on previously unaffected zones. These results inform the planning of phase 3 clinical trials, which enroll participants in regions with no previous Ebola vaccination. For additional details, contact Dr. Munday at [email protected] or visit https://epiforecasts.io/ebola-drc/.
Following the presentations, participants discussed alternatives to using a gravity model for spatial forecasting; whether the Ebola models are adequately capturing changes in delays in reporting; and potential causes of spikes in reproductive numbers.
To continue coordination, please join our slack channel (ebolamcg.slack.com) at: https://join.slack.com/t/ebolamcg/shared_invite/enQtNzIwMDM1OTIwMDgxLTg4ZDEwMDA0MDAxODE2NTdmZmQxMmM5MDMyNmY3YzI2NDUwNDhhM2M1YWYyMjU3MDY3ZDE1ZjkzZGFmMzg5NDg
Slides from this call can be found on the ebola-private GitHub page here.
Ebola DRC Modeling Coordination Call
October 9 from 10:00-11:00 ET
To join by zoom: https://jh.zoom.us/j/570864905
To join by phone in the US: 1-646-876-9923 code 570864905#
To find a local phone number: https://zoom.us/u/aC0zRKLir
Co-hosted by the Fogarty Center, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, and the Outbreak Science and Model Implementation Working Group
Anticipated Agenda:
11:00 – 11:05 Opening comments
11:05 – 11:25 Dr. Anne Cori of Imperial College
11:25 – 11:45 Dr. James Munday of LSHTM: Abstract: A candidate ebola vaccine from Johnson and Johnson is ready for Phase 3 trials. But with a vaccine already in widespread use, a trial site must be chosen in a region where the outbreak has not yet reached. Based on a spatiotemporal model of transmission that estimates the connectivity of different health zones, we have developed a spatial forecasting tool to identify the currently unaffected areas that cases are most likely to occur in the future. The forecasts are updated daily and published on a dedicated website (https://epiforecasts.io/ebola-drc/), with the ultimate aim of supporting trial site selection.
11:45 – 12:00 Stakeholders (modelers, public health professionals, others) invited to ask questions, make suggestions, and share ideas. Broader discussion of current challenges and open questions in directing the response are also welcome.