Update Feb 27th

General update

.Rhistory

@@ -1,68 +1,3 @@
-) ,data=d)
-precis(m4.5)
-# Same Model in STAN
-stan_m4.6 <- "
-data {
-int<lower = 1> N;
-vector[N] height;
-vector[N] weight_s;
-vector[N] weight_s2;
-}
-transformed data{
-real bar_x1;
-real x1_sd;
-vector[N] x1_std;
-real y_sd;
-bar_x1 = mean(weight_s);
-x1_sd = sd(weight_s);
-x1_std = (weight_s - bar_x1)/x1_sd; // centered and scaled
-y_sd = sd(height);
-}
-parameters {
-real alpha_std;
-real beta1_std;
-real beta3_std;
-real <lower=0> sigma;
-}
-transformed parameters {
-vector[N] mu;
-for (i in 1:N)
-mu[i] = alpha_std + beta1_std*weight_s[i] +
-beta3_std*weight_s2[i];
-}
-model {
-// priors
-alpha_std ~ normal(0,20);
-beta1_std ~ normal(0,2);
-beta3_std ~ normal(0,2);
-sigma ~ uniform(1,7);
-// sigma ~ normal(5,1.5);
-// sigma ~ exponential(1/y_sd);
-// model
-height ~normal(mu,sigma);
-}
-generated quantities {
-real alpha;
-real beta1;
-real beta3;
-alpha = alpha_std - (beta1_std*bar_x1)/x1_sd
-+ (beta3_std*bar_x1^2)/x1_sd^2;
-beta1 = beta1_std/x1_sd - 2*(beta3_std*bar_x1)/x1_sd^2;
-beta3 = beta3_std/x1_sd^2;
-}"
-data_m4.6  <- list(
-N = nrow(d),
-height = d$height,
-weight_s = d$weight_s,
-weight_s2 = d$weight_s2
-)
-fit_m4.6 <- stan(data = data_m4.6,
-model_code = stan_m4.6,
-chains = 4,
-iter = 2000)
-print(fit_m4.6, pars = c("alpha","beta1", "beta3", "sigma"))
-print(fit_m4.6, pars = c("alpha_std","beta1_std", "beta3_std", "sigma"))
-precis(m4.5)
 traceplot(fit_m4.6, pars = "sigma")
 # Same Model in STAN
 stan_m4.6 <- "
@@ -510,3 +445,68 @@ plot(X,Y, col=cols[Z+1], lwd=3)
 abline(lm(Y[Z==1]~X[Z==1]), col=2, lwd=3)
 abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3)
 abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3)
+library(rethinking)
+library(tidyverse)
+library(dplyr)
+library(ggplot2)
+library(rstan)
+data(WaffleDivorce)
+d <-WaffleDivorce
+# standardizevariables
+d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce)
+d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage)
+d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage)
+View(d)
+standardize(d$Divorce)
+help(standardize)
+??standardize
+data(WaffleDivorce)
+d <-WaffleDivorce
+# standardizevariables
+d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce)
+d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage)
+d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage)
+View(d)
+mean(d$D)
+sd(d$D)
+density(d$D)
+plot(density(d$D))
+marriage
+density(d$Marriage)
+plot(density(d$Marriage))
+m5.1 <-quap(
+alist(
+D ~dnorm(mu,sigma),
+mu <-a+bA*A,
+a ~dnorm(0,0.2),
+bA ~dnorm(0,0.5),
+sigma ~dexp(1)
+) ,data=d)
+precis(m5.1)
+data(WaffleDivorce)
+d <-WaffleDivorce
+# standardizevariables
+d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce)
+d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage)
+d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage)
+dat <- list(
+D = d$D,
+M = d$M,
+A = d$A
+)
+m_DMA <- quap(
+alist(
+D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma)
+mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A,
+m_DMA <- quap(
+alist(
+D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma),
+mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A,
+a ~dnorm(0,.2),
+bM~dnorm(0,.5),
+bA~dnorm(0,.5),
+sigma~dexp(1)
+), data=dat )
+precis(m_DMA)
+precis(m_DMA)
+plot(precis(m_DMA))

.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/pcs/windowlayoutstate.pper

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 {
     "left": {
-        "splitterpos": 107,
+        "splitterpos": 127,
         "topwindowstate": "NORMAL",
-        "panelheight": 803,
-        "windowheight": 841
+        "panelheight": 959,
+        "windowheight": 997
     },
     "right": {
-        "splitterpos": 503,
+        "splitterpos": 600,
         "topwindowstate": "NORMAL",
-        "panelheight": 803,
-        "windowheight": 841
+        "panelheight": 959,
+        "windowheight": 997
     }
 }

.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
     "path": "C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/25. Project 2022/Statistical-Thinking-2023/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd",
     "project_path": "Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd",
     "type": "quarto_markdown",
-    "hash": "1647904797",
+    "hash": "4113012867",
     "contents": "",
     "dirty": false,
     "created": 1673908998203.0,
@@ -16,17 +16,17 @@
         "Source": "Source",
         "docOutlineVisible": "1",
         "rmdVisualCollapsedChunks": "",
-        "rmdVisualModeLocation": "16884:27202",
-        "cursorPosition": "924,0",
+        "rmdVisualModeLocation": "17531:17209",
+        "cursorPosition": "983,0",
         "scrollLine": "0",
         "docOutlineSize": "118"
     },
     "folds": "",
-    "lastKnownWriteTime": 1675828299,
+    "lastKnownWriteTime": 1675884203,
     "encoding": "UTF-8",
     "collab_server": "",
     "source_window": "",
-    "last_content_update": 1675828299557,
+    "last_content_update": 1675884203764,
     "read_only": false,
     "read_only_alternatives": []
 }

.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30-contents

@@ -938,3 +938,54 @@ abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3)
 
 abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3)
 ```
+
+Divorce Database and Waffle Houses
+
+```{r}
+data(WaffleDivorce)
+
+d <-WaffleDivorce
+
+# standardizevariables
+d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce)
+d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage)
+d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage)
+
+dat <- list(
+  D = d$D,
+  M = d$M,
+  A = d$A
+)
+```
+
+```{r}
+m_DMA <- quap(
+  alist(
+    D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma),
+    mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A,
+    a ~dnorm(0,.2),
+    bM~dnorm(0,.5),
+    bA~dnorm(0,.5),
+    sigma~dexp(1)
+  ), data=dat )
+```
+
+```{r}
+m5.1 <-quap(
+  alist(
+    D ~dnorm(mu,sigma),
+    mu <-a+bA*A,
+    a ~dnorm(0,0.2),
+    bA ~dnorm(0,0.5),
+    sigma ~dexp(1)
+  ) ,data=d)
+```
+
+```{r}
+precis(m_DMA)
+plot(precis(m_DMA))
+```
+
+```{r}
+precis(m5.1)
+```

.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/EA93BB00

@@ -5,8 +5,8 @@
     "Source": "Source",
     "docOutlineVisible": "1",
     "rmdVisualCollapsedChunks": "",
-    "rmdVisualModeLocation": "16884:27202",
-    "cursorPosition": "924,0",
+    "rmdVisualModeLocation": "17531:17209",
+    "cursorPosition": "983,0",
     "scrollLine": "0",
     "docOutlineSize": "118"
 }

.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/INDEX

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FCausalAnalysis_v9.Rmd="B1529C46"
 C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FMetaPolls_vFINAL.Rmd="12DA31F2"
 C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FSamplinginPractice_v7.Rmd="706557E6"
 C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FStockMarket%2FAsset_Analysis_v23.Rmd="8C7CB8DC"

.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c5ns7cfqmp4sr/00000f.csv

@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ Attaching package: ‘rethinking’
   print.tbl_lazy     
   print.tbl_sql      
 "
-"2","── Attaching packages ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.3.2 ──"
+"2","── Attaching packages ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.3.2 ──"
 "2","✔ ggplot2 3.4.0      ✔ purrr   0.3.5 
 ✔ tibble  3.1.8      ✔ dplyr   1.0.10
 ✔ tidyr   1.2.1      ✔ stringr 1.4.1 
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Attaching package: ‘rethinking’
 "2","Warning: package ‘readr’ was built under R version 4.2.2"
 "2","Warning: package ‘purrr’ was built under R version 4.2.2"
 "2","Warning: package ‘dplyr’ was built under R version 4.2.2"
-"2","── Conflicts ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
+"2","── Conflicts ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
 ✖ tidyr::extract() masks rstan::extract()
 ✖ dplyr::filter()  masks stats::filter()
 ✖ dplyr::lag()     masks stats::lag()

.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/paths

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/CausalAnalysis_v9.Rmd="BBEEF53F"
 C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/MetaPolls_vFINAL.Rmd="040CBFF0"
 C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/SamplinginPractice_v7.Rmd="C44D6AD8"
 C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/StockMarket/Asset_Analysis_v23.Rmd="0B603800"

Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd

@@ -938,3 +938,54 @@ abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3)
 
 abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3)
 ```
+
+Divorce Database and Waffle Houses
+
+```{r}
+data(WaffleDivorce)
+
+d <-WaffleDivorce
+
+# standardizevariables
+d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce)
+d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage)
+d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage)
+
+dat <- list(
+  D = d$D,
+  M = d$M,
+  A = d$A
+)
+```
+
+```{r}
+m_DMA <- quap(
+  alist(
+    D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma),
+    mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A,
+    a ~dnorm(0,.2),
+    bM~dnorm(0,.5),
+    bA~dnorm(0,.5),
+    sigma~dexp(1)
+  ), data=dat )
+```
+
+```{r}
+m5.1 <-quap(
+  alist(
+    D ~dnorm(mu,sigma),
+    mu <-a+bA*A,
+    a ~dnorm(0,0.2),
+    bA ~dnorm(0,0.5),
+    sigma ~dexp(1)
+  ) ,data=d)
+```
+
+```{r}
+precis(m_DMA)
+plot(precis(m_DMA))
+```
+
+```{r}
+precis(m5.1)
+```