first revision draft

helioforecast · Aug 28, 2020 · 3197416 · 3197416
1 parent c1af887
commit 3197416
Show file tree

Hide file tree

Showing 5 changed files with 646 additions and 834 deletions.
diff --git a/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/README.md b/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/README.md
@@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ This code creates results, figures, and animations for the paper Möstl et al. (
 
 There are 2 jupyter notebooks, 
 
-(1)  cme_rate.ipynb  calculates the ICME rate for solar cycle 25
+(1)  icme_rate.ipynb  calculates the ICME rate for solar cycle 25 and Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbit trajectory plots.
 
 
-(2)  psp_3dcore.pynb simulates PSP double crossings with 3DCORE
+(2)  psp_3dcore.pynb simulates PSP double crossings with 3DCORE.
 
 
 

diff --git a/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/cme_rate.ipynb → Moestl2020_PSP_rate/icme_rate.ipynb b/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/cme_rate.ipynb → Moestl2020_PSP_rate/icme_rate.ipynb
diff --git a/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/cme_rate.py → Moestl2020_PSP_rate/icme_rate.py b/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/cme_rate.py → Moestl2020_PSP_rate/icme_rate.py
@@ -529,7 +529,7 @@
 
 # ### get yearly ICME rates at each spacecraft
 
-# In[7]:
+# In[6]:
 
 
 #define dates of January 1 from 2007 to 2020
@@ -654,7 +654,7 @@
 
 # ### get Richardson and Cane ICME rate for comparison
 
-# In[8]:
+# In[7]:
 
 
 #convert times in dataframe from richardson and cane list to numpy array
@@ -698,7 +698,7 @@
 
 # ### **Figure 1** plot ICME frequency cycle 24
 
-# In[9]:
+# In[8]:
 
 
 sns.set_context("talk")     
@@ -829,7 +829,7 @@
 
 # ## solar cycle 23
 
-# In[10]:
+# In[9]:
 
 
 print('cycle 23\n')
@@ -913,7 +913,7 @@
 
 # ## solar cycle 24
 
-# In[11]:
+# In[10]:
 
 
 print('cycle 24\n')
@@ -972,7 +972,7 @@
 # ## **Figure 2** correlation SSN with ICME rate and fit
 # plot SSN vs ICME rate, linear fit with confidence interval
 
-# In[70]:
+# In[19]:
 
 
 #add spots23/24 and rc_rate23/24 into 1 array for correlation
@@ -1033,8 +1033,8 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 #with these results from the linear fit, make a conversion function from ssn to icme_rate
 def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):    
     rate=linfit.slope*ssn+linfit.intercept    
-    rate_low=(linfit.slope-1*linfit.stderr)*ssn+linfit.intercept    
-    rate_up=(linfit.slope+1*linfit.stderr)*ssn+linfit.intercept    
+    rate_low=(linfit.slope-1*linfit.stderr)*ssn+linfit.intercept    - mean_stddev
+    rate_up=(linfit.slope+1*linfit.stderr)*ssn+linfit.intercept    + mean_stddev
     return rate, rate_low, rate_up
 
 
@@ -1063,6 +1063,10 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 #sns.regplot(spots_corr,rc_rate_corr, x_ci='ci',ci=95,label=r'fit confidence 2$\mathrm{\sigma}$',truncate=False)
 #sns.regplot(spots_corr,rc_rate_corr, x_ci='ci',ci=68,label=r'fit confidence 1$\mathrm{\sigma}$',truncate=False)
 
+
+
+
+xlinfit=np.arange(0,350)
 #1 sigma interval by using mean difference as +/- to linear fit
 
 ylinfit_1=(linfit.slope)*xlinfit+linfit.intercept+mean_stddev
@@ -1075,8 +1079,6 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 
 
-
-xlinfit=np.arange(0,350)
 ylinfit=linfit.slope*xlinfit+linfit.intercept
 plt.plot(xlinfit,ylinfit,'-k',label='linear fit')
 plt.plot(xlinfit,np.zeros(len(xlinfit))+52,'--k',alpha=0.5)
@@ -1091,7 +1093,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 # ## predictions for solar cycle 25: SSN and ICME rate
 # ### 1. Mean cycle model
 
-# In[13]:
+# In[20]:
 
 
 # from heliocats import stats as hs
@@ -1210,7 +1212,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 print(ic_rate_25_m_std)
 
 
-# In[14]:
+# In[21]:
 
 
 ########################################################### 2. SC25 panel prediction (SC25PP)
@@ -1329,7 +1331,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 print(ic_rate_25_pp_std)
 
 
-# In[15]:
+# In[22]:
 
 
 ################################### SC25MC
@@ -1427,7 +1429,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 # ## **Figure 3** ICME rate predictions
 
-# In[45]:
+# In[23]:
 
 
 sns.set_context("talk")     
@@ -1523,7 +1525,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 plt.savefig('results/plots_rate/fig3_sc25_predictions.png', dpi=300)
 
 
-# In[17]:
+# In[24]:
 
 
 #Extra plot for solar cycle comparison
@@ -1592,7 +1594,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 # ### make PSP and Solar Orbiter position
 
-# In[18]:
+# In[25]:
 
 
 frame='HEEQ'
@@ -1682,7 +1684,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 plt.xlabel('AU')
 
 
-# In[19]:
+# In[26]:
 
 
 #get the speed in hourly resolution
@@ -1712,7 +1714,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 print('psp maximum speed ',np.max(psp_highres_speed),' km/s at ',psp_highres_r[np.argmax(psp_highres_speed)], ' AU')
 
 
-# In[20]:
+# In[27]:
 
 
 #%matplotlib inline
@@ -1781,7 +1783,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 plt.savefig('results/psp_orbits.png', dpi=100)
 
 
-# In[21]:
+# In[28]:
 
 
 #same thing for Solar Orbiter
@@ -1885,7 +1887,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 # first calculate smooth functions for the icme rate including the derived error bars in Figure 3
 
-# In[22]:
+# In[29]:
 
 
 #fit yearly ICME rates again with hathaway function to get to daily resolution including errors
@@ -1945,7 +1947,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 # Figure out how many ICMEs PSP sees < 0.1 AU, < 0.2 AU, < 0.3 AU for the predicted ICME rates
 
-# In[23]:
+# In[30]:
 
 
 #make position new in order to be of similar range with ICME rate spline fits
@@ -2076,7 +2078,7 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 # ## **Figure 4** PSP Solar Orbiter distance and ICME rate
 
-# In[24]:
+# In[32]:
 
 
 sns.set_context("talk")     
@@ -2181,3 +2183,15 @@ def ssn_to_rate(ssn,fitresult):
 
 
 
+
+# In[ ]:
+
+
+
+
+
+# In[ ]:
+
+
+
+
diff --git a/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/psp_3dcore.ipynb b/Moestl2020_PSP_rate/psp_3dcore.ipynb