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avallecam authored Apr 2, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -50,10 +50,9 @@ But in an ongoing outbreak, the population does not remain entirely susceptible

## Introduction

Quantifying transmission metrics at the start of an outbreak can give important information on the strength of transmission (reproduction number) and the speed of transmission ([growth rate](../learners/reference.md#growth), doubling/halving time). To estimate these key metrics using case data we must account for delays between the date of infections and date of reported cases. In an outbreak situation, data are usually available on reported dates only, therefore we must use estimation methods to account for these delays when trying to understand changes in transmission over time.
The transmission intensity of an outbreak is quantified using two key metrics: the reproduction number, which informs on the strength of the transmission by indicating how many new cases are expected from each existing case; and the [growth rate](../learners/reference.md#growth), which informs on the speed of the transmission by indicating how rapidly the outbreak is spreading or declining (doubling/halving time) within a population. To estimate these key metrics using case data we must account for delays between the date of infections and date of reported cases. In an outbreak situation, data are usually available on reported dates only, therefore we must use estimation methods to account for these delays when trying to understand changes in transmission over time. For more details on the distinction between speed and strength of transmission and implications for control, see [Dushoff & Park, 2021](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2020.1556).

In the next tutorials we will focus on how to use the functions in `{EpiNow2}` to estimate transmission metrics of case data. We will not cover the theoretical background of the models or inference framework, for details on these concepts see the [vignette](https://epiforecasts.io/EpiNow2/dev/articles/estimate_infections.html).
For more details on the distinction between speed and strength of transmission and implications for control, see [Dushoff & Park, 2021](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2020.1556).


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