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move uncertainty task from episode 1 to episode 2
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avallecam committed Mar 21, 2024
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions episodes/delays-functions.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -467,6 +467,8 @@ epinow_estimates <- epinow(
plot(epinow_estimates)
```

`{EpiNow2}` can also include the uncertainty around each summary statistic. We invite you to read this discussion on: [How to adapt `{epiparameter}` uncertainty entries to `{EpiNow2}`](https://github.com/epiverse-trace/epiparameter/discussions/218)?

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15 changes: 8 additions & 7 deletions episodes/delays-reuse.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -534,7 +534,7 @@ An interesting element is the `method_assess` nested entry, which refers to the
covid_serialint$method_assess
```

We will explore these concepts at the end!
We will explore these concepts following episodes!

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Expand All @@ -545,20 +545,18 @@ We will explore these concepts at the end!

A severity parameter like the duration of hospitalisation could add to the information needed about the bed capacity in response to an outbreak ([Cori et al., 2017](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2016.0371)).

Also, `{EpiNow2}` can also include the uncertainty around each summary statistic, like the standard deviation of the standard deviation.
<!-- Also, `{EpiNow2}` can also include the uncertainty around each summary statistic, like the standard deviation of the standard deviation. -->

For Ebola:

- What is the reported *point estimate* and *uncertainty* of the mean duration of health care and case isolation?
- What is the reported *point estimate* of the mean duration of health care and case isolation?

::::::::::::::::: hint

An informative delay should measure the time from symptom onset to recovery or death.

Find a way to access the whole `{epiparameter}` database and find how that delay may be stored.

Explore within `<epidist>$summary_stats$...`.

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Expand All @@ -577,14 +575,17 @@ ebola_severity <- epidist_db(
# point estimate
ebola_severity$summary_stats$mean
```

Check that for some `{epiparameter}` entries you will also have the *uncertainty* around the *point estimate* of each summary statistic:

```{r}
# 95% confidence intervals
ebola_severity$summary_stats$mean_ci
# limits of the confidence intervals
ebola_severity$summary_stats$mean_ci_limits
```

We invite you to read this discussion on: [How to adapt `{epiparamter}` uncertainty entries to `{EpiNow2}`](https://github.com/epiverse-trace/epiparameter/discussions/218)?

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