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book/thesis_projects/BSc/2024_Q2_ElineMol_CEG/Deliverables/1_introduction_emol.ipynb

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+{
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+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "213a76bd-9423-4331-9d41-42533d04553f",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "# The Impact of Climate Change on the Groundwater Recharge in the Sonoran Desert\n",
+    "By Eline Mol"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "fde7a748-b9e7-4bd0-8256-a52485db06e9",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## 1 Introduction\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Over the last century, the Earth’s climate has warmed more than 1 °C. In some regions more drought will occur, while other regions will be wetter (IPCC, 2021). In times limited of rainfall, groundwater storages will act as a natural buffer. These storages will provide against water scarcity, limiting evaporation in areas with shallow water tables and sustaining river and wetland baseflows which supports ecosystems and biodiversity (de Graaf et al., 2017). The process of water infiltrating into soil layers and replenishing groundwater is called groundwater recharge. Generally, groundwater is recharged through processes that are controlled by: geology, temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, humidity and land use (Castillo et al., 2021). \n",
+    "\n",
+    "Arid regions such as the Sonoran Desert rely on groundwater as a primary water source according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR, 2023). However, long-term groundwater over-pumping poses a significant threat to this resource (PPIC, n.d.). In the Sonoran Desert region, groundwater management has been a pressing priority for decades. For instance, Arizona started regulating groundwater in its largest cities under a new law in 1980, the Groundwater Management Code. This law stated a goal of achieving a long-term balance between the amount of groundwater pumping and the amount of replenishing these buffers (James, 2021). In 2014, California adopted a similar law (Sustainable Groundwater Management Act) to manage and regulate its groundwater sources, as attempt to prevent and recover groundwater depleted basins (Mason, 2014). In Mexico, the Law of the Nation’s Water (LAN) is adopted in 1992, stating the management and regulation of water entitlement. It states the appropriation, allocation and concession of groundwater rights (Cruz-Ayala & Megdal, 2020).\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Due to growing concerns of the groundwater availability in the future, this report researches what the impact of climate change will be on the groundwater recharge in the Sonoran Desert. The analysis involves determining the threshold for groundwater recharge in the region and projecting future groundwater recharge by simulating three climate scenarios from CMIP6 in the PCR-GlobWB model. \n",
+    "\n",
+    "This report consists of five chapters. The first chapter serves as the introduction, outlining the research motivation, the problem analysis and the objectives of this study. Chapter 2 details the methodology of this study, focusing on the eWaterCycle platform and its application of the hydrological model PCR-GlobWB. Chapter 3 contains the results generated by this model. Chapter 4 includes a discussion, evaluating the results and reflecting on possible implications. Finally, chapter 5 concludes the report, gives recommendations for the future and provides the answer to the research question."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "c13383fd-cbe8-441f-9b65-5fa4b2a93b1a",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### 1.1 Problem Analysis\n",
+    "\n",
+    "The Sonoran Desert is an arid region with a subtropical climate in the Southwestern of the United States and Northwestern of Mexico. According to the National Park Service (NPS, 2024) the desert covers approximately 260 000 km2 of this region, as shown in Figure 1. In this region, the hydrological system includes many streams and two primary rivers, the Colorado River and the Gila River, Figure 2. A majority of the smaller streams remain dry for most of the year (Kampf et al., 2018). \n",
+    "\n",
+    "Groundwater serves as the primary water source in the Sonoran Desert region, supporting both the urban, environmental and agricultural sector. The agricultural  sector uses the biggest amount of the available water, about 75% of the available groundwater and surface water (ADWR, 2023; PPIC, n.d.). However, according to the Public Policy Institute of California (n.d.) consistently over pumping is now threatening this resource. \n",
+    "\t\n",
+    "The Sonoran Desert receives an average annual precipitation of 76-500 mm. Majority of the rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon thunderstorms. However, it also receives frequent low-intensity winter rains. Precipitation generally increases with elevation, due to orographic effects. A significant amount is occurring as snowfall. Precipitation is an important factor to recharge groundwater. Another critical factor is temperature, which influences the rate of evapotranspiration. High temperatures increase the rate of evapotranspiration, reducing the amount of water available for groundwater recharge (Dimitriadou & Nikolakopoulos, 2021). During the summer, air temperatures exceed 40°C. The temperatures in the winter are mild and mostly free of frost (NPS, 2024). \n",
+    "\n",
+    "It is inevitable that climate change will have an impact on the Sonoran Desert region. Changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures are likely to influence groundwater recharge processes. Therefore, this research focuses on the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge.\n",
+    "\n"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "e2aec37b-6249-4fc5-a96a-d3335128bf1f",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### 1.2 Research Objective\n",
+    "\n",
+    "It is expected that climate change will have an influence on the hydrological system of the Sonoran Desert. Due to developments and collaborations in hydrological models, more insight can be given on what the impact of climate change will be. This study elaborates on the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sonoran Desert. This will be done by answering the following main research question:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "*“How will climate change influence groundwater recharge in the Gila River basin in the Sonoran Desert over the 21st century?”*\n",
+    "\n",
+    "The main research question will be answered by simulating the groundwater recharge using the PCR-GlobWB model. Sub-questions to answer the main research question are as follows:\n",
+    "\n",
+    "•\tWhat is the groundwater recharge threshold?\n",
+    "\n",
+    "•\tWhat forcings are of importance in the Sonoran Desert?\n",
+    "\n",
+    "•\tWhich parameters will have an influence on the groundwater recharge?\n",
+    "\n",
+    "•\tFor which climate scenarios will groundwater recharge be simulated, and which scenario will have the biggest impact?\n",
+    "\n",
+    "When  research questions have been answered by using the PCR-GlobWB model, similar steps will be taken with another model. The wflow model can be used to compare its results with the PCR-GlobWB model. This will give insights into the accuracy of the models and their outcomes.\n",
+    "\n"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
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+}

book/thesis_projects/BSc/2024_Q2_ElineMol_CEG/Deliverables/2_methodology_emol.ipynb

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+{
+ "cells": [
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "560c1047-0b25-4d5d-96ab-0d969180759f",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "# The Impact of Climate Change on the Groundwater Recharge in the Sonoran Desert\n",
+    "By Eline Mol"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "58619540-4ec2-43f0-9f8d-0face55dcd31",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "## 2 Methodology\n",
+    "\n",
+    "This study will focus on the impact of climate change on the groundwater recharge in the Sonoran Desert. To assess the impact, the eWaterCycle platform will be used. In eWaterCycle, hydrological models are made FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable and reproducible) by adding a Basic Model Interface (BMI). These models can be run through the open interface of eWaterCycle and run using Jupyter notebooks provided by the platform. The eWaterCycle platform currently supports the following hydrological models: PCR-GlobWB, wflow, Hype, LISFLOOD, MARRMoT and WALRUS. To predict the effects on the groundwater recharge, the PCR-GlobWB model will be used (Hut et al., 2022).  "
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "bd480fa8-414d-4e21-9ef9-c0fe9665d888",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### 2.1 PCR-GlobWb\n",
+    "\n",
+    "The PCR-GlobWB model is a grid based, global hydrology and water resources model. PCR-GlobWB integrates water use of: sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption and return flows. This model can simulate soil moisture storage, water exchange between the soil, atmosphere and the underlying groundwater reservoir. All of these uses are determined at every time step and are connected to the simulated hydrology. In Figure 3 a simplified overview of a PCR-GlobWB cell can be found to give an impression of all the fluxes in a system. PCR-GlobWB simulates at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minute, which is ~10x10 km at the equator (Sutanudjaja et al., 2018).\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Forcing for models such as PCR-GlobWB in eWaterCycle is accessible through ERA5 datasets (Hut et al., 2022). ERA5 provides detailed recorded data on the global atmosphere, the land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards (Hersbach et al., 2020). The ESMValTool in eWaterCycle is used to pre-process the ERA5 dataset, enabling its direct application in the hydrological model. In this research, precipitation and temperature serve as the input for forcing. Additionally, a parameter set including is required as model input, which includes the catchment area and the time period (Hut et al., 2022). Figure 4 presents a flow chart of the PCR-GlobWB model, with ERA5 and a parameter set as input."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "f572dad4-fb1b-4e9a-bb25-09b4ebda0f54",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### 2.2 Climate Projections\n",
+    "\n",
+    "To evaluate the potential impact of climate change, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) will be used for climate simulations. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are selected for analysis: SSP1-2.6, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5. These pathways correspond to an optimistic scenario limiting the future warming to 2.0°C, a divided middle road limiting the warming to 4.1°C and the worst-case scenario which limits the future warming to 5.0°C, respectively (Hausfather, 2019). Appendix A explains the narratives of each of the selected SSPs. Figure 5 provides a flowchart of the PCR-GlobWB model with CMIP6 as forcing input."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "f110523d-f7d7-4ccc-8e8f-73ff2f6a8f04",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "### 2.3 Groundwater Recharge Threshold\n",
+    "\n",
+    "To evaluate which climate scenario will have the greatest impact, a threshold for groundwater recharge must be defined. In arid regions on regional scale, the baseflow discharge of rivers is often indicative of the minimum groundwater recharge that is required to sustain streamflow (Schilling et al., 2021). If the groundwater recharge falls below the threshold, there will not be enough water to sustain the streamflow.  \n",
+    "\n",
+    "As mentioned in section 1.1, the Gila River spans a greater stretch within the Sonoran Desert compared to the Colorado River. The Colorado River extends to the Rocky Mountains and flows through multiple regions, which can be categorized into the Upper basin and the Lower basin. The discharge in the basins is influenced by several factors, including the amount of precipitation and milder temperatures (Salehabadi et al., 2020). Appendix B provides the mean temperature, mean precipitation and mean runoff of the two basins. Since many factors influencing the discharge of the Colorado river originate outside the Sonoran Desert, this research focuses on the Gila River.\n",
+    "\n",
+    "Near the city Yuma, the Gila River converges with the Colorado River. Just before this convergence, the Gila River’s baseflow is a determining factor for assessing the groundwater recharge threshold. Based on the graph provided in Figure 6 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS, n.d.), the baseflow at this point is measured at 0 m3/s. This could serve as the groundwater recharge threshold. However, a threshold of zero implies that no groundwater recharge would be required. To provide a more realistic assessment, the groundwater extraction by sectors such as agriculture will also be take into consideration.\n"
+   ]
+  },
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