The Economist's tracker for covid-19 excess deaths

This repository contains the data behind The Economist’s tracker for covid-19 excess deaths (which is free to read), and the code that we have used to clean, analyse and present the numbers.

Scripts and output data

Our tracker uses two different R scripts to calculate excess deaths in each country:

• cleaning_script.R: this imports raw data from various sources, and exports a weekly or monthly historical time series of total_deaths and covid_deaths going back to 2015 (or the earliest available year). If the source that we use for total deaths has also modelled and provided a baseline for expected_deaths, we include that too. We remove any weeks or months in which the data might be incomplete. The files are exported to /output-data/historical-deaths/.

• excess_deaths_script.R: this imports the time series files from /output-data/historical-deaths/, and calculates the weekly or monthly expected_deaths for each country (unless a modelled baseline has already been provided). Our own modelled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020. We have exported these models to /output-data/expected-deaths-models/. We then use these baselines to calculate excess_deaths, and export the files to /output-data/excess-deaths/.

There's also an additional script that summarises the data for some graphics in the article:

• interactive_script.R: this imports the files for excess deaths for a list of countries and creates the data for the small multiple chart and the table featured in the article. The files are exported to /output-data/interactive/.

Source data

Our tracker uses data from a number of statistical bureaus, health ministries and government departments. For each country, you can find the relevant source documents in the /source-data/ folder, including some old versions in each country's /archive/ folder. Some of the data are automatically downloaded from official websites in cleaning_script.R, an R file that formats the data consistently across countries.

We have also collated a full list of sources and links in a file called list_of_sources.csv. In general we have tried to use the most expansive official estimate of covid-19 deaths available in each country. Belgium, Britain and Sweden all publish restrospectively adjusted estimates of when deaths occurred or were registered, rather than when they were reported. For most other countries, we have used the figures maintained by the ECDC and Our World In Data. We have subtracted one day from the ECDC's time series (since it uses 10am CET as its cut-off point).

Below is a summary of our sources for each country.

Austria

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Statistik Austria	Last analysed to November 15th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	Statistik Austria	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2016-19

Belgium

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Statbel	Last analysed to November 3rd
covid_deaths	Sciensano	Retrospectively adjusted, to use day that death occurred
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2016-19

Brazil

We have used estimates from Vital Strategies, a non-profit, which has compared total_deaths from the Registro Civil for 2019-20 to those from the Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) for 2015-19. Vital Strategies' estimates account for possible under-reporting in each region by analysing the ratio of total_deaths in 2019 between the Registro Civil and SIM, and adjusting the 2020 Registro Civil data accordingly.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Vital Strategies / Registro Civil / SIM	Last analysed to October 3rd
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	Vital Strategies	Weekly modelled baseline, trained by Vital Strategies

Britain

We have combined English and Welsh data from the Office for National Statistics with data from the National Records of Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Scotland reports data two days after everywhere else. We have used the ONS and NISRA dates as our weekly ending point.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	ONS / NRS / NISRA	Last analysed to November 13th
covid_deaths	ONS / NRS / NISRA	Retrospectively adjusted, to use day that death was registered
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Chile

To follow the latest census in 2017, from which we are importing population estimates, we have grouped the regions of Ñuble and Biobio together. We have imported regional covid_deaths from a GitHub repository maintained by Data Science Research Peru.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Registro Civil	Last analysed to November 17th
covid_deaths	Ministerio de Salud / DSRP
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Denmark

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Danmarks Statistik	Last analysed to November 10th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Ecuador

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Registro Civil	Last analysed to September 30th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2018-19

France

France's national covid_deaths, which we are importing from the ECDC, includes deaths in nursing homes. But the regional covid_deaths, which we are importing from Santé Publique France, only include deaths in hospitals. Santé Publique France's hospital data begin on March 18th. Before then, we have trained a statistical model to predict each region's share of national hospital deaths.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Insee	Last analysed to November 10th
covid_deaths	Santé Publique France / ECDC
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Germany

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Destatis	Last analysed to October 20th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2016-19

Indonesia

The only available data about deaths from all causes is a monthly tally of burials in Jakarta, which comes from the city's Department of Parks and Cemeteries.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Provinsi DKI Jakarta	Last analysed to May 31st
covid_deaths	Provinsi DKI Jakarta
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2018-19

Italy

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	ISTAT	Last analysed to August 25th
covid_deaths	Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Mexico

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Secretaría de Salud	Last analysed to September 26th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly average, based on 2018-19

Netherlands

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek	Last analysed to November 20th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Norway

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Statistisk Sentralbyra	Last analysed to November 10th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Peru

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Ministerio de Salud	Last analysed to October 31st
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2017-19

Portugal

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Ministerio da Saúde	Last analysed to November 24th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Weekly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Russia

The Moscow Times has collected monthly data for total_deaths in Russia from Rosstat, Russia's national statistical bureau. We have modelled our own baseline for expected_deaths, which predicts fewer deaths in 2020 than a simple five-year average does. This is because the number of deaths that Russia recorded each year fell steadily from 2015-19.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Rosstat / The Moscow Times	Last analysed to September 30th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

South Africa

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	South African Medical Research Council	Last analysed to November 17th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	South African Medical Research Council	Weekly modelled baseline, trained by SAMRC

Spain

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Instituto de Salud Carlos III	Last analysed to November 17th
covid_deaths	Ministerio de Sanidad / Datadista
expected_deaths	Instituto de Salud Carlos III	Daily modelled baseline, trained by MoMo

Sweden

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Statistiska Centralbyran	Last analysed to November 10th
covid_deaths	Folkhalsomyndigheten	Retrospectively adjusted, to use day that death occurred
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Switzerland

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	Federal Statistical Office	Last analysed to November 15th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Turkey

The only available data about total_deaths is a daily tally of burials in Istanbul, which comes from the city's Metropolitan Municipality (İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi). We are grateful to Oğuz Işık for collecting this data by hand and sending it to us.

The Turkish government has not released a regional breakdown of covid-19 data since April 1st, at which point the city had roughly 40% of the nation’s official deaths and 55% of confirmed cases. For our tracker, we have assumed that Istanbul has had 50% of Turkey's official covid_deaths, which we are importing from the ECDC.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi	Last analysed to November 17th
covid_deaths	ECDC / Our World In Data
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2017-19

United States

The CDC is publishing weekly data about total_deaths in each state and New York City, which it is also correcting for under-reporting in recent weeks. We are importing data on covid_deaths from USA Facts, which are collated from the CDC. For New York City, we are using covid_deaths from the city's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which includes confirmed and probable fatalities.

Variable	Source	Notes
total_deaths	CDC	Last analysed to November 7th
covid_deaths	CDC / USA Facts / NYC Health	NYC toll includes "probable" deaths from covid-19
expected_deaths	The Economist	Monthly modelled baseline, trained on 2015-19

Licence

This software is published by The Economist under the MIT licence. The data generated by The Economist are available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The data and files that we have generated from official sources are freely available for public use, as long as The Economist is cited as a source.

Authors

This data has been collected, cleaned and analysed by James Tozer and Martín González. We are grateful to Oğuz Işık for providing data from Istanbul; to René van der Veer for providing code for the Netherlands; to Laurianne Despeghel and Mario Romero Zavalato for providing data from Mexico City; to Thais Carrança, Helio Gurovitz and Diogo Melo for providing data from Brazilian cities; and to Vital Strategies for providing data from the whole of Brazil.

If you use the data, or have any suggestions, please email [email protected].