The Swedish Transport Administration has developed the Scenario Tool, a model to support analyses of how different types of transport cliamte policy interventions can affect the Swedish transport system on an aggregated level.
EMA_transport_climate_policy_SE supports performing MORDMor other analyses based on Exploratory Modeling and Analysis using the Scenario Tool.
The repository has been developed within the research project MUST: Managing deep Uncertainty in planning for Sustainable Transport performed by KTH ITRL and VTI. The primary purpose of EMA_transport_climate_policy_SE is to support a study within the project and not for external use. However, the repo is public to enable reproduction of an upcoming paper and to serve as inspiration for other projects or applications.
The code is written in Python in a "notebook-like" style.
Please note that the repository and research study is WORK IN PROGRESS!
The repository includes a number of scripts to support MORDM and other EMA-related analyses using the Scenario Tool. The scripts use to perform the MORDM study, which is the core of the research project, have the prefix MORDM.
Running the MORDM scripts to recreate the MORDM study involves the below steps. These scripts can also be used to redo the study with alternative problem formulations (e.g. optimization problem formulation in MORDM_MOEA.py, exposing the candidate policies to other uncertainties in MORDM_run_robustness_analysis, or using other robustness metrics or vulnerability analysis approaches in MORDM_analyze_robustness.py). To run these scripts, the user needs to ensure that the file paths for the input files (output from previous step(s)) are correct in each script.
MORDM_MOEA.py --> (MORDM_convergence_metrics.py and MORDM_animation.py) --> MORDM_filter_candidate_policies.py --> MORDM_run_robustness_analysis.py --> MORDM_analyze_robustness.py
TODO: add a flowchart of scripts and output/input files for each step in MORDM
As a complement, a global sensitivity analysis using SOBOL-sampling can be performed on either the external uncertainties (for some reference policy) or the policy levers (for some reference scenario), or levers and uncertainties in combation (which requires some modification to the code). This sensitivity analysis is not integral to the typical MORDM framework, but can be used to better understand what parameters have significant effect on the outcomes of interest.
MORDM_run_sobol.py --> MORDM_sobol_analysis.py
The folder non_MORDM_scripts contains other scripts have been used for various tests and supporting analyses, but are not part of the final study or the MORDM framework. These are not maintained and might not be runnable or work as intended.
The following folders are ignored in the github repo but need to be added for the MORDM scripts to work "out of the box". Note that currently, archives to visualize using MORDM_animation.py need to be manually added to archives_animation.
├── repository top folder/
│ ├── archives/
│ ├── archives_animation/
│ ├── figs/
│ └── output_data/
│ ├── candidate_policies/
│ ├── moea_results/
│ ├── robustness_analysis_results/
│ └── sobol_results/
The repository is not actively maintained to support external use. No additional documentation, relase notes, issue tracking or support is currently available and is not planned. The repository is not open for external contribution.
There is active work ongoing with the repo to finalize the research study.
The repository uses a modified version of the Scenario Tool which has been developed within the MUST project. The Swedish Transport Administration, which is the original creator and owner of "Scenario Tool v1.0", has not participated in, approved, or in any other way been involved in the development of these changes and additions. Consequently, the Swedish Transport Administration does not assume any responsibility for the function, content, or any results that arise from the use of this modified version of the tool. Users of this version of the Scenario Tool should be aware that all changes and additions are exclusive to the MUST project and may differ from the Swedish Transport Administration's official version and recommendations.