Egg Prices, Bird Flu, and Cal-Main Profits

This project aims to explore the relation between the bird flu and Egg Price fluctuations. The main research aims are the following:

1. What is the relationship between the increase of bird flu outbreaks and increases in Grade A egg prices? Is there a time lag?
2. How does the stock price of Cal-Main Foods (biggest egg company in USA) respond to bird flu outbreak?
3. What areas are at risk of human infection? UPDATE: New question that uses infections in wild birds + commercial flocks to determine high risk areas (wild bird data is new!)
4. How is the largest pasture-raised egg company, Vital Farms, affected by egg prices? How about bird flu (via chicken deaths?) UPDATE: NEW QUESTION
5. How is the largest processor of value-added eggs, Michael Foods (subsidiary of Post Holdings), affected by egg prices? How about bird flu? UPDATE: NEW QUESTION

Adjustments:

1. Updated Q3 to include wild birds instead of human infections. May still add human infections, but by that point it would be a lagging indicator
2. Added Q4. This was important to see the impact on non-caged egg producers and to see how a different segment of the egg market has responded to the supply shock
3. Added Q5. Similar to Q4 in how it will add additional insight into the

Dropped questions:

1. What is the correlation between bird flu incidence and average egg prices? UPDATE: Need to drop; cannot find the data for local egg prices
2. How do consumer respond to egg price increases? What is the demand elasticity for eggs? (Need to find consumption data) - UPDATE: Need to drop this, not able to find the consumer data at a granular enough level

Current insights:

• There is a positive correlation between Cal-Maine's stock prices and egg prices oras well as bird flu deaths
• There is about a 2-3 month time lag between the outbreaks and the increase in egg prices
• The largest losses of chickens have ocurred in California, Oregon, and Utah. These states are at a highe risk of cross infection of bird flu

Issues [] No data for local egg prices [] No data for local [] resampling for stock data; need to revisit [] remove extra line on time series graph for Cal-Maine price [] how to use beautiful soup for API

Data [] Organize data into a folder? (Temporary until APIs ready, may not be worth it) [] set up API for Bird Flu data (clickable link) [] set up API for Cal-Main data (clickable link) [] set up API for POST data [] set up API for [] set up API for egg prices from BLS (clickable link) [] set up API for National Agricultural Statistics Service (REST API) Keep? Integrate? [] find additional dataset for consumption that can be used to calculate demand elasticity over time at the national level [x] compile data onto two dataframes: one for time-series/national data and the other for geographical data [x] add geospatial data for visualizations [x] clean Cal-Main food price data

Code Organization (what else can be refactored?)

[x] seperate main for app [x] put streamlit functions into viz.py [x] put data cleaning functions into data_prep.py [x] testing code - check for date column, lng, lat - see if numbers are numerical - check for invalid data values in cols [x] test cases [] move streamlit functions to seperate module [] create new module for adding geospatial data [] update test_helper_viz.py with examples? [] fix references in prep_bird_data [] Write test cases for visualizations and prep_wild_bird_data() [] refactor prep_stock_data to work with validation and csv file inputs (or wait until database?)

Visualizations

[] Add st.metric [] current stock prices [] current egg prices [] stock prices compared to two months after bird flu (incorporating lag) for % increase [] same for eggs [x] Create time series data plotting egg prices, stock price [x] resample time series to monthly [x] add second y axis for stock prices [x] fix x axis for the time series plot [x] Create US map with bird flu (modify to streamlit plot?) [] Add slider that allow for different time periods on both graphs [] add additional stock data to X axis [] add additional layers to map data [x] created separate map for now, may try merging into one df later [] fix the latest date detected column to take the column as datetime and return the latest date - currently it does a string comparison [] What other elements to add to map?

Other Considerations [] Which states are key egg producing states [] Could incorporate the Producer Price Index or Consumer Price Index, specifically for baked goods [] Add S&P 500 for comparison on time series graph? [] Box plot for different egg-based product prices? [X] Consider whether to include other egg companies or local producers (how to source/aggregate data?) [] Correlation between different stocks? [] Incorporate human infection or cow infection data? [] How to use the National Agricultural Statistics Service (REST API) Data?