howard risk done

什么是风险.md

@@ -98,21 +98,55 @@
 
 上面是一个简化了的分析，实际上站在运营人员、企业老板、投资人的角度。即便活动没有长期效应，不同的人也会因为投入和报酬的方式不同而得出不同的结论。读者可以自己思考一下为什么。
 
-### 风险控制
+### 风险控制是什么
 
-那么接下来就引出了一个问题，我们做风控的到底控的是什么呢？
+>In order to achieve superior results, an investor must be able – with some regularity – to find asymmetries: instances when the upside potential exceeds the downside risk. That’s what successful investing is all about.
+>
+>为了能获得过人的回报，投资者必须能常态的找到不对称：向上潜力超过向下的风险。成功的投资不外乎这样。
+
+和投资行业一样，成功的互联网企业想要盈利也应找到“向上潜力超过向下的风险”的情况。那么具体到风控是做什么呢？
+
+>Effective risk management requires deep insight and a deft touch. It has to be based on a superior understanding of the probability distributions that will govern future events. Those who would achieve it have to have a good sense for what the crucial moving parts are, what will influence them, what outcomes are possible, and how likely each one is.
+>
+>高效的风险控制需要深入的洞见和灵敏的感知。这构建在对“未来是一个概率分布”这个观点出众的理解。成为风控专家的人必须能理解哪些是关键组件，知道什么会影响它们，有哪些可能结果，每个结果的概率是多少。
+
+例如很多公司都有建立用户钱包的冲动，这样可以建立资金池，从而进一步获利。
+
+风控专家应该在用户钱包业务上线前了解自己公司的各个业务流程，例如用户体系、充值、消费、退款。应该了解这些流程对钱包的影响，例如撞库、盗绑银行卡、信用卡套现、恶意退单等行为和钱包的关系。最后要清楚这些会导致用户账户损失、支付不合规等结果。当然还应结合主观经验和客观分析得出这些结果的概率。
+
+风控专家也应该在这个业务上线后持续的运营，随着业务的发展进行新的判断。
+
+### 风险控制是谁的责任？
+
+当你找一家企业的员工，无论基层还是老板，无论是金融还是零售，问他们“风险控制在你们的流程中重要吗？”。你通常都会得到Yes的答复。但是在实际项目中，特别是早期，风控都被人抛之脑后。
 
 >The task of managing risk shouldn’t be left to designated risk managers.
+>
+>风险管理的工作不应被丢弃给专职的风险经理们。
 
->While risk should be dealt with constantly, investors are often tempted to do so only sporadically. Since risk only turns into loss when bad things happen, this can cause investors to apply risk control only when the future seems ominous. At other times they may opt to pile on risk in the expectation that good things lie ahead. But since we can’t predict the future, we never really know when risk control will be needed. Risk control is unnecessary in times when losses don’t occur, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to have it. The best analogy is to fire insurance: do you consider it a mistake to have paid the premium in a year in which your house didn’t burn
+做风控的人可能都有一个感觉：向Passport、支付等部门推广风控是一件相对容易的事，但是向订单、售前等部门推广时就比较难。这主要是各个部门的职责不同导致风险不同，且在事后责任方有区别。
 
->Effective risk management requires deep insight and a deft touch. It has to be based on a superior understanding of the probability distributions that will govern future events. Those who would achieve it have to have a good sense for what the crucial moving parts are, what will influence them, what outcomes are possible, and how likely each one is.
+Passport部门有一个天生的职责就是保护用户密码，没做到这一点的passport系统是不完整的，所以passport部门会重视这个问题。
 
->Thus the key prerequisites for risk control also include humility, lack of hubris, and knowing what you don’t know. No one ever got into trouble for confessing a lack of prescience, being highly risk- conscious, and even investing scared. Risk control may restrain results during a rebound from crisis conditions or extreme under-valuations, when those who take the most risk generally make the most money. But it will also extend an investment career and increase the likelihood of long-term success. That’s why Oaktree was built on the belief that risk control is “the most important thing.”
+订单团队比较有趣，每家公司不同。我之前在和某公司订单部门初次接触时，对方总是支支吾吾，就是不允许我们在用户下单时对可疑用户进行拦截。最后订单部门的老板说出了实话：(这家公司)订单部门最重要的KPI是订单量，无论是季度、全年还是大促时，最看重的是下单量。如果我们在下单时拦截，担心会影响到这个KPI的完成。最后我们在下单后和物流部门中间找到了20分钟，插入了一段近实时审单逻辑，对于恶意订单在这个阶段进行砍单。
 
->In order to achieve superior results, an investor must be able – with some regularity – to find asymmetries: instances when the upside potential exceeds the downside risk. That’s what successful investing is all about.
+再来看售前部门，国内某现金贷公司的风控部门很难做，不停抱怨低质贷款申请太多，违约率降不下来。朋友抱怨道：售前部门的KPI是成单量、每日电话呼出次数等鼓励售前多拉单的KPI，没有一个是关于违约的。最后违约了由风控部门背锅，售前部门无需背责任，自然售前部门就可以忽视风险，尽量找成单难度低的用户，找了一堆自控力薄弱的大学生（国家禁止前）和生活不稳定人群。
+
+由此可以看出：
+1. 成为风控专家的人必须能理解哪些是关键组件，知道什么会影响它们，有哪些可能结果，每个结果的概率是多少。并能在各个组件中找到合理的介入点。
+2. 在整个公司推广风险控制，除了通过培训、宣传提高大家风险意识这种途径外，也离不开自顶向下合理的目标体系、责任体系的支持。
+
+## 风控是必要的吗
+
+>While risk should be dealt with constantly, investors are often tempted to do so only sporadically. Since risk only turns into loss when bad things happen, this can cause investors to apply risk control only when the future seems ominous. At other times they may opt to pile on risk in the expectation that good things lie ahead. But since we can’t predict the future, we never really know when risk control will be needed. Risk control is unnecessary in times when losses don’t occur, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to have it. The best analogy is to fire insurance: do you consider it a mistake to have paid the premium in a year in which your house didn’t burn
+>
+>虽然对抗风险是一个持续的过程，但投资者通常是三天打鱼两天晒网。因为风险只在坏事发生时才会显现出真正的损失，这会导致投资者只在未来悲观时才想起风控。其他时候投资者会相信前景一片光明并忽视风险。但是因为我们不能预测未来，我们永远不知道何时需要风控。风控在损失未发生时是不必要的，但这不意味着进行风险控制是错的。最好的类比是火灾险：即便你的房子没着火，你会认为每年支付火灾险保费是一个错误吗？
+
+>Risk control may restrain results during a rebound from crisis conditions or extreme under-valuations, when those who take the most risk generally make the most money. But it will also extend an investment career and increase the likelihood of long-term success. That’s why Oaktree was built on the belief that risk control is “the most important thing.”
+>
+>也许风控会制约你在危机或极度低估期回弹时的收益，眼看那些承受最大风险的公司这时赚了很多钱。但是风控会延长投资视野并且增长长期成功的可能性。这就是为什么橡树资本是建立在风控是“最重要的事”这个信念之上。
 
-（未完待续）
+这两句十分朴实，却意义深刻。读者不妨自行参透，并应用到非经融领域中。
 
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