Edit VAT school Post (#2134)

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src/posts/articles/school-vat.md

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 ## Key findings
 
-- We estimate a [£1.3 billion](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) revenue increase from Labour's proposal to raise the VAT rate on private schools to 20%.
-- Our analysis projects that Labour's proposal to remove tax exemptions from private schools would raise a total of £6.1 billion in tax revenue over the five-year period from FY2025 to FY2029.
-- We estimate that the Gini index of income inequality would decrease slightly by 0.04% in FY2025.
-- We also estimate that Labour's plan would lower net income for 2.8% of people.
+- We estimate a [£1.5 billion](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) revenue increase from Labour's proposal to raise the VAT rate on private schools to 20%.
+- Our analysis projects that Labour's proposal to remove tax exemptions from private schools would raise a total of £7.7 billion in tax revenue over the five-year period from FY2025 to FY2029.
+- We estimate that the Gini index of income inequality would decrease slightly by 0.01% in FY2025.
+- We also estimate that Labour's plan would lower net income for 3.3% of people.
 
 ## Introduction
 
@@ -13,17 +13,17 @@ Labour has proposed a policy change aimed at reducing educational inequality and
 
 ### Budgetary impact
 
-PolicyEngine's static analysis[^1] of Labour's plan to remove tax exemptions from private schools estimates a budgetary impact of £1.3 billion. This aligns with the Institute for Fiscal Studies [(IFS)](https://ifs.org.uk/news/removing-tax-exemptions-private-schools-likely-have-little-effect-numbers-private-sector), which projects a £1.3-1.5 billion net gain to public finances per year.
+PolicyEngine's static analysis[^1] of Labour's plan to remove tax exemptions from private schools estimates a budgetary impact of £1.5 billion. This aligns with the Institute for Fiscal Studies [(IFS)](https://ifs.org.uk/news/removing-tax-exemptions-private-schools-likely-have-little-effect-numbers-private-sector), which projects a £1.3-1.5 billion net gain to public finances per year.
 
 The chart presents PolicyEngine's estimates of the effects of Labour's proposed VAT policy on private schools over the next five years. It shows projections for both the raised tax revenue and the percentage of people experiencing lower net income from FY2025 to FY2029.
 
 | Year | Budgetary impact (£ billion)                                                                                                    | People affected (%) |
 | :--- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | :------------------ |
-| 2025 | [1.3](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) | 2.8                 |
-| 2026 | [1.0](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2026&baseline=1) | 2.7                 |
-| 2027 | [1.2](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2027&baseline=1) | 3.1                 |
-| 2028 | [1.3](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2028&baseline=1) | 2.5                 |
-| 2029 | [1.3](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2029&baseline=1) | 2.5                 |
+| 2025 | [1.5](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) | 3.3                 |
+| 2026 | [1.5](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2026&baseline=1) | 3.3                 |
+| 2027 | [1.5](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2027&baseline=1) | 3.3                 |
+| 2028 | [1.6](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2028&baseline=1) | 3.4                 |
+| 2029 | [1.6](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=60649&region=uk&timePeriod=2029&baseline=1) | 3.4                 |
 
 ### Distributional impact
 
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ Our analysis of Labour's proposal to remove tax exemptions from private schools
 - Deciles 7-8: Upper-middle income groups are slightly affected, experiencing small but noticeable reductions in their net income.
 - Deciles 9-10: The highest income households bear the brunt of the policy's impact, with the most significant reductions in net income, as they are the primary users of private schools.
 
-![](/images/posts/school_vat/gini-plot.png)
+![](/images/posts/school_vat/income.png)
 
 ### Winners and losers
 
@@ -44,12 +44,12 @@ Our analysis of Labour's plan reveals a targeted impact on household incomes acr
 
 ### Inequality impact
 
-Labour's proposal to remove tax exemptions from private schools is projected to have a modest impact on income inequality from FY2025. The Gini index, a common measure of income inequality, is projected to decrease by 0.04%. This suggests a slight overall reduction in income disparity across the population. The policy also appears to have a targeted impact on high-income groups, with the income share of the top 10% decreasing by 0.01%. The income share of the top 1% is also expected to decrease slightly by the same amount.
+Labour's proposal to remove tax exemptions from private schools is projected to have a modest impact on income inequality from FY2025. The Gini index, a common measure of income inequality, is projected to decrease by 0.01%. This suggests a slight overall reduction in income disparity across the population. The policy also appears to have a targeted impact on high-income groups, with the income share of the top 10% decreasing by 0.01%. The income share of the top 1% is also expected to decrease slightly by the same amount.
 
-![](/images/posts/school_vat/income.png)
+![](/images/posts/school_vat/gini-plot.png)
 
 ## Conclusion
 
-We estimate that Labour’s plan would raise £1.3 billion in revenue in FY2025, primarily affecting higher-income households, with 2.8% of the population experiencing a decrease in net income. It also would cause a modest reduction in income inequality, decreasing the Gini index by 0.04%.
+We estimate that Labour's plan would raise £1.5 billion in revenue in FY2025, primarily affecting higher-income households, with 3.3% of the population experiencing a decrease in net income. It also would cause a modest reduction in income inequality, decreasing the Gini index by 0.01%.
 
 [^1]: Our analysis does not account for potential long-term changes in consumer preferences that may result from applying different VAT rates. The analysis assumes static behavioural responses and does not model potential shifts in educational choices or school operations that might occur over time.

src/posts/posts.json

@@ -829,7 +829,7 @@
   },
   {
     "title": "Labour's reforms to VAT tax on private schools",
-    "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's private school tax plan would raise £6.1 billion over five years, mainly affecting wealthier households.",
+    "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's private school tax plan would raise £7.7 billion over five years, mainly affecting wealthier households.",
     "date": "2024-10-17 01:00:00",
     "tags": ["uk", "tax", "policy", "vat"],
     "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"],