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vahid-ahmadi committed Nov 6, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -6,17 +6,17 @@ When accounting for behavioural responses, we project that these changes will ra

We project the CGT reforms will raise £6.4 billion from 2025 to 2029\.

| Fiscal Year | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | Total |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| Revenue (£bn) | 0.0 | [1.0](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) | [1.2](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2026&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2027&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2028&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2029&baseline=1) | 6.4 |
| Fiscal Year | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | Total |
| :------------ | :------ | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :---- |
| Revenue (£bn) | 0.0 | [1.0](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) | [1.2](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2026&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2027&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2028&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2029&baseline=1) | 6.4 |

These estimates are 29% less than HMT and 26% less than the OBR. These variations may stem from different assumptions about behavioural responses. In our model, we assume individuals will adjust their capital gains realisations with an elasticity of \-0.7 with respect to the marginal tax rate; neither HMT nor OBR specify their assumptions on this front.

| Source | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | Total |
| ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- |
| PolicyEngine | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.4 |
| HM Treasury | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 9.0 |
| OBR | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 8.6 |
| Source | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | Total |
| ------------ | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ----- |
| PolicyEngine | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.4 |
| HM Treasury | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 9.0 |
| OBR | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 8.6 |

Assuming [no behavioural change](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69732&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1), we project the change to generate £22.2 billion from 2025 to 2029\. While the OBR also provides estimates it describes as static, those account for changes in realisation behaviour, making them incomparable to our static results.

Expand All @@ -30,6 +30,6 @@ Our [distributional analysis](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOut

Read more of PolicyEngine’s Autumn Budget 2024 coverage:

- [Employer National Insurance reforms](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-employer-ni)
- [Private school VAT changes](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/vat-school-comparison)
- [Fuel Duty freeze](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-fuel-duty)
- [Employer National Insurance reforms](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-employer-ni)
- [Private school VAT changes](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/vat-school-comparison)
- [Fuel Duty freeze](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-fuel-duty)

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