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---
templateKey: model
slug: mather-2022-groundwater
title: Constraining the response of continental-scale groundwater flow to climate
change
date: '2024-05-20T02:00:54.000Z'
featuredpost:
for_codes:
- 370401
status:
doi: ''
url: ''
creditText: ''
software:
- name: 'Underworld2: Python Geodynamics Modelling for Desktop, HPC and Cloud'
doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7455999
url_source: https://github.com/underworldcode/underworld2
licence:
licence_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
licence_image: ../../../img/licence/by.png
description: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
licence_file: license.txt
submitter:
name: Dan
family_name: Sandiford
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2207-6837
creators:
- name: Ben
family_name: Mather
ORCID: 0000-0003-3566-1557
- name: Dietmar
family_name: Müller
ORCID: 0000-0002-3334-5764
- name: Craig
family_name: O'Neill
ORCID: 0000-0002-6034-1881
- name: Adam
family_name: Beall
ORCID: 0000-0002-7182-1864
- name: R.Willem
family_name: Vervoort
ORCID: 0000-0002-6557-0237
- name: Louis-Noel
family_name: Moresi
ORCID: 0000-0003-3685-174X
associated_publication:
authors:
- '@type': Person
givenName: Ben
familyName: Mather
- '@type': Person
givenName: R. Dietmar
familyName: Müller
- '@type': Person
givenName: Craig
familyName: O’Neill
- '@type': Person
givenName: Adam
familyName: Beall
- '@type': Person
givenName: R. Willem
familyName: Vervoort
- '@type': Person
givenName: Louis
familyName: Moresi
title: Constraining the response of continental-scale groundwater flow to climate
change
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08384-w
url: ''
journal: Scientific Reports
publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
date: 2022-3-16
compute_info:
name: National Computational Infrastructure
organisation: ''
url: https://ror.org/04yx6dh41
doi: https://ror.org/04yx6dh41
research_tags:
- groundwater
- thermal-hydraulic
- Bayesian
- water-management
- Python
- C
- finite element
- heat equation
- advection-diffusion
compute_tags:
- Python
- C
- finite element
- heat equation
- advection-diffusion
funder:
- name: NSW Department of Industry
doi: ''
- name: AuScope
doi: https://ror.org/04s1m4564
abstract: Numerical models of groundwater flow play a critical role for water management
scenarios under climate extremes. Large-scale models play a key role in determining
long range flow pathways from continental interiors to the oceans, yet struggle
to simulate the local flow patterns offered by small-scale models. We have developed
a highly scalable numerical framework to model continental groundwater flow which
capture the intricate flow pathways between deep aquifers and the near-surface.
The coupled thermal-hydraulic basin structure is inferred from hydraulic head measurements,
recharge estimates from geochemical proxies, and borehole temperature data using
a Bayesian framework. We use it to model the deep groundwater flow beneath the Sydney–Gunnedah–Bowen
Basin, part of Australia’s largest aquifer system. Coastal aquifers have flow rates
of up to 0.3 m/day, and a corresponding groundwater residence time of just 2,000
years. In contrast, our model predicts slow flow rates of 0.005 m/day for inland
aquifers, resulting in a groundwater residence time of 400,000 years. Perturbing
the model to account for a drop in borehole water levels since 2000, we find that
lengthened inland flow pathways depart significantly from pre-2000 streamlines as
groundwater is drawn further from recharge zones in a drying climate. Our results
illustrate that progressively increasing water extraction from inland aquifers may
permanently alter long-range flow pathways. Our open-source modelling approach can
be extended to any basin and may help inform policies on the sustainable management
of groundwater.
description: This model was developed in order to study groundwater flow on a continental
scale, focusing on the Sydney–Gunnedah–Bowen Basin in Australia. Using data such
as hydraulic head measurements and borehole temperatures, it predicts how water
moves through deep aquifers to the surface. Coastal aquifers show fast water flow,
while inland aquifers have much slower flow. The study shows that increased water
extraction from inland areas could permanently change water flow patterns. This
open-source model can be used for other regions and aims to support sustainable
groundwater management policies
images:
landing_image:
src: ''
caption: ''
graphic_abstract:
src: ./graphics/fig1.png
caption: "Coupled heat-groundwater flow model of the Sydney–Gunnedah–Bowen Basin
based on the MAP estimate of material properties and boundary conditions. (A)
Groundwater velocity field with coal seams outlined in grey overlain with temperature
gradients measured in boreholes. This visualisation of the velocity field obtained
from our model was rendered in 3D using Paraview 5.9 (https://www.paraview.org/).
(B) temperature field overlain with heat flux vectors. The 2D slice was generated
from our models using Matplotlib 3.4 (https://matplotlib.org/).\n"
model_setup:
src: ./graphics/figure_2.png
caption: 3D stratigraphy of the Sydney–Gunnedah–Bowen Basin. The vertical spacing
of layers has been exaggerated for visual clarity. The model of the basin was
rendered in 3D using Underworld.
animation:
src: ./graphics/
caption: ''
model_setup_info:
url: ''
summary: In this paper, we apply our numerical framework to the Sydney–Gunnedah–Bowen
(SGB) Basin in eastern Australia. The SGB Basin covers about 1.5 million square
kilometers, and we model it in high-resolution 3D, using over 10 million cells
(or 6 x 6 x 0.6 km, in the x, y, z directions, respectively) to detail flow patterns
down to 12 km beneath the crust. By adjusting the model to match real-world data,
it provides accurate insights into water and heat movement through deep aquifers
in large areas. Temperature advection due to groundwater flow is described by
the advection-diffusion equation. Darcy flux is calculated from the groundwater
flow equation. Groundwater recharge and discharge are driven by changes in hydraulic
head, which is set to the height of the water table at the top boundary surface.
The thermal boundary conditions include a constant temperature set to the top
boundary, which corresponds to the annual mean surface temperature. The side
walls are assigned zero flux, and the bottom temperature boundary is an unknown
variable that we invert from borehole temperature data within our Bayesian optimization
scheme.
model_files:
url: ''
notes: In the Scripts folder, HL05 was used to run the optimisation problem and
HL06 was used to take the maximum a posteriori model and run it at high resolution.
file_tree: ''
existing_identifier: https://github.com/brmather/Sydney_Basin/tree/master
nci_file_path:
https://dapds00.nci.org.au/thredds/catalog/nm08/MATE/mather-2022-groundwater/catalog.html
include: true
dataset:
url: ''
notes: "model_output_data contains the following file types:\r\n\r\n.h5 - Underworld2
data files\r\n.xdmf- Underworld2 xdmf header files\r\n.csv - Various data in csv
format\r\n.npz - data on numpy binary format\r\n.png - image files\r\n.pvsm -
Paraview state files\r\n.txt - data in .txt format"
existing_identifier: ''
nci_file_path:
https://dapds00.nci.org.au/thredds/catalog/nm08/MATE/mather-2022-groundwater/catalog.html
include: true
metadataFile: ro-crate-metadata.json
---

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