Investigate and fix noise issues

[michaelosthege]

• 🐛 Make noise guesses more robust by using standard deviations of the first and last 15 % of the intensity time series.
• 🐛 Fix posterior predictive sampling and plot such that the actual prediction is shown instead of posterior draws for y.
• 💡 Add investigative notebook inspecting the effect of likelihood standard deviation (noise) on uncertainty estimates of peak area.

[review-notebook-app]

Check out this pull request on 

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