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results/default_stats.txt

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ Mean of smooth T, CO2 NMSEs (k = 5 ): 0.000846
 Mean of smooth T, CO2 MSEs (k = 10 ): 2.3
 Mean of smooth T, CO2 NMSEs (k = 10 ): 0.000836
 
+
 CO2 MSE:        4.58
 T MSE:          0.0358
 T MSE w/ unc:   0.0118

scripts/graph_comparison_plots.R

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@
 # Importing libraries
 library(hector)
 library(ggplot2)
+theme_set(theme_bw(base_size = 20))
 
 # Setting up file paths
 COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
@@ -22,7 +23,7 @@ TEMP_PATH <-
 INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
 PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS(), AERO_SCALE())
 
-OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "nmae_comparison_plots.jpeg")
+OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "all_run_comparison_plots.jpeg")
 
 
 source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
@@ -38,84 +39,170 @@ temp_data <- filter(temp_data, year <= 2014)
 obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data)
 
 ### Running Hector ###
+# Default (and initial smoothing) Results [Exp. 1-4]
 default_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, 
                            params = NULL,
                            vals = NULL,
                            yrs = 1750:2014, 
                            vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-default_data$scenario <- "Hector - Default Fit"
+default_data$scenario <- "Hector - Default"
 
-
-nmse_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+# NMSE 3-Parameter Results [Exp.5-9]
+exp5_9A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                         params = PARAMS,
                         vals = c(0.268, 2.64, 2.2, 3, 1),
                         yrs = 1750:2014,
                         vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-nmse_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc Fit"
+exp5_9A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE"
 
-nmse_bb_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+exp5B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                           params = PARAMS,
+                           vals = c(0, 1.5, 2.6, 3, 1),
+                           yrs = 1750:2014,
+                           vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp5B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE \nBig Box"
+
+exp6B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                    params = PARAMS,
+                    vals = c(0, 1.58, 2.6, 3, 1),
+                    yrs = 1750:2014,
+                    vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp6B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE, Smoothing (k = 3) \nBig Box"
+
+exp8B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                    params = PARAMS,
+                    vals = c(0, 1.95, 2.6, 3, 1),
+                    yrs = 1750:2014,
+                    vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp8B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE, Smoothing (k = 10) \nBig Box"
+
+exp9B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                         params = PARAMS,
                         vals = c(0.028, 1.76, 2.6, 3, 1),
                         yrs = 1750:2014,
                         vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-nmse_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Big Box Fit"
+exp9B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box"
+
 
-ecs_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+# Optimizing S, Alpha [Exp. 10-11]
+exp10A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                                   params = PARAMS,
                                   vals = c(0.268, 1.95, 2.6, 3.97, 1),
                                   yrs = 1750:2014,
                                   vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-ecs_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Fit w/ S"
+exp10A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nTuning S"
 
-ecs_bb_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+exp10B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                        params = PARAMS,
                        vals = c(0.006, 1, 2.6, 3.16, 1),
                        yrs = 1750:2014,
                        vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-ecs_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Big Box Fit w/ S"
+exp10B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box, Tuning S"
 
-alpha_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+exp11A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                        params = PARAMS,
                        vals = c(0.57, 1.76, 2.38, 2.96, 0.492),
                        yrs = 1750:2014,
                        vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-alpha_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Fit w/ S, Alpha"
+exp11A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nTuning S, Alpha"
 
-alpha_bb_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+exp11B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                             params = PARAMS,
                             vals = c(0.502, 0.99, 2, 2.88, 0.5),
                             yrs = 1750:2014,
                             vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-alpha_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Big Box Fit w/ S, Alpha"
+exp11B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box, Tuning S, Alpha"
 
-alpha_ohc_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+# Optimizing for OHC & Further Refinements [Exp. 12-16]
+exp12 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                          params = PARAMS,
                          vals = c(0.65, 1.76, 1.04, 2.33, 0.438),
                          yrs = 1750:2014,
                          vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-alpha_ohc_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc (incl. OHC), Fit w/ S, Alpha"
-
-nmae_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+exp12$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha"
+
+exp13 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                    params = PARAMS,
+                    vals = c(0.53, 2.31, 1.04, 2.83, 1.405),
+                    yrs = 1750:2014,
+                    vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp13$scenario <- "Hector - MVSSE, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha"
+
+exp14A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                    params = PARAMS,
+                    vals = c(0.732, 1.76, 1.04, 3, 0.613),
+                    yrs = 1750:2014,
+                    vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp14A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning Alpha"
+
+exp14B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                     params = PARAMS,
+                     vals = c(0.904, 0.88, 0.806, 3, 0.46),
+                     yrs = 1750:2014,
+                     vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp14B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nBig Box, Tuning Alpha"
+
+exp15 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                     params = PARAMS,
+                     vals = c(0.57, 2.49, 1.06, 3.14, 1.08),
+                     yrs = 1750:2014,
+                     vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+exp15$scenario <- "Hector - MAE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha"
+
+exp16 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                              params = PARAMS,
                              vals = c(0.59, 1.76, 1.04, 2.17, 0.411),
                              yrs = 1750:2014,
                              vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
-nmae_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMAE w/ unc (incl. OHC), Fit w/ S, Alpha"
-
-#hector_data <- rbind(default_data, nmse_data, nmse_bb_data, ecs_data, ecs_bb_data, alpha_data, alpha_bb_data)
-hector_data <- rbind(default_data, alpha_ohc_data, nmae_data)
+exp16$scenario <- "Hector - NMAE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha"
+
+# Coloring all unimportant runs grey
+grey_data <- rbind(exp5_9A, exp5B, exp6B, exp8B, exp9B,  # NMSEs
+                     exp10A, exp10B,                       # Add S
+                     exp11B,                               # Add alpha
+                     exp12,                                # Add OHC, Mat Diff
+                     exp13,                                # Try MVSSE
+                     exp14A, exp14B,                       # Try remove S
+                     exp15)                                # Try MAE
+grey_data$exp <- "Hector - Other Experiments"
+
+# Coloring important runs
+key_data <- rbind(default_data, exp11A, exp16)             # Best Runs
+key_data$exp <- key_data$scenario
+
+#Combining all Hector data
+hector_data <- rbind(grey_data, key_data)
 hector_data$lower <- hector_data$value
 hector_data$upper <- hector_data$value
 
+# Filtering data to look nice for graph
+hector_data <- filter(hector_data, variable == CONCENTRATIONS_CO2() | 
+                        (year >= 1850 & variable == GMST()))
+
+obs_data$exp <- "Historical"
 comb_data <- rbind(obs_data, hector_data)
 
-ggplot(data = comb_data, aes(x = year, y = value, color = scenario)) + 
+ggplot(data = comb_data, aes(x = year, y = value, color = exp)) + 
+  # Plotting uncertainty in Temperature
   geom_ribbon(data = 
                filter(comb_data, scenario == "historical" & variable == GMST()),
               aes(ymin = lower, ymax = upper),
-              fill = 'orchid1',
-              color = NA) +
-  geom_line() +
+              fill = 'hotpink2',
+              color = NA,
+              alpha = 0.5) +
+  # Plotting background runs
+  geom_line(data = filter(comb_data, exp == "Hector - Other Experiments" |
+                            (scenario == "historical" & year >= 1850)),
+            aes(group = scenario)) +
+  # Plotting foreground runs
+  geom_line(data = filter(comb_data, exp != "Hector - Other Experiments" & 
+                            scenario != "historical")) +
+  # Plotting 1750 CO2 data point
+  geom_point(data = filter(comb_data, scenario == "historical" & year < 1850)) +
+
+  # Cleaning up plot
   facet_wrap(~ variable, scales = "free") +
-  ggtitle("Comparing Parameterizations")
-ggsave(OUTPUT, width = 16)
+  ggtitle("Comparing Parameterizations") +
+  scale_color_manual(values = c("blue",  "#009E73","#D55E00", "grey", "#CC79A7")) + 
+  theme(legend.text = element_text(size = 15), legend.key.height = unit(2, "cm"))
+ggsave(OUTPUT, width = 16, height = 16)