Tried optimizing for OHC

JGCRI · Jun 25, 2024 · be355ee · be355ee
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diff --git a/results/12_alpha_ecs_ohc_unc_nmse.txt b/results/12_alpha_ecs_ohc_unc_nmse.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.64953154546281
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	1.042
+S	2.32537207553702
+alpha	0.438414955305681
+
+Objective Function Value: 4.77e-05
+Counts: 40
+Counts: 40
+Convergence:  0
+Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH
+
+CO2 MSE: 8.57
+T MSE:   0.0127
+RMSE:    2.93
+T MSE accounting for unc: 0.0026
+OHC MSE accounting for unc: 9.71
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.23
+TCR:  1.67
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              1.01
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 425
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.78
+Methane ERF:               0.545
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.51
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.484
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.138
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.545
+ssp126	2041	2060	0.688
+ssp126	2081	2100	0.473
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.603
+ssp245	2041	2060	1
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.4
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.654
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.24
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.51
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.7
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.16
diff --git a/results/alpha_comparison_plots.jpeg b/results/alpha_comparison_plots.jpeg
diff --git a/results/ohc_plot.jpeg b/results/ohc_plot.jpeg
diff --git a/scripts/alpha_ohc_unc_nmse.R b/scripts/alpha_ohc_unc_nmse.R
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+# Script for experiment 12
+# Script to use normalized T, OHC and CO2 MSEs while accounting for T, OHC unc
+# Also includes ECS and alpha as params to optimize over
+# Uses OHC range from Matilda table rather than manuscript script
+# Author: Peter Scully
+# Date: 6/25/24
+
+### Constants and Imports ###
+
+# Importing libraries
+library(hector)
+
+# Setting up file paths
+COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
+SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts")
+RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results")
+
+CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+                      "Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv")
+TEMP_PATH <-
+  file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+            "HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")
+
+OHC_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, "OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv")
+
+
+INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
+PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS(), AERO_SCALE())
+
+OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "12_alpha_ecs_ohc_unc_nmse.txt")
+
+
+source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
+
+### Getting observational data ###
+co2_data <- get_co2_data(CO2_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH, include_unc = TRUE)
+ohc_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_PATH, include_unc = T)
+obs_data <- rbind(co2_data, temp_data, ohc_data)
+
+### Calling optim ###
+best_pars <- run_optim(obs_data = obs_data,
+                       ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                       params = PARAMS,
+                       lower = c(0.5 - 0.232, 2.2 - 0.44, 1.16 - 0.118, 2, 0),
+                       upper = c(0.5 + 0.232, 2.2 + 0.44, 1.16 + 0.118, 5, 3),
+                       yrs = 1750:2014,
+                       vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()),
+                       error_fn = mean_T_CO2_OHC_nmse_unc,
+                       include_unc = T,
+                       method = "L-BFGS-B",
+                       output_file = OUTPUT)
+
+### Outputting individual MSEs ###
+hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, 
+                          params = PARAMS, 
+                          vals = best_pars, 
+                          yrs = 1750:2014, 
+                          vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), HEAT_FLUX()))
+
+T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                     hector_data = hector_data, 
+                     var = GMST(), 
+                     yrs = 1850:2014)
+CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                       hector_data = hector_data, 
+                       var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
+                       yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
+T_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data,
+                             hector_data = hector_data,
+                             var = GMST(),
+                             yrs = 1850:2014,
+                             mse_fn = mse_unc)
+OHC_mse_unc <- get_var_mse_unc(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                                hector_data = hector_data, 
+                                var = "OHC", 
+                                yrs = 1957:2014,
+                                mse_fn = mse_unc)
+
+write_metric("CO2 MSE:", CO2_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("T MSE:  ", T_mse, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("RMSE:   ", sqrt(mean(CO2_mse, T_mse)), OUTPUT) # not 100% sure this is how we want to calculate this
+write_metric("T MSE accounting for unc:", T_mse_unc, OUTPUT)
+write_metric("OHC MSE accounting for unc:", OHC_mse_unc, OUTPUT)
+write("", OUTPUT, append = TRUE)
+
+### Outputting table metrics ###
+calc_table_metrics(PARAMS, best_pars, OUTPUT)
diff --git a/scripts/graph_comparison_plots.R b/scripts/graph_comparison_plots.R
@@ -88,8 +88,15 @@ alpha_bb_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
                             vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
 alpha_bb_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, Big Box Fit w/ S, Alpha"
 
+alpha_ohc_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE,
+                         params = PARAMS,
+                         vals = c(0.65, 1.76, 1.04, 2.33, 0.438),
+                         yrs = 1750:2014,
+                         vars = c(GMST(), CONCENTRATIONS_CO2()))
+alpha_ohc_data$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc (incl. OHC), Fit w/ S, Alpha"
+
 #hector_data <- rbind(default_data, nmse_data, nmse_bb_data, ecs_data, ecs_bb_data, alpha_data, alpha_bb_data)
-hector_data <- rbind(default_data, alpha_data)
+hector_data <- rbind(default_data, alpha_data, alpha_ohc_data)
 hector_data$lower <- hector_data$value
 hector_data$upper <- hector_data$value
 

diff --git a/scripts/other/ohc_comparison.R b/scripts/other/ohc_comparison.R
@@ -153,12 +153,14 @@ obs_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_FILE, include_unc = T)
 default_data <- calc_ohc(NULL, NULL, include_unc= T)
 reg_box_data <- calc_ohc(PARAMS, c(0.57, 1.76, 2.38, 2.95, 0.49), include_unc= T)
 low_diff_data <- calc_ohc(PARAMS, c(0.57, 1.76, 1.1, 2.95, 0.49), include_unc= T)
+ohc_optim_data <- calc_ohc(PARAMS, c(0.65, 1.76, 1.04, 2.33, 0.44), include_unc= T)
 
 default_data$scenario <- "Hector - Default"
 reg_box_data$scenario <- "Hector - All Params, Reg Box"
 low_diff_data$scenario <- "Hector - All Params, Reg Box, Diff = 1.1"
+ohc_optim_data$scenario <- "Hector - All Params, Reg Box, Matilda Diff, Optimize for OHC"
 
-comb_data <- rbind(obs_data, default_data, reg_box_data, low_diff_data)
+comb_data <- rbind(obs_data, default_data, reg_box_data, low_diff_data, ohc_optim_data)
 
 ggplot(data = comb_data, aes(x = year, y = value, color = scenario)) + 
   geom_ribbon(data =