Merge pull request #16 from kdorheim/temp_smoothing

Tried smoothing temp data

results/smooth_temps_10yr.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.528262342844422
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	2.4
+
+Objective Function Value: 2.32
+
+CO2 MSE: 4.57
+T MSE:   0.0772
+RMSE:    2.14
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.51
+TCR:  1.76
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.73
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.87
+Methane ERF:               0.54
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.729
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.894
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.717
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.744
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.08
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.1
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.749
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.29
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.98
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.76
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.93
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.876
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.74
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.79

results/smooth_temps_164yr.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.528262550029036
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	2.4
+
+Objective Function Value: 2.3
+
+CO2 MSE: 4.57
+T MSE:   0.0772
+RMSE:    2.14
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.51
+TCR:  1.76
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.73
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.87
+Methane ERF:               0.54
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.729
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.894
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.717
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.744
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.08
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.1
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.749
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.29
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.98
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.76
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.93
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.876
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.74
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.79

results/smooth_temps_3yr.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.528263386504877
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	2.4
+
+Objective Function Value: 2.32
+
+CO2 MSE: 4.57
+T MSE:   0.0772
+RMSE:    2.14
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.51
+TCR:  1.76
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.73
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.87
+Methane ERF:               0.54
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.729
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.894
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.717
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.744
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.08
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.1
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.749
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.29
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.98
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.76
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.93
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.876
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.74
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.79

results/smooth_temps_50yr.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.528261345579967
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	2.4
+
+Objective Function Value: 2.32
+
+CO2 MSE: 4.57
+T MSE:   0.0772
+RMSE:    2.14
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.51
+TCR:  1.76
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.73
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.87
+Methane ERF:               0.54
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.729
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.894
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.717
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.744
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.08
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.1
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.749
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.29
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.98
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.76
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.93
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.876
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.74
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.79

results/smooth_temps_5yr.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+parameters	values
+beta	0.528263352380768
+q10_rh	1.76
+diff	2.4
+
+Objective Function Value: 2.32
+
+CO2 MSE: 4.57
+T MSE:   0.0772
+RMSE:    2.14
+
+***Key Metrics***
+TCRE: 1.51
+TCR:  1.76
+
+***Historical Warming and ERF***
+GSAT Warming:              0.73
+Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
+Total Aerosol ERF:         -1.24
+WMGHG ERF:                 3.87
+Methane ERF:               0.54
+
+***Future Warming***
+scenario	start	end	GSAT
+ssp119	2021	2040	0.729
+ssp119	2041	2060	0.894
+ssp119	2081	2100	0.717
+ssp126	2021	2040	0.744
+ssp126	2041	2060	1.08
+ssp126	2081	2100	1.1
+ssp245	2021	2040	0.749
+ssp245	2041	2060	1.29
+ssp245	2081	2100	1.98
+ssp370	2021	2040	0.76
+ssp370	2041	2060	1.43
+ssp370	2081	2100	2.93
+ssp585	2021	2040	0.876
+ssp585	2041	2060	1.74
+ssp585	2081	2100	3.79

scripts/error_functions.R

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 #          observed values
 mse <- function(x, y) {
   SE <- (x - y)^2
-  return(mean(SE))
+  return(mean(SE[!is.na(SE)]))
 }
 
 # rmse - function to find root mean squared error between two vectors
@@ -72,5 +72,32 @@ mean_T_CO2_mse <- function(obs_data, hector_data) {
                          var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
                          yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
 
+  return(mean(c(T_mse, CO2_mse)))
+}
+
+# smooth_T_CO2_mse: function to find the mean of smoothed temperature and CO2
+#                   MSEs between observed & predicted data for a given variable
+#
+# args: 
+#   obs_data    - data frame of observed data formatted like Hector data frame
+#   hector_data - data frame outputted by Hector
+#
+# Returns: MSE between predicted and observed data for var
+smooth_T_CO2_mse <- function(obs_data, hector_data) {
+
+  # Getting data frame with just smoothed data that works with get_var_mse
+  smooth_data <- filter(obs_data, variable == "Smooth T")
+  smooth_data$variable <- GMST()
+
+  # Getting  mses
+  T_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = smooth_data, 
+                       hector_data = hector_data, 
+                       var = GMST(), 
+                       yrs = 1850:2014)
+  CO2_mse <- get_var_mse(obs_data = obs_data, 
+                         hector_data = hector_data, 
+                         var = CONCENTRATIONS_CO2(), 
+                         yrs = c(1750, 1850:2014))
+
   return(mean(c(T_mse, CO2_mse)))
 }

scripts/graph_smooth_temps.R

@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+# Script to make smoothed temperature comparison plot
+# Author: Peter Scully
+# Date: 6/17/24
+
+# Importing libraries
+library(hector)
+library(zoo)
+library(ggplot2)
+
+# Setting up file paths
+COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data")
+SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts")
+RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results")
+
+CO2_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+                      "Supplementary_Table_UoM_GHGConcentrations-1-1-0_annualmeans_v23March2017.csv")
+TEMP_PATH <-
+  file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR,
+            "HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv")
+
+INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector")
+
+# Setting other constants
+PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY())
+BEST_PARS <- c(0.528263386504877, 1.76, 2.4) # from 3 year results
+
+OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "graph_smooth_temps.jpeg")
+
+
+
+source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R"))
+
+### Getting observational data ###
+temp_data <- get_temp_data(TEMP_PATH)
+
+obs_data <- temp_data
+
+# Getting smoothed temperatures
+for (k in c(3, 10)) {
+  smoothed_temps <- rollmean(temp_data$value, 
+                             k = k, 
+                             align = "center",
+                             fill = NA)
+  smoothed_temp_data <- temp_data
+  smoothed_temp_data$value <- smoothed_temps
+  smoothed_temp_data$scenario <- paste("Smoothed, k =", k)
+  obs_data <- rbind(obs_data, smoothed_temp_data)
+}
+
+### Getting Hector data ###
+hector_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, 
+                          params = PARAMS, 
+                          vals = BEST_PARS, 
+                          yrs = 1850:2014, 
+                          vars = GMST())
+hector_data$scenario <- "Fit to Smoothed (and unsmoothed) Data"
+
+### Plotting data ###
+comb_data <- rbind(obs_data, hector_data)
+ggplot(data = comb_data) + 
+  geom_line(aes(x = year, y = value, color = scenario))
+ggsave(OUTPUT, width = 9)

scripts/major_functions.R

@@ -317,7 +317,10 @@ objective_fn <- function(obs_data, ini_file, params, par, yrs, vars, error_fn,
 #   params      - vector of Hector parameters to modify
 #   par         - vector of initial values for params. Default is NULL, meaning
 #                 that Hector default parameters will be used as initial values
-#   sd          - vector of standard derivs for par. Only used if using LBFGS-B
+#   sd          - vector of standard derivs for par. Only used if using LBFGS-B.
+#                 If NULL, use provided lower and upper bounds
+#   lower       - lower bound for using LBFGS-B
+#   upper       - upper bound for using LBFGS-B
 #   yrs         - year range to get Hector data from
 #   vars        - Hector variables to get data on
 #   error_fn    - function to calculate error between observed/predicted vals
@@ -330,9 +333,9 @@ objective_fn <- function(obs_data, ini_file, params, par, yrs, vars, error_fn,
 #          function value to given output file
 #
 # note: uses an error function from error_functions.R
-run_optim <- function(obs_data, ini_file, params, par = NULL, sd = NULL, yrs, 
-                      vars, error_fn, include_unc = F, method = "Nelder-Mead",
-                      output_file) {
+run_optim <- function(obs_data, ini_file, params, par = NULL, sd = NULL, 
+                      lower = NULL, upper = NULL, yrs, vars, error_fn, 
+                      include_unc = F, method = "Nelder-Mead", output_file) {
   # Creating vector of default parameters
   if (is.null(par)) {
     default_core <- newcore(ini_file)
@@ -352,8 +355,10 @@ run_optim <- function(obs_data, ini_file, params, par = NULL, sd = NULL, yrs,
                           error_fn = error_fn, 
                           include_unc = include_unc)
   } else if (method == "L-BFGS-B") {
-    lower <- par - sd
-    upper <- par + sd
+    if (!is.null(sd)) {
+      lower <- par - sd
+      upper <- par + sd
+    }
     optim_output <- optim(par = par, 
                           fn = objective_fn, 
                           obs_data = obs_data,