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zhuwq0 authored Feb 27, 2024
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15 changes: 11 additions & 4 deletions docs/lectures/07_statistics.md
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$$
% g\left(t-t_i, M ; \theta\right)=\frac{K \cdot \exp \left(\beta\left(M-M_c\right)\right)}{\left(t-t_i+c\right)^p}
\lambda(t)=\mu+\sum_{t_i<t} K \cdot \exp \left(\beta\left(M-M_c\right)\right) \cdot\left(t-t_i+c\right)^{-p}
\lambda(t)=\mu+\sum_{t_i<t} K \cdot \exp \left(\beta\left(M_i-M_c\right)\right) \cdot\left(t-t_i+c\right)^{-p}
$$
- $\mu$ is the background rate
- $K$ is the productivity
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### Incorporate spatial triggering into ETAS

$$
\lambda(x, y, t \mid \mathcal{H})=\mu+\sum_{t_i<t} \frac{K \cdot \exp \left(\beta\left(M-M_c\right)\right)}{\left(t-t_i+c\right)^p} \cdot \frac{1}{\left(x^2+y^2+d\right)^q}
\lambda(x, y, t \mid \mathcal{H})=\mu+\sum_{t_i<t} \frac{K \cdot \exp \left(\beta\left(M_i-M_c\right)\right)}{\left(t-t_i+c\right)^p} \cdot \frac{1}{\left(x^2+y^2+d\right)^q}
$$

- $q$: the spatial decay rate of intensity following an event
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### Deep learning for earthquake statistics


![h:450](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/48ea117d-e133-4392-af90-24f6ab568f0f/grl66186-fig-0001-m.jpg)
![](./assets/grl66186-fig-0001-m.jpeg)

<!-- footer: "Using Deep Learning for Flexible and Scalable Earthquake Forecasting, Kelian et al. 2023" -->

---

### Deep learning for earthquake statistics

![h:450](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/c5f0feda-4d47-4257-920a-62cc3dc44cca/grl66186-fig-0002-m.jpg)
![](./assets/grl66186-fig-0002-m.jpg)


---

### Deep learning for earthquake statistics

![](./assets/41598_2023_38033_Fig1_HTML.webp)
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