[原文链接](https://signalvnoise.com/posts/3967-what-would-it-take-to-prove-me-wrong)
“Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose” — Bill Gates
The golden path is to give almost all intuitive ideas the benefit of the doubt, but then articulate that doubt as clearly as possible. The quicker you determine which ideas are duds, the quicker you can load the next batch.