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---
title: A pragmatic guide to Climate Change
description: This guide is a pragmatic guide to what Climate Change is, what the drivers behind it are, and what we, as individuals, can do about it.
image: https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/1655848/29027789-6f2358b0-7b82-11e7-882f-af0ca55703a1.png
---
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<h1>A pragmatic guide to Climate Change</h1>
<p style="color: darkgray; font-size: small;">
If you see anything inconsistent, or would like to propose a change, feel free to edit the page on <a href="https://github.com/tmrowco/tmrow.com/blob/master/climatechange.html" target="_blank"><i class="fa fa-github"></i> github</a> or submit an <a href="https://github.com/tmrowco/tmrow.com/issues" target="_blank"><i class="fa fa-exclamation-circle" aria-hidden="true"></i> issue</a>.
</p>
<p>
This guide is a pragmatic guide to what Climate Change is, what the drivers behind it are, and what we, as individuals, can do about it.
</p>
<div id="toc">
<h4>1. The Earth</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="#the-state-of-climate-change">The state of Climate Change</a></li>
<li><a href="#consequences">Consequences</a></li>
<li><a href="#what-causes-it?">What causes it</a></li>
</ul>
<h4>2. Humans</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="#where-do-greenhouse-gases-come-from?">Where do greenhouse gases come from?</a></li>
<li><a href="#fossil-fuels-are-used-everywhere--and-for-good-reasons">Fossil fuels are used everywhere, and for good reasons</a></li>
</ul>
<h4>3. What can we do?</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="#objective--2-tons-co2eq-per-human-per-year-by-2050">Objective: 2 tons CO2eq per human per year by 2050</a></li>
<li><a href="#transportation--reduce-long-distance-travels">Transportation: Reduce long-distance travels</a></li>
<li><a href="#electricity--remove-coal--gas-and-oil-power-plants">Electricity: remove coal, gas and oil power plants</a></li>
<li><a href="#food--avoid-red-meat">Food: avoid red meat</a></li>
<li><a href="#information-must-be-accessible-and-widely-spread">Information must be accessible and widely spread</a></li>
</li>
</div>
<hr/>
<h1>1. The Earth</h1>
<h2>The state of Climate Change</h2>
<div>
<p>
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia", writes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf" target="_blank">fifth assessment</a>.
</p>
<div class="graph">
<div class="title">Temperature anomalies</div>
<div class="description">°C compared to 1951-1980 average</div>
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Source: <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)</a> (<a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/647_Global_Temperature_Data_File.txt" target="_blank">data</a>)
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<p>
Sixteen of the 17 warmest years have all occurred since 2001 (with the exception of 1998).
Furthermore, NOAA reported in August 2016 that each of the previous 16 months <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607#temp" target="_blank">were the warmest they've ever measured</a>.
The measured warming has been found to be consistent across <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/" target="_blank">seasons</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/anttilip/status/891730388497965056" target="_blank">regions</a>.
</p>
<p>
We have now achieved a temperature increase of 1°C since the end of the 70s. <b>A change of 1°C in 50 years is unprecedented</b>, as it can be seen from the following reconstruction of temperatures in the last 11 000 years:
</p>
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<div class="description">°C compared to 1951-1980 average</div>
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Source: <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198" target="_blank">A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years</a> (<a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2013/03/07/339.6124.1198.DC1" target="_blank">data</a>) before 1880, <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)</a> (<a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/647_Global_Temperature_Data_File.txt" target="_blank">data</a>) after 1880
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<p>
What is worrying is not so much the change itself, but rather <b>the speed at which this change is taking place</b>.
Historically, a change of 1°C seems to happen in thousands of years - not decades.
The Earth is a complex ecosystem, and disturbing it by as little as a couple of degrees in the blink of decades (or even centuries) is a heavy disturbance.
</p>
</div>
<h2>Consequences</h2>
<p>
A change of a couple of degrees of the average yearly temperature is far from a minor event. <a href="https://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/predicting-the-future/how-do-the-present-temperatures-compare-to-the-past-ones/" target="_blank">When Earth's temperature was 5°C lower</a>, the sea level was 120m lower and all of Northern Europe and Canada were covered by a gigantic ice cap (one could hike from Vermont to Greenland).
Furthermore, average temperatures do not tell the whole story.
As average temperatures increase, the likelihood of extreme temperature events <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html">might increase as well</a>.
</p>
<p>
A change of a couple of degrees over the surface of the Earth first causes the oceans to absorb the extra heat.
In the process, they expand (rising the sea level) and cause increased evaporation, which leads to perturbed air and water currents.
This yields an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, such as drought, hurricanes or floods.
This is already observed as e.g. coral reefs are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/science/great-barrier-reef-coral-climate-change-dieoff.html" target="_blank">starting to die</a>.
</p>
<p>
Longer term effects are harder to quantify as a temperature change this sudden has never been witnessed in the past.
To get an rough idea, <a href="http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer" target="_blank">this map</a> shows what the world will look like 4° warmer while <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170808-climate-change-is-disrupting-the-birds-and-the-bees" target="_blank">this article</a> shows how sensitive birds and bees are to climate change.
Furthermore, higher temperatures and more extreme weather causes crops to fail which will force <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/magazine/how-a-warming-planet-drives-human-migration.html" target="_blank">refugiees to flee inhabitable regions</a>.
That's ultimately <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603158/hotter-days-will-drive-global-inequality/" target="_blank">bad for the economy</a>.
</p>
<p>Climate change is a serious issue.</p>
<h2>What causes it?</h2>
<p>
Some gases are transparent to the sun's <b>incoming rays</b> heating the Earth, but are opaque (acting as mirrors) with respect to <b>outgoing rays</b> emitted back from the Earth.
Those gases act as a blanket, trapping heat that is unable to escape.
They are called greenhouse gases due to their warming behaviour.
This <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" target="_blank">greenhouse effect</a> stabilises our climate, keeping nights relatively warm despite behind deprived of sunlight.
</p>
<p>
One of those greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>).
By drilling <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/" target="_blank">ice cores</a> (columns of ice containing small bubbles of old trapped air), scientists have been able to infer historical CO<sub>2</sub> concentration up to 800 000 years BC.
This concentration has been relatively stable up to the industrial revolution, where it skyrocketed.
Again, what is worrying is the speed at which the change of concentration is happening. Both the concentration level and the speed of change are unprecendented in the history of measurements (use the handles at the bottom of the graph to zoom in and out):
</p>
<div class="graph">
<div class="title">Atmospheric CO2 concentration in the last 40 000 to 800 000 years</div>
<div class="description">in ppm (particles per million)</div>
<div class="chart" id="ghg_time_series"></div>
<div class="source">
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/17975" target="_blank">Ice Core records</a> (<a href="https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/antarctica2015co2composite.txt" target="_blank">data</a>) before 1959 and <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html" target="_blank">Mauna Loa records</a> (<a href="ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt" target="_blank">data</a>) after 1959.
</div>
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<p>
The <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases" target="_blank">same trend is visible</a> with other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) and nitrous oxyde (N<sub>2</sub>O).
</p>
<p>
By comparing the factors causing heating and cooling of the atmosphere between the pre-industrial period (where the greenhouse gas atmospheric levels had not yet increased) and now, we observe that the drastic increase in greenhouse gases <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/" target="_blank">is the main driver behind the observed warming</a> (although some other effects do cause a certain amount of cooling):
</p>
<div class="graph">
<div class="title">Relative changes in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing" target="_blank">radiative forcing</a> in 2011 compared to 1750</div>
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">WG1 AR5, Fig. 8.15 p697</a> (<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WG1AR5_AIISM_Datafiles.xlsx" target="_blank">data</a>)
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<p>
It is important to state that <b>some greenhouse gases will keep warming the Earth many years after they have been emitted</b>, because they do not disappear instantaneously.
Up to 40% of the CO<sub>2</sub> emitted today <b>will still be present 1 000 years from now</b>, thus still causing warming (see FAQ 12.3 <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>). <a href="http://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/predicting-the-future/will-climate-change-get-rapidely-to-a-halt-if-we-quickly-decrease-the-emissions/" target="_blank">If we were to stop emissions today</a>, CO<sub>2</sub> levels would essentially never come back to its pre-industrial level on time scales relevant for our society.
</p>
<p>
This is in stark contrast with the immediate and ephemeral cooling effect of volcanos eruptions or aerosols that stay in the atmosphere for a very short time.
It is therefore very important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions very quickly, as <b>they will affect the climate in the centuries (even millennials) to come</b>. So how do we do it?
</p>
<h1>2. Humans</h1>
<h2>Where do greenhouse gases come from?</h2>
Most greenhouse gases come from burning <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel" target="_blank">fossil fuels</a> (oil, gas or coal). That happens as soon as we drive a car, take a plane or use electricity.
It also indirectly happens when we consume objects assembled from parts transported from afar, where oil probably was used as transportation fuel.
<div class="graph">
<div class="title">Man-made greehouse gas emissions in 2010</div>
<div class="description">% of total</div>
<div class="chart" id="ghg_origin"></div>
<div class="source">
Source: <a href="https://www.accenture.com/t00010101T000000__w__/br-pt/_acnmedia/PDF-11/Accenture-Strategy-Energy-Perspectives-Consequences-COP21.pdf">Accenture Energy Perspectives - Consequences of COP21 for the Oil and Gas Industry</a>, Fig. 12 p14.<br />
A fascinating Sankey diagram shows this in much more details <a href="https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/world-ghg-emission-flow-chart-2012_v9-c-asn-ecofys-2016_02.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.
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<p>
A substancial amount of agriculatural emissions comes from <b>cows and other livestock emitting methane</b> (CH<sub>4</sub>) as part of their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enteric_fermentation" target="_blank">digestive process</a>.
Furthermore, <b>deforestation leads to less trees absorbing CO<sub>2</sub></b> through <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthesis" target="_blank">photosynthesis</a>, and the use of <b>nitrogen-based fertilizers</b> in agriculture emits Nitrous Oxyde (N<sub>2</sub>O), which is a greehouse gas.
Note that the use of fossil fuels (or electricity) for operating agriculatural machines is not counted here.
</p>
<p>
Finally, a substancial amount of emissions of industrial processes is the <b>chemical reaction responsible for the production of cement</b> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_concrete#Carbon_dioxide_emissions_and_climate_change" target="_blank">releases CO<sub>2</sub></a>.
Again, note that the use of fossil fuels (or electricity) in order to operating production machines is not counted here.
</p>
<h2>Fossil fuels are used everywhere, and for good reasons</h2>
<p>
Historically, the world's energy has come from burning trees (biomass) for heat and tool manufacturing.
However, the invention of an efficient steam engine by James Watt in 1784 meant humans were now able to convert existing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel" target="_blank">fossil fuels</a> (coal, and later oil and gas) into intensive mechanical work (lifting heavy objects or turning the wheels of a very heavy train for example).
Furthermore, it enabled humans to build machines to dig up even more fossil fuels, enabling an exponential growth of our energy usage.
</p>
<p>
The discovery of new types of fuels such as oil and gas did not replace the usage of existing fuels: it fueled additional growth instead.
</p>
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<div class="title">World primary energy consumption since 1800</div>
<div class="description">in EJ (exajoules)</div>
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<div class="source">
Source: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources/#global-total-energy-production-long-run-view-by-source">Our World In Data</a> (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy-consumption-1800-2015.csv">data</a>)
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<p>
Although wind and solar power are a decent part of newly installed energy production facilities nowadays (we hear about it very often in the news), it is still only 1% percent of global energy supply.
In fact, we see that we currently still get <b>83% of our energy from fossil fuels</b>, which surprinsingly is <b>exactly the same as in 1980</b>: the growth of renewables has been matched by (or even <a href="http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction" target="_blank">outpaced by</a>) a similar growth of fossil fuels. How come?
</p>
<p>
The answer is that fossil fuels pack an intense amount of energy in a small volume and small weight.
Oil in particular, being light and dense, enabled the investion of modern transportation.
<b>The energy released when burning 1 liter of oil is equivalent to 25 professional athletes cycling for one hour.
That single liter of oil weighs under 1 kg and costs 100 to 1000 times less than the equivalent human labor.</b>
Thus it is no mystery that intensive human labour got replaced by machines, propelling humanity into an industrialised age where the use of fossil fuels <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture" target="_blank">displaced jobs from agriculture to the service sector</a>.
</p>
<p>
Every day, an average person on Earth uses roughly <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE" target="_blank">60 kWh</a> of energy per day.
That means that <b>every day, we each have an equivalent of 15 professional cyclists dedicated to us to support our living standards</b>.
The current quality of life that we are enjoying has been enabled by the efficient use of fossil fuels freeing us from intensive human labour.
</p>
<p>