the-scout-mindset.md

the-scout-mindset.md

Introduction:

• What traits lead to good judgement? More than clever, intelligent, patience, etc., there' another trait that's very important but overlooked: the scout mindset.
• Scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.
• Knowing how to reason / see flaws in arguments don't help people in thinking better, unless they're able to see flaws in their own arguments.
• How to get that mindset?
  • #1: realize that truth isn't in conflict with other goals
    • myth: seeing the world realistically leads to depression
    • myth: you must be delusionally overconfident to start a company (many famous founders actually expected their companies to fail)
  • #2: learn tools that make thinking easier to see
  • #3: appretiate the emotional rewards of scout mindset
    • make you psychologically much freer

Chapter 1: two types of thinking

• Motivated reasoning: When we have a strong belief, we seek evidence that supports this and ignore / reason out evidence that goes against. (solider mindset: trying to defend our beliefs)
• It's easy to spot in other people, but it doesn't feel like motivated reasoning for us internally. But unconsciously, we're protecting our beliefs and engaging int MR.
• Accuracy motivated reasoning: we seek to find out what's true, irrespective of how it impacts us. (scout mindset: wants to create a map of what's really out there, even though he has internal preferences)
• Scouts know that maps are approximations of reality (and they could be completely wrong when new evidence comes up). They're open to updating the map as they get new information.
• Scouts think ahead of time about all the things in which the plan could fail.
• Scouts invite other people to tell the truth even if it's painful.
• We keep switching between scouts and soldiers based on context.

Chapter 2: soldier mindset

• what function does motivated reasoning serve? First three are deception of ourselves, next three are deception of other people.
  • comfort:
    • denying the reality temporarily feels good
    • eg. I'm going to give up, I won't be able to get my grades up no matter how hard I try
  • self-esteem: feeling good about ourselves
    • to protect our egos and feel good about ourselves
    • eg. messy desk is a sign of creativity, you can't be successful like me unless you up in the same amount of work, etc.
    • students with lower grades change their beliefs: grades are not important overall.
  • morale: motivating ourselves to do hard things
    • most people think P(startup success) for their company is >70%, even though the baseline is 10%.
    • focus on reasons why company could work, instead of why it might fail
  • persuasion: convincing others so that we can convince ourselves
    • lawyers, academics, etc.
    • we want people around us to believe that: I'm a good person, I'm disciplines, I work hard, etc.
  • image: choosing beliefs that make us look god
    • What kinds of person would believe a claim like this, and is that how I want other people to see me?
  • belonging: fitting in your social group
    • ignoring evidence to not change your belief against your group norms.
• Learn about cognitive biases doesn't fix why we do motivated reasoning. We need to be able to clearly see what's motivating our reasoning in ourselves.

Chapter 3: why truth is more valuable than we realize

• In soldier mindset, we ask "can I believe it?" about things we want to accept and "must I believe it?" about things we want to reject.
  • Motivation: comfort, self-esteem, morale, persuation, image, belonging
• In scout mindset, our thinking is guided by "should I believe it?"
  • Motivation: make good judgement calls about which problems are worth fixing, which risks are worth taking, how to pursue our goals, who to trust, etc.
• soldier mindset vs scout mindset -- they have tradeoffs and we do this tradeoffs unconsciously.
• It's reasonable to be rationally irrational. Which is consciouslly deciding that being irrational is important to get us to do necessary things.
• We unconsciously overvalue soldier mindset and undervalue scount.
  • short-term bias: we prefer sleeping in, rather than working out
  • The benefits of scout mindset are not just for the present decision you're taking, but it's good in the long term to develop this habit and this improves every decision you make by making this a habit.
• We underestimate the effects of self-deception
  • when you tell a lie, it's hard to tell what you've committed yourself to
  • lies we tell ourselves (through motivated reasoning affect us too); eg. you might think you're smarter than you are, but what happens when you score less on an exam? you'll have to come up with a new reason to explain that. This causes ripple effects through your map of reality.
  • This is alarming, we need to compensate for this by ysing hte scout mindset.
• We overestimate social costs
  • eg. you lie to the doctor about taking you medication to get his approval, rather than contempt. rationally, this judgment of the doctor doesn't mean anything and you're better off telling the truth: you get the best medical advice.
  • making a fool of yourself feels a lot more significant than it actually is
  • our instinct is to take the soldier mindset, we need to actively compensate for that and make this a habit
  • we overestimate the costs of social disapproval
• An accurate map is more useful now
  • we have many more options right now, more opportunities, etc. Deciding which problems in life we want to solve, and which are worth solving is a matter of judgment. We take many more decisions now, and scout mindset helps improve our judgment on each of these things.
  • Seeing clearly is important for the long-term decisions we make

Chapter 4: signs of a scout

• Main roadblock for being in scout mindset: believing that we're already in it. You tend to think your judgment is superior because you're using the scout mindset
• Being smart and knowledgeable doesn't make you a scout
  • As knowledge / education / scientific literacy increases, convervatives are less likely to believe in climate change and liberals are more likely. This shows that motivated reasoning is playing a role here: not just the raw evidence.
  • As people become smarter their opinions diverge based on their political stance.
• If you're a scout, you should be able to pinpoint concerte examples where you used that mindset.
• 5 signs of scout mindset
  • Do you tell other people when you realize they were right? "You were right and I was wrong."
  • How do you react to personal criticism?
    • Examples of criticism that you used to improve yourself. Do you go out of your way to seek criticism, and make it easier for others to do so?
  • Do you ever prove yourself wrong?
  • Do you take precautions to avoid fooling yourself?
  • Do you have any good critics?
  • Can you recognize yourself being in scout mindset?

Chapter 5: Noticing bias

• To notice bias, run counterfactual thought experiments. There are 5 types of thought experiments that you can run.
• #1: the double standard test
  • Am I judging other people by the standard I wouldn't apply to myself?
  • Sometimes you also judge yourself more harshly, for example, imagine how you would feel if someone else in the class asked a stupid question -> it wouldn't be a big deal.
• #2: the outsider test
  • What would you do, if you haven't already invested so much into this?
• #3: the conformity test
  • Would you defend your views, even if the other person tells you he doesn't hold it anymore?
  • When someone convinces you of something, be wary that they might say "I was just playing devils advocate, this doesn't make sense". So build opinions by yourself.
  • Would you still have kids in a world where only 30% of hte people had kids?
• #4: selective skeptic test
  • Imagine this evidence supported the opposing side, how credible would you find it?
• #5: status quo bias test
  • If you current decision is not the status quo, would you still make it?

Chapter 6: How sure are you?

• We have unreasonable certainity about our beliefs. As scouts, we'd want to think in shades of grey and give probability value to our beliefs.
• If you're so sure about somehting, think about how much money you're willing to bet

Chapter 7: Coping with reality

• In critical situations, people have wishful thinking / do motivated reasoning to deny reality. But this is when it's the most important to be in touch with reality.
• People use motivated reasoning to be motivated in light of lots of rejections. But there's a better way. "Yes, I'm not a good sales person, but I am getting better at it" or "If I continue to keep working at it, there's no reason why I can't be the best" -- use a more honest reasoning
• You've given your best, so the outcome doesn't matter -- use that mindset in uncertain situations
• When we're feeling bad, use coping strategies that are honest, instead of wishful thinking.
  • you can use gratitude to not feel too distraught
• Conceding your ground in arugments, increases your reliablity credulity.

Chapter 8: motivation without self-deception

• "self-belief" model of success: if you convince yourself that you'll succeed, you'll be motivated in adverse situations, and eventually succed.
• But is it a good thing to be irratiionally optimistic about your chances of success?
• If you want to succeed, see which path you can pursue where you have a higher likelihood of success; instead of delusionally following one path.
• Be rationally optimistic, try to judge the odds accurately and then take the decision. Accurately seeing the odds gives us a better bigger picture, and possibly better paths to follow.
• Accurate picture of the odds helps you judge how much to stake on success.
• Be motivated by "this is a bet worth taking" instead of "this will work"
• Results have a lot of variance. When you make bets and they fail, understand that it might be just the variance. You don't know about it unless you have more samples.
• Just do the best based on your current reasoning, things might not work out due to chance (don't blame yourself for it). eg. bowling a slower ball last ball of the over; it's a good idea based on the information. Don't feel bad if it doesn't workout. If it doesn;t work out enough times, update your mental map.
• Accepting the possibility of failure makes you bold, not timid. It gives you psychological freedom.
• “You want to get into a mental state where if the bad outcome comes to pass, you will only nod your head and say ‘I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds, and I would make the same bets again, given the same opportunities.’"

Chapter 9: Influence without overconfidence

• People are more receptive to your opinion when you say it modestly / with caveats.
• People judge you on social confidence (certainity that you know what you're saying), not epistemic confidence (cetrainity tht something with work)
• Tone of voice, posture, calmness work far better than having epistemic confidence about the outcome.
• So you don't really need to be an expert of something, you just need to be comfortable in your own skin to convince people.
• uncertainty "in you" caused by your lack of knowledge looks bad. uncertainty "in the world" caused because reality is messy doesn't improves confidence in you as long as you communicate using the three rules:
  • uncertainty is justified
  • give informed estimates
  • have a plan
• you don't need to promise success to be inspiring

Chapter 10: how to be wrong

• change your beliefs slowly over time. update them as you get more evidence, you don't have to change it 180 degrees overnight
• superforesaters are the ones who learn from their mistakes and update their beliefs each time they are wrong.
• each time we fix our beliefs in seemingly something trivial, we're building the habit to do this naturally and it affects all our judgements.
• take domain general learning from the mistakes in judgments you make
• when you're wrong, you need to feel bad only if that's because of sloppy thinking; you don't need to feel bad if the decision is wrong when you were thinking like a scout.
• when people prediction are off, they just say "I'm almost right" and reason it out. superforecasters adjust their prediction confidence each time.
• think in terms of updating your belief %, instead of thinking that you're wrong.
• Personally, I can make prediciton about what the results of specific experiments can be (which I'm doing ML research), and update my beliefs each time I get new evidence. This will make me really good at building intuitions about how valuable the research papers from academia are.

Chapter 11: lean into confusion

• Last chapter was about being good at being wrong, now we need to get good at being confused.
• When you encounter evidence counter to your beliefs, see them as interesting puzzles to be solved.
• observations that cross our minds opposed to our beliefs, we're more likely to forget and not ponder upon them.
• See all counter examples to your theories and refine your theory based on it. That's how you build a strong theory, it doesn't happen overnight.
• common forcesator excuse: this stuff is generally unpredictable anyways.
• Don't see other people as irrational, which something seems irrational, dig deeper to understand better about where they are coming from.
• Solving puzzling observations gives us valuable insights and guides us in unexpected directions. They might lay the ground work for a big change / ground breaking new theory.
  • Eg. why was homeopathy working so well? it doesn't make scientific sense. if only doctors looked more closely at this evidence before, they would have come up with the ground breaking theory of the importance of sanitary hygiene much beofre. Don't be one of them, lean into puzzles further.
• Confusion is good. Be willing to stay confused for extended periods of time.
• Instead of trying to fit confusing observations into your preexisting theories, treat them as clues to a new theory. View anamolies as puzzle pieces you collect as you go through the world. note them in a book so that you don't forget.

Chapter 12: escape your echo chamber

• just getting outside our bubble is not good enough to change our mind. it does not work.
  • watching fox news only futhers your views about conservatives.
• enagage with people frmo the other side being reasonable, not "anyone". that's how you can your mind.
• listen to people you share intellectual common ground with; who think diffrently on specific topics.
• dissent frmo people who you don't respect is not useful.
• why do smart people disagree when they're all being reasonable?
  • #1: we misunderstand each others views
  • #2: bad arguments inoculate us against good arguments -- we chunk the other persons argument as a variant of something we've already heard, and don't consider it with a fresh mind
  • #3: our beliefs are interdependent, chaning one requires changing others

Chapter 13: how beliefs become identities

• when you feel oppresed and you're proud of something, they tend to become identities
• signs that a belief is an identity
  • #1: using "I believe" -- you're defining yourself as you explain about how the world works.
  • #2: getting annoyed when an ideaology is critized
  • #3: defiant language about your beliefs
  • #4: a righteous tone
  • schadenfreunde (if you're happy at news that discredits their world views)
  • epithets
  • having to defend your view
• identity makes you less flexible and reduces your judgement

Chapter 14: hold your identity lightly

• you can't give it up completely, because it makes communicating succinctly harder. so hold rthem lightly.
• use it as a description, not a flag to wave proudly.
• say interanlly "I agree with most views that atheists hold, but they're not fully representative of me"
• the moment you think you're superior to others, in terms of your judgement, makes it hard to understand the other side, and hence you can't change their mind.
• acknowledge the problems with you identities clearly, that gives you credence to change other people's mind.

Chapter 15: A Scout Identity

• having the scount mindset (the goal to see how world is as accurately as posible) as your top identity, is what helps you override other identities you might have.
• think of yourself of a student solving puzzles to understand the world.
• take pride being a scout, don't feel good about taking cheap shots at others
• as a scout, you enjoy each time you're chaning you mind
• as you strive to be a scout, you will attract other scouts into your life more. it's okay to alienate people who are not scouts, as they cloud your judgement.