This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:
+This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to use, apply to their own models, review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:
Details of assumptions and how these scenarios were built can be found below.
-These regional pathways together form our 2023 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2021 DFES published in December 2021.
+These regional pathways together form our 2023 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). They also incorporate feedback from stakeholders who engaged with our 2022 DFES published in December 2022.
Previous versions of Northern Powergrid's DFES can be found for 2020, 2021 and 2022, or choose from all our visualisations.
-If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to NPg.System.Planning@Northernpowergrid.com
+If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to System.Forecasting@Northernpowergrid.com
This scenario world is extremely ambitious, in line with our stakeholders' vision, achieving net zero in the late 2040s. The scenario relies on intensive investment in low carbon technologies, as well as early action from government and a high level of engagement from consumers, in order to achieve aggressive rollout rates, especially of EVs and heat pumps.
@@ -157,11 +157,11 @@This scenario shows the earliest credible date when the net zero target is met. Made of the most favourable carbon reductions from each sector and will likely have geographical variances in the way this is done - to suit the regional differences.
+This scenario shows the earliest credible date when the net zero target is met. Made of the most favourable carbon reductions from each sector and will likely have geographical variances in the way this is done - to suit regional differences.
To show data on a map we need to have unique polygons for each Primary substation. To do this we used customer postcodes to identify each ONS Output Area (2021) supplied by each Primary substation using a lookup table from ONS. Output Areas with fewer than 5 customers connected to a Primary substation were excluded. This reduced data issues in the customer database e.g. mistyped customer postcodes. We constructed representative geographies for each Primary substation from the remaining Output Areas. In cases where multiple Primary substations serve the same Output Area, that Output Area was assigned to the Primary substation that serves the most customers. For the 2023 DFES, we have built new polygons for each Primary substation in Northern Powergrid's network using the latest postcode data and the latest Output Areas produced from the 2021 Census.
Knowing the Output Areas connected to each Primary allows us to also build a mapping from Primary to Local Authority.
-Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.
+Some Primary substation geographies may show larger areas on the map than they cover in practice particularly in rural areas where network connectivity may be concentrated in specific parts of an Output Area. The areas shown here are representative for the purpose of showing the Distribution Future Energy Scenario model data and should not be relied upon for checking connectivity or to assess the terms of connection for specific premises.
In the Primaries layer we have included Bulk and Grid Supply Points as "pseudo-Primaries" to give Local Authorities the full picture in their area. These pseudo-Primaries generally appear as small cut-outs. They are used to include large generation and storage connections that are not seen by Primary substations.
The model predictions have been created by Primary substation and that is the definitive view. The Local Authority view is constructed from the Primary substation values. We have found the proportion of a Primary substation's customers in each Local Authority district (as defined in April 2019) by adding up the customers in each Output Area belonging to a specific Local Authority district. For some parameters (e.g. electric vehicles) the values from the Primary substations are apportioned to each Local Authority District and then summated into totals. For values which can't be summated (e.g. Peak demand) we have shown the maximum value for any Primary substation that serves a Local Authority.