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new1.py
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new1.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python
from regress import *
from loaddata import *
from util import *
def wavg(group):
b = group['pbeta']
d = group['log_ret']
w = group['mkt_cap_y'] / 1e6
res = b * ((d * w).sum() / w.sum())
return res
def wavg2(group):
b = group['pbeta']
d = group['cur_log_ret']
w = group['mkt_cap_y'] / 1e6
res = b * ((d * w).sum() / w.sum())
return res
def calc_insd_daily(daily_df, horizon):
print "Caculating daily insd..."
result_df = filter_expandable(daily_df)
# decile = laminsda x: 10.0 * x.rank()/float(len(x))
# result_df['log_ret_decile'] = result_df[['log_ret', 'gdate']].groupby(['gdate'], sort=False).transform(decile)['log_ret']
result_df['bret'] = result_df[['log_ret', 'pbeta', 'mkt_cap_y', 'gdate']].groupby('gdate').apply(wavg).reset_index(level=0)['pbeta']
result_df['badjret'] = result_df['log_ret'] - result_df['bret']
print "Calculating insd0..."
result_df['insd0'] = result_df['insideness'] * np.sign(result_df['badjret'])
result_df['insd0_B'] = winsorize_by_date(result_df['insd0'])
demean = lambda x: (x - x.mean())
indgroups = result_df[['insd0_B', 'gdate', 'ind1']].groupby(['gdate', 'ind1'], sort=False).transform(demean)
result_df['insd0_B_ma'] = indgroups['insd0_B']
print "Calulating lags..."
for lag in range(1,horizon+1):
shift_df = result_df.unstack().shift(lag).stack()
result_df['insd'+str(lag)+'_B_ma'] = shift_df['insd0_B_ma']
return result_df
def calc_insd_intra(intra_df):
print "Calculating insd intra..."
result_df = filter_expandable(intra_df)
result_df['cur_log_ret'] = np.log(result_df['iclose']/result_df['bopen'])
result_df['bret'] = result_df[['cur_log_ret', 'pbeta', 'mkt_cap_y', 'giclose_ts']].groupby(['giclose_ts'], sort=False).apply(wavg2).reset_index(level=0)['pbeta']
result_df['badjret'] = result_df['cur_log_ret'] - result_df['bret']
print "Calulating insdC..."
result_df['insdC'] = result_df['insideness'] * np.sign(result_df['badjret'])
result_df['insdC_B'] = winsorize_by_ts(result_df['insdC'])
print "Calulating insdC_ma..."
demean = lambda x: (x - x.mean())
indgroups = result_df[['insdC_B', 'giclose_ts', 'ind1']].groupby(['giclose_ts', 'ind1'], sort=False).transform(demean)
result_df['insdC_B_ma'] = indgroups['insdC_B']
return result_df
def insd_fits(daily_df, intra_df, horizon, name, middate):
insample_intra_df = intra_df
insample_daily_df = daily_df
outsample_intra_df = intra_df
outsample = False
if middate is not None:
outsample = True
insample_intra_df = intra_df[ intra_df['date'] < middate ]
insample_daily_df = daily_df[ daily_df.index.get_level_values('date') < middate ]
outsample_intra_df = intra_df[ intra_df['date'] >= middate ]
outsample_intra_df['insd'] = np.nan
outsample_intra_df['insdC_B_ma_coef'] = np.nan
for lag in range(0, horizon+1):
outsample_intra_df[ 'insd' + str(lag) + '_B_ma_coef' ] = np.nan
fits_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=['horizon', 'coef', 'indep', 'tstat', 'nobs', 'stderr'])
fitresults_df = regress_alpha(insample_intra_df, 'insdC_B_ma', horizon, True, 'intra')
fits_df = fits_df.append(fitresults_df, ignore_index=True)
plot_fit(fits_df, "insd_intra_"+name+"_" + df_dates(insample_intra_df))
fits_df.set_index(keys=['indep', 'horizon'], inplace=True)
unstacked = outsample_intra_df[ ['ticker'] ].unstack()
coefs = dict()
coefs[1] = unstacked.between_time('09:30', '10:31').stack().index
coefs[2] = unstacked.between_time('10:30', '11:31').stack().index
coefs[3] = unstacked.between_time('11:30', '12:31').stack().index
coefs[4] = unstacked.between_time('12:30', '13:31').stack().index
coefs[5] = unstacked.between_time('13:30', '14:31').stack().index
coefs[6] = unstacked.between_time('14:30', '15:59').stack().index
print fits_df.head()
for ii in range(1,7):
outsample_intra_df.ix[ coefs[ii], 'insdC_B_ma_coef' ] = fits_df.ix['insdC_B_ma'].ix[ii].ix['coef']
fits_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=['horizon', 'coef', 'indep', 'tstat', 'nobs', 'stderr'])
for lag in range(1,horizon+1):
fitresults_df = regress_alpha(insample_daily_df, 'insd0_B_ma', lag, outsample, 'daily')
fits_df = fits_df.append(fitresults_df, ignore_index=True)
plot_fit(fits_df, "insd_daily_"+name+"_" + df_dates(insample_daily_df))
fits_df.set_index(keys=['indep', 'horizon'], inplace=True)
coef0 = fits_df.ix['insd0_B_ma'].ix[horizon].ix['coef']
# full_df.ix[ outsample_intra_df.index, 'insdC_B_ma_coef' ] = coef0
print "Coef0: {}".format(coef0)
for lag in range(1,horizon):
coef = coef0 - fits_df.ix['insd0_B_ma'].ix[lag].ix['coef']
print "Coef{}: {}".format(lag, coef)
outsample_intra_df[ 'insd'+str(lag)+'_B_ma_coef' ] = coef
outsample_intra_df[ 'insd'] = outsample_intra_df['insdC_B_ma'] * outsample_intra_df['insdC_B_ma_coef']
for lag in range(1,horizon):
outsample_intra_df['insd'] += outsample_intra_df['insd'+str(lag)+'_B_ma'] * outsample_intra_df['insd'+str(lag)+'_B_ma_coef']
return outsample_intra_df
def calc_insd_forecast(daily_df, intra_df, horizon):
daily_results_df = calc_insd_daily(daily_df, horizon)
forwards_df = calc_forward_returns(daily_df, horizon)
daily_results_df = pd.concat( [daily_results_df, forwards_df], axis=1)
intra_results_df = calc_insd_intra(intra_df)
intra_results_df = merge_intra_data(daily_results_df, intra_results_df)
full_df = insd_fits(daily_results_df, intra_results_df, horizon, "", middate)
return full_df
if __name__=="__main__":
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description='G')
parser.add_argument("--start",action="store",dest="start",default=None)
parser.add_argument("--end",action="store",dest="end",default=None)
parser.add_argument("--mid",action="store",dest="mid",default=None)
parser.add_argument("--freq",action="store",dest="freq",default=15)
parser.add_argument("--horizon",action="store",dest="horizon",default=3)
args = parser.parse_args()
start = args.start
end = args.end
lookback = 30
horizon = int(args.horizon)
freq = int(args.freq)
pname = "./insd" + start + "." + end
start = dateparser.parse(start)
end = dateparser.parse(end)
middate = dateparser.parse(args.mid)
loaded = False
try:
daily_df = pd.read_hdf(pname+"_daily.h5", 'table')
intra_df = pd.read_hdf(pname+"_intra.h5", 'table')
loaded = True
except:
print "Did not load cached data..."
if not loaded:
uni_df = get_uni(start, end, lookback)
BARRA_COLS = ['ind1', 'pbeta']
barra_df = load_barra(uni_df, start, end, BARRA_COLS)
PRICE_COLS = ['close', 'overnight_log_ret', 'tradable_volume', 'tradable_med_volume_21']
price_df = load_prices(uni_df, start, end, PRICE_COLS)
BAR_COLS = ['insideness', 'adj_trade_size', 'bopen']
intra_df = load_bars(price_df[['ticker']], start, end, BAR_COLS, freq)
daily_df = merge_barra_data(price_df, barra_df)
daily_df = merge_intra_eod(daily_df, intra_df)
intra_df = merge_intra_data(daily_df, intra_df)
daily_df.to_hdf(pname+"_daily.h5", 'table', complib='zlib')
intra_df.to_hdf(pname+"_intra.h5", 'table', complib='zlib')
outsample_df = calc_insd_forecast(daily_df, intra_df, horizon)
dump_alpha(outsample_df, 'insd')
# dump_all(outsample_df)