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<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN"
"http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="en"
lang="en" dir="ltr">
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" />
<title>money</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" media="all" type="text/css" href="all.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" media="screen" type="text/css" href="screen.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" media="print" type="text/css" href="print.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" media="all" type="text/css" href="export.css" />
</head>
<body>
<div class="dokuwiki export">
<!-- TOC START -->
<div id="dw__toc" class="dw__toc">
<h3 class="toggle">Table of Contents</h3>
<div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level1"><div class="li"><a href="#money">Money</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#annual_enrollment">Annual Enrollment</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#domes_todos">Domes Todos</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#breaking_the_market">Breaking the Market</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#fidelity_pages">Fidelity Pages</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#remaining_questionsmisunderstandings">Remaining Questions / Misunderstandings</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#jeffrey_eischen">Jeffrey Eischen</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#meeting_3">Meeting 3</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#promotional_apr_on_credit_card">0% Promotional APR on Credit Card</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#the_quest_of_the_simple_life">The Quest of the Simple Life</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#coin_flip_betting">Coin Flip Betting</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#kevin_o_leary">Kevin O'Leary</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#the_most_important_thing">The most important thing</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#risk">Risk</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#intel">Intel</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#leverage">Leverage</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#stocks">Stocks</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#real_estate">Real Estate</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#downsides">Downsides</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#new_stuff_to_read">New stuff to read</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#how_helpers_make_money">How "helpers" make money</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#momentum">Momentum</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#uk_investing_video">UK Investing Video</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#new_cars_in_us_composition">New Cars in US Composition</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#debt_composition">Debt Composition</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#household">Household</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#china">China</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#smart_beta">Smart Beta</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#historical_stock_price_data">Historical Stock Price Data</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#investment_bloggers">Investment Bloggers</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#greater_fool">Greater Fool</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#interest_rates">Interest Rates</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#financial_advisor">Financial Advisor</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#wealthfront">Wealthfront</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#edward_jones">Edward Jones</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#uncle_jim_s">Uncle Jim's</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#known_expenses_storage">Known expenses storage</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#ern_swr_simulator_code">ERN SWR Simulator code</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#stock_screener">Stock screener</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#brian_feroldi">Brian Feroldi</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#anton_kreil">Anton Kreil</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#yedu_and_arun">Yedu and Arun</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#debt_cycle_dalio">Debt Cycle Dalio</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#what_sectors_usually_profit_most_from_end_of_recession">What sectors usually profit most from end of recession</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#profiting_in_a_known_bear_market">Profiting in a <known> bear market</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#millionaire_next_door">Millionaire Next Door</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#books_i_d_like_to_read">Books I'd like to read</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#palm_beach_research">Palm Beach Research</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#wall_street_journal">Wall Street Journal</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#compounding_interest">Compounding Interest</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#being_wealthy">Being Wealthy</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#stock_picks">Stock picks</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#flash_boyshft_s">Flash Boys / HFT's</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#financial_transactions_checklist">Financial Transactions Checklist</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#boiler_room_movie">Boiler Room (movie)</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#options_trading">Options Trading</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#fritz">Fritz</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#wealthy_accountant">Wealthy Accountant</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#hedge_funds_n_stuff">Hedge Funds 'n stuff</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#economic_indicators">Economic Indicators</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#food_prices">Food Prices</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#fidelity_401k">Fidelity 401k</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#detailed_transactions">Detailed Transactions</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#intel1">Intel</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#relative_performance_of_assets">Relative performance of assets</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#early_retirement_extreme_book">Early Retirement Extreme (book)</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#early_retirement_now">Early Retirement Now</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#bonds">Bonds</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#municipal">Municipal</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#cost_basis">Cost Basis</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#performance_relative_to_peers">Performance Relative to Peers</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#asset_allocation">Asset Allocation</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#index_fund">Index Fund</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#stock_picking">Stock Picking</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#investing_subreddit">Investing subreddit</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#to_ratio">______to ________ Ratio</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#other_stuff">Other stuff</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#the_richest_man_in_babylon">The Richest Man in Babylon</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#goals_for_rest_of_life">Goals for rest of life</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#estate_planning">Estate planning</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#nice_papers">Nice papers</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#hft_background">HFT background</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#market_perspective">Market Perspective</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#dad_s_questions">Dad's Questions</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#investing">Investing</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#unemployment">Unemployment</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#close_to_retirement_age">Close to Retirement age</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#money_games">Money Games</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#credit_union">Credit Union</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#active_vs_passive">Active vs passive</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#visualizing">Visualizing</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#remaining_hurdles">Remaining hurdles</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#what_are_typical_expenses_later_in_life">What are typical expenses later in life?</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#poorgivingselfishness">Poor / giving / selfishness</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#philosophyearly_retirement_bites">Philosophy / Early Retirement Bites!</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#financially_independentsavings">Financially independent / savings</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#sound_mind_investing">Sound Mind Investing</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#semi-retirement">Semi-Retirement</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#advice_from_random_engineer_on_internet_forum">Advice from random engineer on internet forum</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#stock_market">Stock Market</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#sankar">Sankar</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#jeffrey_eischen1">Jeffrey Eischen</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#parents_cfp_meeting">Parents' CFP meeting</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#questions_for_certified_financial_planner">Questions for Certified Financial Planner</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#other_questions">Other questions</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#investment_vehicles">Investment Vehicles</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#reading_a_financial_statement">Reading a financial statement</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#stocks1">Stocks</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#bondsloans">Bonds/Loans</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#tax_loss_harvesting">Tax loss harvesting</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#exchange_traded_funds_etf">Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#bogleheads_guide_to_investing">Bogleheads Guide to Investing</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#cash_flow_game_by_kiyosaki">Cash Flow game by Kiyosaki</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#ynab_investing_course">YNAB Investing Course</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#intel2">Intel</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#software">Software</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#current_budget">Current Budget</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#next_budget">Next Budget</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#rent_vs_buy">Rent vs Buy</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#suneel_k_indian_guy_at_intel_notes">Suneel K. (indian guy at intel) notes</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#rent_vs_buy1">Rent vs Buy</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#on_indians">On Indians</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#investments">Investments</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#loan_calculator">Loan Calculator</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#how_much_loan_can_i_afford">**How much loan can I afford?**</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#budgeting_theory">Budgeting Theory</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#the_talk">The Talk</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#energy">Energy</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#diy_vs_specialization">DIY vs. Specialization</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#coupons">Coupons</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#investing1">Investing</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#banking">Banking</a></div>
<ul class="toc">
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#needs">Needs</a></div></li>
<li class="level3"><div class="li"><a href="#gnucash">Gnucash</a></div></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#getting_stuff">Getting Stuff</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#disputing_transactions">Disputing Transactions</a></div></li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"><a href="#general_tips">General Tips</a></div></li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<!-- TOC END -->
<h1 class="sectionedit1" id="money">Money</h1>
<div class="level1">
<p>
<em>“A penny saved is a penny earned.” -Benjamin Franklin</em>
</p>
<p>
<em>“The whole investing <strong>industry</strong> exists only by making commissions on trades and charging you fees for assets under management. Hence they encourage active trading/management funds and rarely let you see how you perform relative to an index fund (usually worse)” –Marion Boersma (grandpa)</em>
</p>
<p>
<em>Your fees are based on the amount of assets managed, which aligns our incentives with yours – when you do well, we do well. – Fisher Investments</em> Uhh…what about when I do poorly? <strong>You still do well!</strong>
</p>
<p>
<em>“You hear stories of secretaries at Microsoft being millionaires, their groundskeepers driving a Ferrari…I didn't want to be an innovator, I just wanted to make a quick, easy buck. I just wanted in” – Boiler Room</em>
</p>
<p>
The time you spend investing in your occupation/career is probably your best most likely source of income <img src="/lib/images/smileys/icon_smile.gif" class="icon" alt=":-)" /> Don't spend a lot of time becoming an expert on “maybes” / predicting what companies will do well, especially if it is close to random noise anyways!
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Plus the world improves more measurably as compared to “yeah I made a bunch of money! (off of other investors, which is a zero-sum game)”. <em>Arguably though, investors help to some extent by somewhat efficiently allocating capital to profitable ventures</em></div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>I need some more justification of this, but it feels right</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="blockquote-plugin">
<p>
Do something where you’re performing a real service for people. It’ll be a success. I like investment counseling. And I like helping others. It gives you pleasure you can’t get spending thousands of dollars. Sir John Templeton, May 1951
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Money","hid":"money","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":1,"range":"1-1664"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit2" id="annual_enrollment">Annual Enrollment</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Standard stuff of HDHP and basic vision and dental.
</p>
<p>
How much life or disability insurance should I have? Does Intel cover that amount by default?
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> If no, is getting it inside Intel cheaper than outside?</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> If I leave Intel, then need to make sure to increase an external policy or study what it is at the next company.</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Hyatt Legal. Do I need a:
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Will?</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Living trust?</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Full handbook: <a href="0media/psb-handbook-complete.pdf" class="media mediafile mf_pdf" title="psb-handbook-complete.pdf">psb-handbook-complete.pdf</a>
</p>
</div>
<h4 id="life_insurance_claim">Life Insurance Claim</h4>
<div class="level4">
<p>
Call Intel Employee Services at 1-800-238-0486. Need a claim form and proof of death.
</p>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Annual Enrollment","hid":"annual_enrollment","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":2,"range":"1665-2240"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit3" id="domes_todos">Domes Todos</h2>
<div class="level2">
</div>
<h4 id="class">Class</h4>
<div class="level4">
<p>
3 fund portfolio strategy
Recommends a Revocable trust. Hyatt legal is $200/year compared to the $3K for the real cost.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Forces you to create a living will and power of attorney.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h4 id="domes">Domes</h4>
<div class="level4">
<ul>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Get a will and beneficiaries on all accounts.</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Signing up for MetLife legal, probably talk with Zook Law first.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Life insurance, if I left Intel, could I take it with me. You can only buy it when you don't need it. If you need it, then you can't get it anymore!</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Recommend a 20-year-term policy that is renewable.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> It's for when you get cancer and have bills racked up and then die. This can occur even if you're single!</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> When you have kids, then he recommends a 1.0 mil or a 1.5 mil.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Accident insurance. $25 / year.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Probably want a $5-7K car. Lots are good price and good car and good condition. Well worth the investment.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Want a backup method for people to log into without needing my phone (in case it gets lost). Hmmm…Yubikey? Or a different phone?</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> List descriptions of the accounts and why you opened them.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> DONE! Download Social Security statement, see what they say are your earnings and whether you have 40 quarters.</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Send statement to Domes.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Social security pays for you in disability situations, also pays spouse and dependents.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Double check RSU and ESPP tax basis. Same for brokerages.</div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Keep track of running and total contributions/basis to all accounts. HSA, Roth IRA, rollover, 401k,</div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Send Domes reimbursement for last year and maybe this year.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Can gift $15K each year to each mom and dad. Love and benevolence. No rental agreement.</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Tax rates over time.
</p>
<p>
IRS Pubs are not considered a reliable source.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Revproc, a notice, the law itself, those are the quotable things.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Bureau of National Affairs publish condensed booklets on various tax topics. They reference revprocs, etc.</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Want to make sure that the gross proceeds from the various 1099 documents is the correct amount or higher. Don't dare underreport proceeds on schedule d.
</p>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Domes Todos","hid":"domes_todos","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":3,"range":"2241-4322"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit4" id="breaking_the_market">Breaking the Market</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Fascinating series of posts.
</p>
</div>
<h4 id="investing_games">Investing Games</h4>
<div class="level4">
<p>
<a href="https://breakingthemarket.com/math-games/" class="urlextern" title="https://breakingthemarket.com/math-games/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://breakingthemarket.com/math-games/</a>
</p>
<p>
By rolling ahead your bet, the odds start going against you! By making your bet size static or a static portion of your pot, you can keep the odds in your favor.
</p>
<p>
Assumes that buy and hold in one stock is a coin flip every day, which obviously it isn't. However maybe it's similar?!
</p>
<div class="table sectionedit5"><table class="inline">
<thead>
<tr class="row0">
<th class="col0"> Real Life </th><th class="col1"> Coin Flip Game </th><th class="col2"> Outcome </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tr class="row1">
<td class="col0"> Buy and Hold </td><td class="col1"> Reinvest winnings each time </td><td class="col2"> Losing game </td>
</tr>
<tr class="row2">
<td class="col0"> Index Fund </td><td class="col1"> Reinvest 1/N winnings across N stocks, is it rebalancing? </td><td class="col2"> Maybe winning? </td>
</tr>
<tr class="row3">
<td class="col0"> Traditional Portfolio </td><td class="col1"> Rebalance winners and buy losers </td><td class="col2"> Winning, barely </td>
</tr>
<tr class="row4">
<td class="col0"> Trend Following </td><td class="col1"> </td><td class="col2"> </td>
</tr>
<tr class="row5">
<td class="col0"> Best strategy </td><td class="col1"> Fixed bet size, arithmetic! </td><td class="col2"> But then your money would never grow… </td>
</tr>
</table></div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"table","name":"","hid":"table","secid":5,"range":"4736-5122"} -->
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Breaking the Market","hid":"breaking_the_market","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":4,"range":"4323-5124"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit6" id="fidelity_pages">Fidelity Pages</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
For whatever reason they're all different and have misunderstandings of the term “automatic investment”.
</p>
<div class="table sectionedit7"><table class="inline">
<thead>
<tr class="row0">
<th class="col0"> Loc </th><th class="col1"> <abbr title="Uniform Resource Locator">URL</abbr> </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tr class="row1">
<td class="col0"> Auto-Invest (for all accounts, has links to individual pages) </td><td class="col1"> <a href="https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/auto-invest" class="urlextern" title="https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/auto-invest" rel="ugc nofollow">https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/auto-invest</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr class="row2">
<td class="col0"> EFT Transfer Request </td><td class="col1"> <a href="https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/universal-tracker/" class="urlextern" title="https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/universal-tracker/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://digital.fidelity.com/ftgw/digital/universal-tracker/</a> </td>
</tr>
</table></div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"table","name":"","hid":"table1","secid":7,"range":"5257-5480"} -->
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Fidelity Pages","hid":"fidelity_pages","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":6,"range":"5125-5480"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit8" id="remaining_questionsmisunderstandings">Remaining Questions / Misunderstandings</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Mostly points for Jeff Eischen.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> About how much to budget for family?</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> I probably have goals, but they're subconscious and definitely changeable. I don't know what I will want to do!</div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Bonds aren't always a good investment. More often they're not!</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> ERN had a good article on this.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Also, what about using leading indicators like ERN?</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Inverse stock market during known bear?</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Why, if this indicators work, don't mutual funds take advantage of them?</div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> FRORX yields are low right now, because of rising interest rates? (it's a fixed 5% return, right?)</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Why are 20Y bonds worse than 1-3Y bonds (worse for interest rate risk)? Won't they all change value more or less the same as new bond issues come out?</div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Sequence of Return risk</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> If you're “informed” / have a predictable model of the market ala ERN, does having a static glide path even matter? Just re-evaluate! </div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Also, why is Year 0-15 more important than Year 15+? Try with simple example.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> 0% stock (“100% chance of meeting your goal”) vs 100% stock (80% chance of exceeding your goal, 50% chance of <strong>not</strong>). Jeffrey Eischen vs. ERN (has a nice article on saving for a mortgage down payment that I remember)</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Unimportant: Are the above on a CFP exam, particularly sequence of return risk? </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> I hope I'm able to bring something to our conversation together! (I'm not overly boring / uninteresting to him)</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Read some of the recent bullets </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Why bad to sell shares for cash flow? Why tilt your portfolio towards dividends?</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Remaining Questions \/ Misunderstandings","hid":"remaining_questionsmisunderstandings","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":8,"range":"5481-7066"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit9" id="jeffrey_eischen">Jeffrey Eischen</h2>
<div class="level2">
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Jeffrey Eischen","hid":"jeffrey_eischen","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":9,"range":"7067-7094"} -->
<h3 class="sectionedit10" id="meeting_3">Meeting 3</h3>
<div class="level3">
</div>
<h5 id="my_goals">My "Goals"</h5>
<div class="level5">
<p>
Permanent goals:
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Optimize the marginal pleasure and money curve. Mr. Money Mustache's example of 2 parents and 1 child for <$25K (not including mortgage/rent) seems reasonable. I'm basically there already with a <$15K yearly spend. Have to work on the happy part though :) </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> With the leftover money, invest it wisely into my own financial independence and good causes. </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Not so much optimize for happiness, but optimize for sustainable … impact? Man… what is The Good. </div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Medium-term (5 year) goals:
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Become settled in who the God of the Universe is and what Good is.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> With that foundation set, call up Julia or someone similar and probably get married. Maybe invest in a house, maybe not. Probably dedicate 20 years of my life to raising children. </div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Get a better idea of what to do with my life once in a position of financial independence. </div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Not “shrivel up and die”</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Not be stuck in an apartment/house alone.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> It might be even best to stay working at technology companies for a time. Some technology can have impact.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Questions:
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> I like the idea of asset allocation for better returns due to independent volatility. However, if there's no volatility, it can be better to just go with cap-weighted…</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> I still emotionally like market timing the coming recession and upturn, despite some nice videos and articles to the contrary. When to “get back in” is a toughie…I would like convincing out of my emotions if justified…</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> What is Jeffrey's budget for his family? What does he optimize for?</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> What are my blind spots?</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h4 id="response">Response</h4>
<div class="level4">
<p>
You need seasoning. You need to grind through something for a while. Working at Intel and bringing in $100K per year while single is too easy. Why?
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> <em>Why should I add stress to my life?</em> Because it allows you to know when things do get bad, you can grind through it again and make it through / outlast people.</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Gave example of client that ground through 2009 by working two jobs, one a normal shop daytime job and another doing packages for UPS from midnight to 8am.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
32:00 You need to have goals because you can only get so far by optimizing and subtracting unneeded costs. <strong>So what are you going to do with all of this money that you've saved?</strong>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>But I do have goals, kind of!</em></div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> <em>I hesitate to put a goal out there because it might turn out to be foolish/unreachable in the end. For example, <strong>why</strong> do MLSP things? No good reason, other than high school self liked it. </em></div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> <em>Perhaps…but you didn't know that ahead of time</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
39:30 Jeffrey likes FI and being frugal and investing wisely, but if you don't have a plan you'll be twitching in a coffee shop somewhere for lack of human contact!
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> He enjoys being a financial advisor because he can change people's lives on a daily basis. He can help people out of really difficult situations and genuinely help them. Not getting paid the money.</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Why not an active management approach? You're only picking an index fund because there are no fees?
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>No, I believe am happy to pay for consistent out-performance after fees. I am trying to find out how to do that reliably. Even FRORX underperforms the benchmark they stated for themselves! (before taxes, I think)</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
Think <strong>income</strong>, not growth.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>But growth to a retiree can be the same as income, just withdraw periodically!</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
52:30-ish, “Get rid of optimize, optimize your happiness, leveraged, sustainable, marginal pleasure and money curve ”
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> How can I create the most happiness for someone else? <em>One way of doing happiness</em></div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Having money doesn't help. So many of Jeff's friends and acquaintances who make millions per year have committed suicide. <em>Why?</em> Because they didn't find happiness in what they did.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Striving to find happiness is a cautionary tale. Find value instead in what you produce. <em>???!!</em></div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> How do I create what I need to to get the life <strong>I</strong> want to live? Nolan, you're trying to math equation a life out, and it doesn't work that way. <em>What does he mean? I'm guessing not financial</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
<em>Leveraging up and “buying” a home is not what I want to do…</em>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> They go down just like the stock market!</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
<em>Why is a small selling out of a position for means of income bad? Why are dividends so much better than stock buybacks / capital gains?</em>
</p>
<p>
The dollars you invest today need to be more conservative than the later ones because you're going to get scared and sell out.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>Maybe true 18 months ago, but not so much anymore. But still trying to time the market…</em></div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <em>Also going into stocks, for most people, cuts them off years to FI.</em></div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"Meeting 3","hid":"meeting_3","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":10,"range":"7095-11747"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit11" id="promotional_apr_on_credit_card">0% Promotional APR on Credit Card</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
While a 0% loan for a year sounds great, it's a little different with credit cards.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Minimum payment ($25) requires <del>logging in</del> every month. <strong>Automatic withdrawal from checking!</strong></div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> If when the APR resets you don't pay the full amount, you get the full APR applied for the whole period??</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> M1 finance charges ~4% APR to borrow. Quite cheap.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Balance transfer to new card is 3% fee usually. Boo</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Credit utilization goes up</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Not necessarily a bad thing for credit score. Neutral below 10% or something like that.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Would worry about forgetting the reset date, even with calendar.</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Make multiple calendar (email) reminders to start saving, etc.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> What is the benefit? Conservatively 8% if money is invested. On $1000 it's $80/year, on $10K it's $800/year. Not bad. Is it worth the worrying/setup?</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"0% Promotional APR on Credit Card","hid":"promotional_apr_on_credit_card","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":11,"range":"11748-12630"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit12" id="the_quest_of_the_simple_life">The Quest of the Simple Life</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Great old book based in London / UK about different perspectives on money and time.
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Investor looking for the next leveraged hit. But is never satisfied with his piles of money.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Another person…I forgot.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> The author wants to live in the country and work with his hands and mind and be a “good kind of tired” at the end of the day.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Has a great debate with a friend of his about working with the poor in London. His friend appeals to the fact that the author is selfish. I forget the rebuttal kinda, but it's quite good. </div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/17246" class="urlextern" title="http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/17246" rel="ugc nofollow">http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/17246</a>
</p>
</div>
<!-- EDIT{"target":"section","name":"The Quest of the Simple Life","hid":"the_quest_of_the_simple_life","codeblockOffset":0,"secid":12,"range":"12631-13246"} -->
<h2 class="sectionedit13" id="coin_flip_betting">Coin Flip Betting</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
As seen in Financial Risk Management for Dummies, by Aaron Brown of AQR Capital management.
</p>
<p>
<a href="0media/pasted/20190902-110347.png" class="media" title="pasted:20190902-110347.png"><img src="0media/pasted/20190902-110347.png" class="media" alt="" width="400" /></a>
<a href="0media/pasted/20190902-110418.png" class="media" title="pasted:20190902-110418.png"><img src="0media/pasted/20190902-110418.png" class="media" alt="" width="400" /></a>
<a href="0media/pasted/20190902-110453.png" class="media" title="pasted:20190902-110453.png"><img src="0media/pasted/20190902-110453.png" class="media" alt="" width="400" /></a>
<a href="0media/pasted/20190902-110530.png" class="media" title="pasted:20190902-110530.png"><img src="0media/pasted/20190902-110530.png" class="media" alt="" width="400" /></a>
</p>
<blockquote class="blockquote-plugin">
<p>
Hello Aaron,
</p>
<p>
I am enjoying your book so far! I have plenty more to read…
</p>
<p>
However, after thinking about the example in Chapter 1 [1] (link to Google Books), I think your derivation of the expected return is incorrect. Let's run the idealized scenario of N = 250, 125 heads and 125 tails. We would expect the expected value to reflect this idealized scenario accurately, correct?
</p>
<p>
With the 20% / -18% return scenario, the expected value would be:
1.20^(125)*(1-0.18)^(125) = 0.984^125 = $.133. As expected from the trials.
</p>
<p>
With another scenario, a static dollar $.20 / $-.18 return, where the pot doesn't change:
$.20*125 - $.18*125 + 1 = $3.50
</p>
<p>
But this isn't the same as the expected value ….? 1.01^250 = $12.03!
</p>
<p>
I'm confused now…
</p>
<p>
[1] <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=cWazCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PR1&dq=financial%20risk%20management%20for%20dummies&pg=PA16#v=onepage&q&f=false" class="urlextern" title="https://books.google.com/books?id=cWazCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PR1&dq=financial%20risk%20management%20for%20dummies&pg=PA16#v=onepage&q&f=false" rel="ugc nofollow">https://books.google.com/books?id=cWazCgAAQBAJ&lpg=PR1&dq=financial%20risk%20management%20for%20dummies&pg=PA16#v=onepage&q&f=false</a>
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit14" id="kevin_o_leary">Kevin O'Leary</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Really believes in a pre-nup big time and not getting married to avoid getting divorced.
</p>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit15" id="the_most_important_thing">The most important thing</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Good book also by Howard Marks, although a little too high level for me.
</p>
<p>
Their goal isn't to outrun the winners, just matching the index is fine. However, they want to avoid all the downside recession risk that comes with the index. Sounds good to me.
</p>
<p>
Determining whether an investor is skilled (alpha) is not so easily determined after the fact! There were many other possible outcomes that could have but didn't happen. Did they just leverage up and take on more volatility/risk (beta)?
</p>
<p>
Also, investors that are bullish will look good in bullish markets, and look really bad in down markets. Same for vice versa. Just because someone calls the top doesn't mean they didn't have many false alarms before then.
</p>
</div>
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<h3 class="sectionedit16" id="risk">Risk</h3>
<div class="level3">
<p>
Great explanation of risk by Howard Marks in “The Most Important Thing”. Probably a good writeup here: <a href="0media/2014-09-03-risk-revisited.pdf" class="media mediafile mf_pdf" title="2014-09-03-risk-revisited.pdf">2014-09-03-risk-revisited.pdf</a>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> There wouldn't be higher return without corresponding riskiness! <a href="0media/pasted/20190719-151224.png" class="media" title="pasted:20190719-151224.png"><img src="0media/pasted/20190719-151224.png" class="media" alt="" /></a></div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> In the pursuit of being able to analyze something, academics have given into volatility as the only needed measure of risk. There are many more that seem more important. Things aren't a gaussian…</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit17" id="intel">Intel</h2>
<div class="level2">
<blockquote class="blockquote-plugin">
<p>
Intel will not reimburse you for any frequent travel program points used
</p>
</blockquote>
<p>
Rule of 75. <a href="https://www.cordantwealth.com/retiring-from-intel-calculating-years-of-service-determining-retirement-eligibility-and-the-benefits-of-being-an-intel-retiree-part-1/" class="urlextern" title="https://www.cordantwealth.com/retiring-from-intel-calculating-years-of-service-determining-retirement-eligibility-and-the-benefits-of-being-an-intel-retiree-part-1/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://www.cordantwealth.com/retiring-from-intel-calculating-years-of-service-determining-retirement-eligibility-and-the-benefits-of-being-an-intel-retiree-part-1/</a>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> You're not an official retiree unless you meet certain requirements.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Other than accelerating RSU stuff and providing some health plan benefits, it doesn't seem to be worth working 20+ years for Intel for!</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit18" id="leverage">Leverage</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Keith Tax Guy: NO! <a href="https://wealthyaccountant.com/2017/10/25/when-maximizing-gains-are-a-stupid-idea/" class="urlextern" title="https://wealthyaccountant.com/2017/10/25/when-maximizing-gains-are-a-stupid-idea/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://wealthyaccountant.com/2017/10/25/when-maximizing-gains-are-a-stupid-idea/</a>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Your account is always collecting interest, regardless of market motion.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Lots of landlords go bankrupt! </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> It feels good to be debt-free <img src="/lib/images/smileys/icon_smile.gif" class="icon" alt=":-)" /></div>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="blockquote-plugin">
<p>
I always thought it was about how much I was worth. No more. I think you are a helluva lot richer without debt than with a massive net worth. I feel better about myself financially now than ever before. I always knew I owed somebody. Now that is gone and I can yell:
</p>
<p>
“I’M DEBT FREE!!!”
</p>
</blockquote><ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Also future stock returns can be uncertain whereas debt is not. You can spend a lot of unconscious energy worrying about debt.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Also his wife loved it a lot too. More than being a 8-figure person.</div>
</li>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> <a href="https://wealthyaccountant.com/2018/09/24/paying-off-the-mortgage-vs-investing-the-difference/" class="urlextern" title="https://wealthyaccountant.com/2018/09/24/paying-off-the-mortgage-vs-investing-the-difference/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://wealthyaccountant.com/2018/09/24/paying-off-the-mortgage-vs-investing-the-difference/</a></div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h3 class="sectionedit19" id="stocks">Stocks</h3>
<div class="level3">
</div>
<h4 id="upside">Upside</h4>
<div class="level4">
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Margin interest is still individually deductible. However, probably can't meet standard deduction. If you have lots of deduction but not a lot of income, you can convert your qualified dividends to be ordinary income to get a 0% tax rate. Interesting.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h4 id="downside">Downside</h4>
<div class="level4">
</div>
<h4 id="implementation">Implementation</h4>
<div class="level4">
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> HELOC will let you do it.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h3 class="sectionedit20" id="real_estate">Real Estate</h3>
<div class="level3">
<p>
<a href="0media/everyday/money/pasted/20190702-160809.png" class="media" title="everyday:money:pasted:20190702-160809.png"><img src="0media/everyday/money/pasted/20190702-160809.png" class="media" alt="" width="500" /></a>
</p>
</div>
<h4 id="upsides">Upsides?</h4>
<div class="level4">
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Don't have margin calls on the money</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
<strong>Multiply your returns!</strong>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Enthusiastically expounded in this “book”. <a href="0media/7_money_myths_free_download.pdf" class="media mediafile mf_pdf" title="7_money_myths_free_download.pdf">7_money_myths_free_download.pdf</a>. Was recommended from an amazon reviewer for another book, but is quite … not the whole picture.</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h3 class="sectionedit21" id="downsides">Downsides</h3>
<div class="level3">
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Looks great, but you have opening and closing costs on the home.</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> </div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> <a href="https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/07/02/leverage-3/" class="urlextern" title="https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/07/02/leverage-3/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/07/02/leverage-3/</a></div>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="blockquote-plugin">
<p>
Besides, financial portfolios can pay you a positive monthly cash flow. Houses cost money to keep. …
</p>
<p>
Finally, risk. Not only does leverage wildly exaggerate risk in any falling market, but the danger of putting all your net worth in one bucket these days is extreme. Real estate’s a sitting duck for more government taxation as it becomes a symbol of wealth (look at BC). Housing also turns illiquid when the market sours. Financial assets, in contrast, can be sold in seconds. The last thing you want going into retirement is a paid-off home that can’t be turned into cash flow to live on. So a one-asset plan’s a total crap shoot on what conditions may be when that holding must be punted.
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit22" id="new_stuff_to_read">New stuff to read</h2>
<div class="level2">
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> How investors should deal with the overwhelming problem of understnaindg the world economy. Contrarian edge</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> 23 books that changed my life - Morgan Housel Collaborative Fund</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Financial Intelligence: A manager's guide to ….</div>
</li>
<li class="level1 node"><div class="li"> Investing the Templeton Way</div>
<ul>
<li class="level2"><div class="li"> Maybe not though</div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Minervini Youtube (Super Trader Tactics Webinar)</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Getting Started in Options</div>
</li>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Jim Cramer's Real Money</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<h2 class="sectionedit23" id="how_helpers_make_money">How "helpers" make money</h2>
<div class="level2">
<p>
Great article by patio11, kalzemeus software. <a href="https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-brokerages-make-money/" class="urlextern" title="https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-brokerages-make-money/" rel="ugc nofollow">https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-brokerages-make-money/</a>
</p>
<ul>
<li class="level1"><div class="li"> Most money is made by net interest margin. Cash with minimal interest rate given, but taking in Fed overnight rate.</div>