Running List of Main Objectives

[maxtitcomb]

Deadlines:

• Thursday, April 22nd: Have all 3 drafts of our individual forecasts prepared to share.
• Thursday, April 29th: Have final draft completed and ready to go.
• May 3-15th (dead week & finals week): Finalize forecasting model. Prepare for final submission.
• May 15-31st: Input April data released on May 15th to make forecast for weeks of May 1-8th

Forecast submissions will due beginning May 31, 2021 at 11:59 Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00) for forecasts that start May 1. Final forecast submissions will be due on August 31, 2021 at 11:59 Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00) for forecasts that start August 1.

General:

• Read through Modeling issue tab to view classes of models we could use. Learn about different classes of models we could use: Bayesian models (CH 1,2,4,6), neural networks, Machine Learning (ML) Models, etc. Thursday we will go over Bayesian modeling on 3/8/2021 with Marcus. Maybe one month of Machine Learning & one month of Bayesian.
• Use literature examples of forecasting to try out models with different approaches.
• Figure out set up of sensors for Barco site: number, fixed/floating position, etc.

Lin:

• Was going to look into grading process for the model

Max:

• Finish setting up thelio & cloning repository
• Learn more about Neural networks and Bayesian models (monte carlo specifically)
• Plot relationships between drivers & include alongside plots showing Time vs. Drivers
• Create base forecasting model in R to build on and test out grading with. (Variables: diffusion, photosynthesis, respiration, mortality, and others)
• Use Fable R Package to do basic forecasting analysis. Main package site is here

Main links of project requirements and deadlines:

• EFI RCN NEON Ecological Forecast Challenge
• NEON Aquatics Forecasting Challenge_Targets and Other Environmental Variables

A list of some useful links I previously posted:

• Details of the targets, how they are calculated, descriptions of the target files, and examples of other environmental variables that could be used
• Detailed Information on site: Barco Lake
• Download raw data here
• Spatial data: here & here
• General info on our study site from Sarah