@@ -3,18 +3,11 @@ \section{Introduction}
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As of 2019, two thirds (25.7 million) of all people living with HIV globally
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were in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where
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an estimated one million new HIV infections were acquired in 2019 \cite {AIDSinfo }.
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- Data suggest that key populations, including individuals engaged in sex work and men who have sex with men,
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- experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition and onward transmission in SSA
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- \cite {Baral2012 ,Beyrer2012 ,Mishra2012 ,Boily2015 }.
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HIV treatment to reduce onward transmission remains a key element of combination HIV prevention \cite {WHO2016ART }.
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- Effective HIV treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to viral load suppression
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- and has been shown to prevent HIV transmission between sex partners \cite {Lundgren2015 ,Danel2015 ,Cohen2016 }.
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- \par
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Following empirical evidence of partnership-level efficacy of ART
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- in preventing HIV \cite {Lundgren2015 ,Danel2015 ,Cohen2016 },
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+ in preventing HIV transmission \cite {Lundgren2015 ,Danel2015 ,Cohen2016 },
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and model-based evidence of `` treatment as prevention'' \cite {Granich2009 ,Eaton2012 ,Cori2014 },
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- several large-scale community-based trials of universal test-and-treat (UTT)
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- were recently completed \cite {Iwuji2018 ,Havlir2019 ,Hayes2019 }.
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+ several large-scale community-based trials of universal test-and-treat (UTT) were recently completed.
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These trials found that over 2-to-4 years,
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cumulative incidence under UTT did not significantly differ from
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cumulative incidence under ART according to national guidelines \cite {Havlir2019 ,Hayes2019 ,Iwuji2018 }.
@@ -28,11 +21,18 @@ \section{Introduction}
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21--54\% of study participants remained unsuppressed \cite {Iwuji2018 ,Havlir2019 ,Hayes2019 }.
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Populations experiencing barriers to viral suppression under UTT
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may be at highest risk for acquisition and onward transmission, including key populations like
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- sex workers and men who have sex with men \cite {Hakim2018 ,Nyato2019 },
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- as well as youth, and heterosexual men \cite {Green2020 ,Quinn2019 }.
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+ sex workers and men who have sex with men \cite {Hakim2018 ,Nyato2019 }.
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+ Other sub-populations, including youth and heterosexual men, also
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+ experience barriers to engagement in ART care \cite {Green2020 ,Quinn2019 }
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+ that could undermine treatment as prevention.
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While widespread UTT scale-up may fill some coverage gaps,
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equitable access to ART for all populations remains an open challenge.
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\par
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+ Risk heterogeneity, defined by various factors affecting acquisition and onward transmission risk,
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+ is a well-established determinant of epidemic persistence and controllability
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+ with a basis in the modelling literature \cite {Anderson1986 ,Boily1997 }.
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+ Model comparison studies by \citet {Hontelez2013 } and \citet {Rozhnova2016 }
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+ found that projected prevention impacts of ART scale-up were smaller with greater heterogeneity.
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Given the upstream and complementary role of transmission modelling
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in estimating the prevention impacts of ART \cite {Eaton2012 ,Delva2012 },
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we sought to examine how heterogeneity in risk and ART uptake has been represented
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