diff --git a/.Rhistory b/.Rhistory index 89f912d..dc5105e 100644 --- a/.Rhistory +++ b/.Rhistory @@ -1,68 +1,3 @@ -) ,data=d) -precis(m4.5) -# Same Model in STAN -stan_m4.6 <- " -data { -int N; -vector[N] height; -vector[N] weight_s; -vector[N] weight_s2; -} -transformed data{ -real bar_x1; -real x1_sd; -vector[N] x1_std; -real y_sd; -bar_x1 = mean(weight_s); -x1_sd = sd(weight_s); -x1_std = (weight_s - bar_x1)/x1_sd; // centered and scaled -y_sd = sd(height); -} -parameters { -real alpha_std; -real beta1_std; -real beta3_std; -real sigma; -} -transformed parameters { -vector[N] mu; -for (i in 1:N) -mu[i] = alpha_std + beta1_std*weight_s[i] + -beta3_std*weight_s2[i]; -} -model { -// priors -alpha_std ~ normal(0,20); -beta1_std ~ normal(0,2); -beta3_std ~ normal(0,2); -sigma ~ uniform(1,7); -// sigma ~ normal(5,1.5); -// sigma ~ exponential(1/y_sd); -// model -height ~normal(mu,sigma); -} -generated quantities { -real alpha; -real beta1; -real beta3; -alpha = alpha_std - (beta1_std*bar_x1)/x1_sd -+ (beta3_std*bar_x1^2)/x1_sd^2; -beta1 = beta1_std/x1_sd - 2*(beta3_std*bar_x1)/x1_sd^2; -beta3 = beta3_std/x1_sd^2; -}" -data_m4.6 <- list( -N = nrow(d), -height = d$height, -weight_s = d$weight_s, -weight_s2 = d$weight_s2 -) -fit_m4.6 <- stan(data = data_m4.6, -model_code = stan_m4.6, -chains = 4, -iter = 2000) -print(fit_m4.6, pars = c("alpha","beta1", "beta3", "sigma")) -print(fit_m4.6, pars = c("alpha_std","beta1_std", "beta3_std", "sigma")) -precis(m4.5) traceplot(fit_m4.6, pars = "sigma") # Same Model in STAN stan_m4.6 <- " @@ -510,3 +445,68 @@ plot(X,Y, col=cols[Z+1], lwd=3) abline(lm(Y[Z==1]~X[Z==1]), col=2, lwd=3) abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3) abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3) +library(rethinking) +library(tidyverse) +library(dplyr) +library(ggplot2) +library(rstan) +data(WaffleDivorce) +d <-WaffleDivorce +# standardizevariables +d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce) +d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage) +d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage) +View(d) +standardize(d$Divorce) +help(standardize) +??standardize +data(WaffleDivorce) +d <-WaffleDivorce +# standardizevariables +d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce) +d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage) +d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage) +View(d) +mean(d$D) +sd(d$D) +density(d$D) +plot(density(d$D)) +marriage +density(d$Marriage) +plot(density(d$Marriage)) +m5.1 <-quap( +alist( +D ~dnorm(mu,sigma), +mu <-a+bA*A, +a ~dnorm(0,0.2), +bA ~dnorm(0,0.5), +sigma ~dexp(1) +) ,data=d) +precis(m5.1) +data(WaffleDivorce) +d <-WaffleDivorce +# standardizevariables +d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce) +d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage) +d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage) +dat <- list( +D = d$D, +M = d$M, +A = d$A +) +m_DMA <- quap( +alist( +D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma) +mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A, +m_DMA <- quap( +alist( +D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma), +mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A, +a ~dnorm(0,.2), +bM~dnorm(0,.5), +bA~dnorm(0,.5), +sigma~dexp(1) +), data=dat ) +precis(m_DMA) +precis(m_DMA) +plot(precis(m_DMA)) diff --git a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/pcs/windowlayoutstate.pper b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/pcs/windowlayoutstate.pper index 1ef9ef0..4825af4 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/pcs/windowlayoutstate.pper +++ b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/pcs/windowlayoutstate.pper @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ { "left": { - "splitterpos": 107, + "splitterpos": 127, "topwindowstate": "NORMAL", - "panelheight": 803, - "windowheight": 841 + "panelheight": 959, + "windowheight": 997 }, "right": { - "splitterpos": 503, + "splitterpos": 600, "topwindowstate": "NORMAL", - "panelheight": 803, - "windowheight": 841 + "panelheight": 959, + "windowheight": 997 } } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30 b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30 index d8fd37d..59f3920 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30 +++ b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30 @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ "path": "C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/25. Project 2022/Statistical-Thinking-2023/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd", "project_path": "Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd", "type": "quarto_markdown", - "hash": "1647904797", + "hash": "4113012867", "contents": "", "dirty": false, "created": 1673908998203.0, @@ -16,17 +16,17 @@ "Source": "Source", "docOutlineVisible": "1", "rmdVisualCollapsedChunks": "", - "rmdVisualModeLocation": "16884:27202", - "cursorPosition": "924,0", + "rmdVisualModeLocation": "17531:17209", + "cursorPosition": "983,0", "scrollLine": "0", "docOutlineSize": "118" }, "folds": "", - "lastKnownWriteTime": 1675828299, + "lastKnownWriteTime": 1675884203, "encoding": "UTF-8", "collab_server": "", "source_window": "", - "last_content_update": 1675828299557, + "last_content_update": 1675884203764, "read_only": false, "read_only_alternatives": [] } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30-contents b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30-contents index 683e0ca..e15c929 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30-contents +++ b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/per/t/77F68D30-contents @@ -938,3 +938,54 @@ abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3) abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3) ``` + +Divorce Database and Waffle Houses + +```{r} +data(WaffleDivorce) + +d <-WaffleDivorce + +# standardizevariables +d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce) +d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage) +d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage) + +dat <- list( + D = d$D, + M = d$M, + A = d$A +) +``` + +```{r} +m_DMA <- quap( + alist( + D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma), + mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A, + a ~dnorm(0,.2), + bM~dnorm(0,.5), + bA~dnorm(0,.5), + sigma~dexp(1) + ), data=dat ) +``` + +```{r} +m5.1 <-quap( + alist( + D ~dnorm(mu,sigma), + mu <-a+bA*A, + a ~dnorm(0,0.2), + bA ~dnorm(0,0.5), + sigma ~dexp(1) + ) ,data=d) +``` + +```{r} +precis(m_DMA) +plot(precis(m_DMA)) +``` + +```{r} +precis(m5.1) +``` diff --git a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/EA93BB00 b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/EA93BB00 index f1df084..d45c34e 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/EA93BB00 +++ b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/EA93BB00 @@ -5,8 +5,8 @@ "Source": "Source", "docOutlineVisible": "1", "rmdVisualCollapsedChunks": "", - "rmdVisualModeLocation": "16884:27202", - "cursorPosition": "924,0", + "rmdVisualModeLocation": "17531:17209", + "cursorPosition": "983,0", "scrollLine": "0", "docOutlineSize": "118" } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/INDEX b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/INDEX index e19ae3d..4b01b53 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/INDEX +++ b/.Rproj.user/B584AE7E/sources/prop/INDEX @@ -1,3 +1,4 @@ +C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FCausalAnalysis_v9.Rmd="B1529C46" C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FMetaPolls_vFINAL.Rmd="12DA31F2" C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FBayesian-Inference%2FSamplinginPractice_v7.Rmd="706557E6" C%3A%2FUsers%2Flacor%2FOneDrive%2F100.%20Personal%2FSelfDevelopment%2F20.%20Project%202019%2FStockMarket%2FAsset_Analysis_v23.Rmd="8C7CB8DC" diff --git a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c11kjcel8rada/00001a.png b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c11kjcel8rada/00001a.png index e9cf8fe..75f00d1 100644 Binary files a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c11kjcel8rada/00001a.png and b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c11kjcel8rada/00001a.png differ diff --git a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c3qooae84c4xs/00001a.png b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c3qooae84c4xs/00001a.png index 888f4cb..60d5be6 100644 Binary files a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c3qooae84c4xs/00001a.png and b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c3qooae84c4xs/00001a.png differ diff --git a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c5ns7cfqmp4sr/00000f.csv b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c5ns7cfqmp4sr/00000f.csv index 10fa3e2..68a8960 100644 --- a/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c5ns7cfqmp4sr/00000f.csv +++ b/.Rproj.user/shared/notebooks/39C21CC9-Statistical Thinking 2023_v2/1/s/c5ns7cfqmp4sr/00000f.csv @@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ Attaching package: β€˜rethinking’ print.tbl_lazy print.tbl_sql " -"2","── Attaching packages ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.3.2 ──" +"2","── Attaching packages ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.3.2 ──" 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Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/CausalAnalysis_v9.Rmd="BBEEF53F" C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/MetaPolls_vFINAL.Rmd="040CBFF0" C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/Bayesian-Inference/SamplinginPractice_v7.Rmd="C44D6AD8" C:/Users/lacor/OneDrive/100. Personal/SelfDevelopment/20. Project 2019/StockMarket/Asset_Analysis_v23.Rmd="0B603800" diff --git a/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd b/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd index 683e0ca..e15c929 100644 --- a/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd +++ b/Statistical Thinking 2023_v2.qmd @@ -938,3 +938,54 @@ abline(lm(Y[Z==0]~X[Z==0]), col=4, lwd=3) abline(lm(Y~X), lwd=3) ``` + +Divorce Database and Waffle Houses + +```{r} +data(WaffleDivorce) + +d <-WaffleDivorce + +# standardizevariables +d$D <-standardize(d$Divorce) +d$M <-standardize(d$Marriage) +d$A <-standardize(d$MedianAgeMarriage) + +dat <- list( + D = d$D, + M = d$M, + A = d$A +) +``` + +```{r} +m_DMA <- quap( + alist( + D ~ dnorm(mu, sigma), + mu <- a + bM*M + bA*A, + a ~dnorm(0,.2), + bM~dnorm(0,.5), + bA~dnorm(0,.5), + sigma~dexp(1) + ), data=dat ) +``` + +```{r} +m5.1 <-quap( + alist( + D ~dnorm(mu,sigma), + mu <-a+bA*A, + a ~dnorm(0,0.2), + bA ~dnorm(0,0.5), + sigma ~dexp(1) + ) ,data=d) +``` + +```{r} +precis(m_DMA) +plot(precis(m_DMA)) +``` + +```{r} +precis(m5.1) +```