analyze_results-Copy0.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 58,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from pandas import read_csv, DataFrame,concat,notnull,isnull,Series\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import statsmodels.formula.api as sm\n",
    "from statsmodels.stats.anova import anova_lm\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from scipy.stats import gaussian_kde\n",
    "from scipy.optimize import fsolve\n",
    "from scipy.interpolate import InterpolatedUnivariateSpline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 60,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "data.rename(columns={'PARLIAMENT BRIDGE 3(150.0000)':'PARLIAMENT', 'KOTTE ELA NORTH(0.0000)':'KOTTE', \n",
    "                     'KIRILLAPONE2(771.0500)':'KIRILLAPONE2', 'PARLIAMENT_UPPER_REACH(1803.5500)':'PARLIAMENT_UPPER_REACH', \n",
    "         'TALANGAMA(3416.0000)':'TALANGAMA', 'KIRILLAPONE2(1388.0300)':'KIRILLAPONE22', 'TORRINGTON CNL(81.6800)':'TORRINGTON', \n",
    "         'TORRINGTON_B01(33.0600)':'TORRINGTON_B01', 'MAHAWATTA TO HEEN ELA(349.6500)':'MAHAWATTA', \n",
    "         'MAHAWATTA ELA(49.9900)':'MAHAWATTA2', 'WELLAWATTA CNL(0.0000)':'WELLAWATTA', 'DEMATAGODA ELA(0.0000)':'DEMATAGODA', \n",
    "         'DEMATAGODA ELA 2(3414.8899)':'DEMATAGODA2', 'ST. SEBASTIAN NORTH CANAL(1400.8700)':'SEBASTIAN2',\n",
    "         'ST. SEBASTIAN SOUTH CANAL(-75.0000)':'SEBASTIAN3', 'MAIN DRAIN(1094.8000)':'MAIN',\n",
    "         'DEHIWARA CNL(1003.8000)':'DEHIWARA', 'KIRILLAPONE3(2156.1499)':'KIRILLAPONE3',\n",
    "         'KIRILLAPONE2(934.0800)':'KIRILLAPONE23', 'TORRINGTON_B01(33.0600).1':'TORRINGTON_B012',\n",
    "         'SERPENTINE(40.0000)':'SERPENTINE', 'ST.SEBASTIAN_SOUTH_DIVERSION(200.0000)':'SEBASTIAN_SOUTH_DIVERSION', \n",
    "         'ST. SEBASTIAN SOUTH CANAL(1025.1801)':'SEBASTIAN', 'MAIN DRAIN(1177.1600)':'MAIN2'}, inplace=True)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Selects only 2 cross sections"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 61,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "varin1='PARLIAMENT'\n",
    "varin2='SEBASTIAN'\n",
    "subdata=data[[varin1, varin2, 'return_period','wetland_loss','climate_change','runoff','bndconditions','scenario_number']]\n",
    "subdata=concat([subdata,flooded],axis=1)\n",
    "subdata.rename(columns={'Estimated Population Exposed using GN method': 'Pop','share of Total Population using A2'\n",
    "                        : 'share'}, inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## calculates losses"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 62,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pop_multiplier=2.8*0.3"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 63,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def calccost(pop_exposed,gdp_gr,gdp_per_capita_2013,pop_multiplier):\n",
    "    cost=pop_exposed*gdp_per_capita_2013*(1+gdp_gr)**(2040-2013)*pop_multiplier\n",
    "    return cost\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 64,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#GDP per capita 2013 in constant lkr\n",
    "gdp_per_capita_2013=160*10**3\n",
    "gdp_per_capita_2010=128*10**3"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 65,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "subdata.ix[notnull(subdata['share']),'cost']=calccost(subdata.ix[notnull(subdata['share']),'Pop'],0,gdp_per_capita_2013,pop_multiplier)\n",
    "subdata.ix[notnull(subdata['share']),'costlog']=np.log(subdata.ix[notnull(subdata['share']),'cost'])\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## predicts missing water level data points"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 66,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "formula=varin1+\" ~ return_period + wetland_loss + climate_change + runoff  + bndconditions\"\n",
    "olsmodel=sm.ols(formula,data=subdata).fit()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 67,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "predictions=olsmodel.predict(subdata)\n",
    "subdata.loc[subdata[varin1].isnull().values,varin1]=predictions[subdata[varin1].isnull().values]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 68,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "formula=varin2+\" ~ return_period + wetland_loss + climate_change + runoff  + bndconditions\"\n",
    "olsmodel2=sm.ols(formula,data=subdata).fit()\n",
    "res2=olsmodel2.params\n",
    "predictions2=olsmodel2.predict(subdata)\n",
    "subdata.loc[subdata[varin2].isnull().values,varin2]=predictions2[subdata[varin2].isnull().values]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## predicts damages based on a few points using water level"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 69,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "subdata['logPARLIAMENT']=np.log(subdata['PARLIAMENT'])\n",
    "subdata['logSEBASTIAN']=np.log(subdata['SEBASTIAN'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 70,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "formula=\"costlog ~ logPARLIAMENT\"\n",
    "damagemodel=sm.ols(formula,data=subdata).fit()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 71,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "predicted_damages=damagemodel.predict(subdata)\n",
    "subdata.loc[subdata['costlog'].isnull().values,'costlog']=predicted_damages[subdata['costlog'].isnull().values]\n",
    "subdata['costestimated']=np.exp(subdata['costlog'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 72,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "nb_people_exposed=0.8*10**6\n",
    "R=gdp_per_capita_2013*nb_people_exposed"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 73,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def risk_averse_losses(x,wetland_loss):\n",
    "    def calc_int(c,wetland_loss):\n",
    "        subcost=cost.ix[cost['wetland_loss']==wetland_loss,:].copy()\n",
    "        s = InterpolatedUnivariateSpline(subcost['return_period'], subcost['costestimated'], k=1)\n",
    "        zerocost=DataFrame({'return_period':[100,10000],'costestimated':[s(100),s(100)]})\n",
    "        subcost=concat([zerocost,subcost])\n",
    "        subcost.sort(columns='return_period', inplace=True)\n",
    "        subcost['frequency']=1/subcost['return_period']\n",
    "        subcost['costestimated']=subcost['costestimated'].astype(float)\n",
    "        subcost.index=range(len(subcost))\n",
    "        subcost['utility']=np.log(R-subcost['costestimated']+c)\n",
    "        inte=0\n",
    "        for i in range(1,len(subcost)):\n",
    "            trapeze =(subcost.loc[i-1,'frequency']-subcost.loc[i,'frequency'])*(subcost.loc[i,'utility']+subcost.loc[i-1,'utility'])/2\n",
    "            inte += trapeze\n",
    "        inte += subcost.loc[len(subcost)-1,'utility']*subcost.loc[len(subcost)-1,'frequency']\n",
    "        return inte\n",
    "    cost=x.ix[:,['return_period','costestimated','wetland_loss']].copy()    \n",
    "    func = lambda c : calc_int(c,100)-calc_int(0,wetland_loss)\n",
    "    c_initial_guess = 10**9\n",
    "    result = fsolve(func, c_initial_guess)\n",
    "    return result[0]\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 74,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "charac_col2=['climate_change','runoff','bndconditions']\n",
    "charac=subdata.groupby(charac_col2).apply(lambda x:x[charac_col2].head(1))\n",
    "bb=DataFrame(charac.values,columns=charac_col2)\n",
    "new_data2=DataFrame()\n",
    "for wetland_loss in [0,10,50,70]:\n",
    "    vo=subdata.groupby(charac_col2).apply(lambda x:risk_averse_losses(x,wetland_loss))\n",
    "    scenar=subdata.groupby(charac_col2).apply(lambda x:x.ix[(x['wetland_loss']==wetland_loss)&(x['return_period']==5),'scenario_number'])\n",
    "    aa=DataFrame({'scenario_number':scenar.values,'option_value':vo.values,'wetland_kept':[100-wetland_loss]*len(scenar.values)})\n",
    "    new_data2=new_data2.append(concat([bb,aa],axis=1),ignore_index=True)\n",
    "new_data2.index=range(len(new_data2))\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 75,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div style=\"max-height:1000px;max-width:1500px;overflow:auto;\">\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>climate_change</th>\n",
       "      <th>runoff</th>\n",
       "      <th>bndconditions</th>\n",
       "      <th>option_value</th>\n",
       "      <th>scenario_number</th>\n",
       "      <th>wetland_kept</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 2.711029e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  91</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.038139e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  92</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.010840e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  95</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.160352e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  96</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.441886e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  93</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.661584e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  94</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.139124e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  97</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 7.610959e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  98</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.038301e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 101</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9 </th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 8.549017e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 102</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.387751e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td>  99</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 8.815470e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.348623e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 103</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 9.595457e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 104</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.053182e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 107</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 9.589505e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 108</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.761235e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 105</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.047097e+10</td>\n",
       "      <td> 106</td>\n",
       "      <td> 100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 2.596602e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 109</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.965543e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 110</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 2.870051e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 113</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.920953e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 114</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.281601e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 111</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.380772e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 112</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.924572e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 115</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 7.261618e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 116</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.782577e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 119</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 8.159908e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 120</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.101248e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 117</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 8.410281e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 118</td>\n",
       "      <td>  90</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>42</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 2.688500e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 133</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>43</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 5.467305e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 134</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>44</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.361445e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 137</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>45</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.213098e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 138</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>46</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.645797e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 135</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>47</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.310905e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 136</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>48</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.124026e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 139</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>49</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.997604e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 140</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.124726e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 143</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>51</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 6.632817e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 144</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>52</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.540527e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 141</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>53</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 7.271274e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 142</td>\n",
       "      <td>  50</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>54</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.009527e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td> 145</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>55</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.173133e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td> 146</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>56</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.399744e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td> 149</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>57</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.122899e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 150</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>58</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.231735e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td> 147</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>59</th>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.296175e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 148</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>60</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.079599e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 151</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.408018e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 152</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>62</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.679103e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 155</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>63</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.236177e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 156</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>64</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.690182e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 153</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>65</th>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.328268e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 154</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>66</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 8.196290e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td> 157</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>67</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.762145e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 158</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>68</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.289505e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 161</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>69</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 3.747039e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 162</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>70</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1.674436e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 159</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>71</th>\n",
       "      <td> 2</td>\n",
       "      <td> 0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td> 1</td>\n",
       "      <td> 4.549718e+09</td>\n",
       "      <td> 160</td>\n",
       "      <td>  30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>72 rows × 6 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    climate_change  runoff  bndconditions  option_value  scenario_number  \\\n",
       "0                0     0.4              0  2.711029e+09               91   \n",
       "1                0     0.4              1  4.038139e+09               92   \n",
       "2                0     0.5              0  3.010840e+09               95   \n",
       "3                0     0.5              1  5.160352e+09               96   \n",
       "4                0     0.6              0  3.441886e+09               93   \n",
       "5                0     0.6              1  5.661584e+09               94   \n",
       "6                1     0.4              0  4.139124e+09               97   \n",
       "7                1     0.4              1  7.610959e+09               98   \n",
       "8                1     0.5              0  5.038301e+09              101   \n",
       "9                1     0.5              1  8.549017e+09              102   \n",
       "10               1     0.6              0  5.387751e+09               99   \n",
       "11               1     0.6              1  8.815470e+09              100   \n",
       "12               2     0.4              0  5.348623e+09              103   \n",
       "13               2     0.4              1  9.595457e+09              104   \n",
       "14               2     0.5              0  6.053182e+09              107   \n",
       "15               2     0.5              1  9.589505e+09              108   \n",
       "16               2     0.6              0  6.761235e+09              105   \n",
       "17               2     0.6              1  1.047097e+10              106   \n",
       "18               0     0.4              0  2.596602e+09              109   \n",
       "19               0     0.4              1  3.965543e+09              110   \n",
       "20               0     0.5              0  2.870051e+09              113   \n",
       "21               0     0.5              1  4.920953e+09              114   \n",
       "22               0     0.6              0  3.281601e+09              111   \n",
       "23               0     0.6              1  5.380772e+09              112   \n",
       "24               1     0.4              0  3.924572e+09              115   \n",
       "25               1     0.4              1  7.261618e+09              116   \n",
       "26               1     0.5              0  4.782577e+09              119   \n",
       "27               1     0.5              1  8.159908e+09              120   \n",
       "28               1     0.6              0  5.101248e+09              117   \n",
       "29               1     0.6              1  8.410281e+09              118   \n",
       "..             ...     ...            ...           ...              ...   \n",
       "42               1     0.4              0  2.688500e+09              133   \n",
       "43               1     0.4              1  5.467305e+09              134   \n",
       "44               1     0.5              0  3.361445e+09              137   \n",
       "45               1     0.5              1  6.213098e+09              138   \n",
       "46               1     0.6              0  3.645797e+09              135   \n",
       "47               1     0.6              1  6.310905e+09              136   \n",
       "48               2     0.4              0  3.124026e+09              139   \n",
       "49               2     0.4              1  6.997604e+09              140   \n",
       "50               2     0.5              0  4.124726e+09              143   \n",
       "51               2     0.5              1  6.632817e+09              144   \n",
       "52               2     0.6              0  3.540527e+09              141   \n",
       "53               2     0.6              1  7.271274e+09              142   \n",
       "54               0     0.4              0  1.009527e+08              145   \n",
       "55               0     0.4              1  4.173133e+08              146   \n",
       "56               0     0.5              0  1.399744e+07              149   \n",
       "57               0     0.5              1  1.122899e+09              150   \n",
       "58               0     0.6              0  3.231735e+07              147   \n",
       "59               0     0.6              1  1.296175e+09              148   \n",
       "60               1     0.4              0  1.079599e+09              151   \n",
       "61               1     0.4              1  3.408018e+09              152   \n",
       "62               1     0.5              0  1.679103e+09              155   \n",
       "63               1     0.5              1  4.236177e+09              156   \n",
       "64               1     0.6              0  1.690182e+09              153   \n",
       "65               1     0.6              1  4.328268e+09              154   \n",
       "66               2     0.4              0  8.196290e+08              157   \n",
       "67               2     0.4              1  3.762145e+09              158   \n",
       "68               2     0.5              0  1.289505e+09              161   \n",
       "69               2     0.5              1  3.747039e+09              162   \n",
       "70               2     0.6              0  1.674436e+09              159   \n",
       "71               2     0.6              1  4.549718e+09              160   \n",
       "\n",
       "    wetland_kept  \n",
       "0            100  \n",
       "1            100  \n",
       "2            100  \n",
       "3            100  \n",
       "4            100  \n",
       "5            100  \n",
       "6            100  \n",
       "7            100  \n",
       "8            100  \n",
       "9            100  \n",
       "10           100  \n",
       "11           100  \n",
       "12           100  \n",
       "13           100  \n",
       "14           100  \n",
       "15           100  \n",
       "16           100  \n",
       "17           100  \n",
       "18            90  \n",
       "19            90  \n",
       "20            90  \n",
       "21            90  \n",
       "22            90  \n",
       "23            90  \n",
       "24            90  \n",
       "25            90  \n",
       "26            90  \n",
       "27            90  \n",
       "28            90  \n",
       "29            90  \n",
       "..           ...  \n",
       "42            50  \n",
       "43            50  \n",
       "44            50  \n",
       "45            50  \n",
       "46            50  \n",
       "47            50  \n",
       "48            50  \n",
       "49            50  \n",
       "50            50  \n",
       "51            50  \n",
       "52            50  \n",
       "53            50  \n",
       "54            30  \n",
       "55            30  \n",
       "56            30  \n",
       "57            30  \n",
       "58            30  \n",
       "59            30  \n",
       "60            30  \n",
       "61            30  \n",
       "62            30  \n",
       "63            30  \n",
       "64            30  \n",
       "65            30  \n",
       "66            30  \n",
       "67            30  \n",
       "68            30  \n",
       "69            30  \n",
       "70            30  \n",
       "71            30  \n",
       "\n",
       "[72 rows x 6 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 75,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "new_data2"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## risk premium"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 146,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "1.84210274466\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "value1=np.mean(new_data.ix[select,'annuallosses'])-np.mean(new_data.ix[~select,'annuallosses'])\n",
    "print(value1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 147,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "-4.59422121844e-07\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "value2=np.mean(new_data.ix[select,'riskannloss'])-np.mean(new_data.ix[~select,'riskannloss'])\n",
    "print(value2)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
  "kernelspec": {
   "display_name": "Python 3",
   "language": "python",
   "name": "python3"
  },
  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
   },
   "file_extension": ".py",
   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
   "version": "3.3.5"
  }
 },
 "nbformat": 4,
 "nbformat_minor": 0
}