Stochastic Models Used
Poisson | Gamma renewal processes | Weibull | Lognormal | Normal Double Exponential | ETAS | Brownian Passage Time
Stage 1
-Determine regional constraints on aggregate fault motions from geodetic measurements
-Map faults and fault segments
-Estimate the slip on each fault segment principally from paleoseismic data
-Determine for each segment a 'flip factor' the extent to which long-term slip on the segment is accomodated aseismically
-Model uncertainty in fault segments length, widths, and slip factors as independent Caussian random variables with mean 0.
-Draw a set of fault segment dimensions and slip factors at random from that probability distribution
-Identify ways in which segments of each fault can rupture separately and together. Each combination of segments is a 'seismic source'
-Determine the extent to which long-term fault slip is accommodated by rupture of each combination of segments for each fault.
Natural Disaster Models
-Natural disasters are treated like 'casino games' with probabilities
i.e. Urn Model