Skip to content

[Poll Proposal] Determining consensus on recent and future multi-choice numerical poll outcomes #270

Open
@grctest

Description

@grctest

Abstract

Gridcoin has had a robust voting mechanism for several years now, with recent hardening and poll requirements definition is has become a trustworthy method of determining consensus on important Gridcoin matters. There is however a need to establish network/community consensus regarding how we should determine the outcome of multi-option numerical polls, like the recent rewards multiplier poll.

Motivation

The poll 'Determining Consensus On Future Staking And Magnitude Rewards' recently completed with a final Poll Vote-weight of 91,722,179 which represented 42.62% of AV-W, which exceeds the 35% minimum PVW barrier to validate the poll outcome.

The polling results were as follows:

Poll Option Percent
500% 41.89
2000% 30.16
1000% 8.72
200% 8.09
100% (no Change) 6.52
1500% 3.54
300% 1.07

This poll indicates that a majority of users (93.48 %) want to apply a rewards multiplier to increase both staking and crunching rewards on the Gridcoin network.

The outcome of this poll requires further clarification on how to evaluate the outcome of this poll, whether we should use First Past The Post or Proportional Representation.

If users voted to use First Past The Post (FPTP) the result would be a 500% increase in rewards, based on 41.89% of votes.

And if users voted for Proportional Representation (PR) the result would be a 978.96% increase in rewards, based on 100% of votes.

Given the rebalancing poll passed, we can calculate the impact as follows:
9600 28,750

Type Daily staking rewards Daily crunching rewards
Rebalanced 14,650 23,700
FPTP ( *500 % ) 73,241 ( ~76.3 GRC/block ) 118,508 ( ~1.03 GRC/Mag )
PR ( *978.96 % ) 143,401 ( ~149.4 GRC/block ) 232,029 ( ~2.02 GRC/Mag )

By creating this follow up poll we will achieve:

  • Stronger consensus on the matter of increasing rewards
  • Improvements to the polling process

Rational

Missing poll outcome determination methods in requirements/wiki

The Gridcoin voting wiki and previously voted upon poll requirements proposal lacks details on how to determine the outcome of polls:
https://gridcoin.us/wiki/voting.html
#227

There is a combination of historical precedent for both sides of this matter:

Without clarity/consensus on this matter, assumptions are being made about how to determine polling outcomes based off subjective historical beliefs/standards which are not written down in any guidelines/requirements/wikis.

Voting on this matter doesn't block the next client update

The upcoming mandatory client upgrade is most associated with the "Proposed Rebalancing Of The Reward And Vote Weight Calculations" proposal, which has passed.

The rewards multiplier can be applied at a later without a client upgrade, so whilst voting on the rewards multiplier outcome does delay the substantial increase in rewards it won't impose any delay to the next mandatory client upgrade influenced by the other poll.

It's therefore rational to validate network consensus on these matters since it doesn't block progress whilst ensuring we're all on the same page.

The time till the next mandatory client is live is also months away, so this poll itself doesn't delay the outcomes of the prior polls.

Specifications

Determining voting outcome for future poll requirements/wiki documentation

Depending on the outcome of the proposed polls:

  • First Past The Post

    • Define FPTP as the method of determining poll outcomes
  • Proportional Representation (Weighted Average):

    • Define PR and the weighted average calculation steps for this poll type in the docs
    • Declare consensus on calculation for converting the result of an existing client poll result
    • Explain the conditions where FPTP would still remain the default (for yes/no/abstain polls).

Documentation requiring an update depending on the poll outcome:
https://gridcoin.us/wiki/voting.html
https://github.com/gridcoin-community/Gridcoin-Site/blob/master/wiki/voting.md

Required blockchain polls

  1. How should we determine the final outcome of multi-choice numerical polls?

    Determining consensus on recent and future multi-choice numerical poll outcomes

    • First Past The Post (The highest voted individual poll option wins)

    • Proportional Representation (Calculate a weighted average of all votes to determine the final outcome)

    • Abstain

Voting outcome deciding factor

Since this poll is non-numerical, it'll be decided by first past the post (the highest individual polling option wins).

Discussion

Impacts of both polling outcome methods

Type Daily staking rewards Daily crunching rewards
Rebalanced 14,363 23,236
FPTP ( *500 % ) 73,241 ( ~76.3 GRC/block ) 118,508 ( ~1.03 GRC/Mag )
PR ( *978.96 % ) 143,401 ( ~149.4 GRC/block ) 232,029 ( ~2.02 GRC/Mag )

First Past The Post (FPTP)

Potential positive impacts

Simplicity & Clarity – FPTP is easy to understand and implement, offering a clear, unambiguous winner with no complex calculations or interpretations needed. This straightforward approach can help reduce confusion and make the voting process more accessible to a wider audience.

More Familiar & Intuitive – As a widely used system, FPTP is familiar to many people, making it easier to adopt and less intimidating for participants. Its widespread use in various elections means that most voters are accustomed to the process, which can increase engagement and participation.

Prevents Outcome Dilution – FPTP tends to consolidate support around the most popular option, ensuring that the decision is made by the largest group of voters. This can result in a clear and decisive choice that reflects the preferences of the majority, avoiding the risk of a fractured outcome.

Encourages Decisiveness – With only one winner, FPTP encourages voters to rally behind a clear choice, leading to a definite result. This decisiveness can be useful in situations where a strong, unified decision is needed to guide further action.

Potential negative impacts

If we are using FPTP to decide the outcome from a multi-variable numerical poll, then we're discarding votes entirely rather than influencing the final outcome with their votes. The current referenced poll with 41% leading would be throwing away 58% of votes, whilst the currently winning singular option has the most vote percent the rest of the vote options outweigh it yet their collective say had no influence.

If you're aware that one option is winning by a large margin, you're aware that voting on poll options with very little support will have no impact, so you'll be forced to vote for another option which has a higher chance of beating the highest current poll option.

For example if you wanted to vote 10x or 15x but the first and second place options are 5x and 20x you may have to vote 20x to have a higher than 5x outcome despite originally wanting a more moderate reward rate.

Similarly, if you voted for 1x, 2x or 3x but are seeing 20x starting to beat 5x, you'll be under pressure to vote 5x, higher than what you wanted to vote just in order to beat out the 20x vote.

These are forms of tactical voting you're pushed into participating in so that your vote has more than an abstaining influence.

If your FPTP based poll has many polling options then multiple rounds of polling may be required, as the winning option may be a very small percentage due to the large quantity of poll options spreading results around.

Proportional Representation (PR)

Potential positive impacts

Proportional Representation ensures that all votes contribute to the final outcome rather than being discarded. This results in decisions that better reflect the collective preferences of the community.

While some level of tactical voting can still occur, PR significantly reduces the need for voters to abandon their true preference in favour of a more "winnable" option. This makes voting more honest and fair.

FPTP can lead to highly skewed results where a single, divisive option wins with a plurality of votes while most voters preferred a more moderate option. PR helps smooth out extreme swings by factoring in all votes.

In scenarios where the vote involves a range of numerical options, PR prevents vote-splitting and ensures the final outcome reflects the weighted preferences of the entire electorate rather than just the largest voting bloc.

Potential negative impacts

PR requires clearer poll structuring to ensure that all outcome options are meaningful and do not introduce ambiguity or unintended consequences. More effort is required in defining options and ensuring they align with governance expectations.

Proportional Representation isn't free from users participating in tactical voting, for example with the referenced rewards poll if you wanted the 5x option to win, with PR the current outcome would be approximately 9.6x so you'd need to vote for a lower option than 5x to drag down the outcome closer to 5x. Likewise if you wanted 10x or 15x to win you may have to tactically vote 20x to offset the 1x (no change) voters.

Unlike FPTP, where a single winner is clear, PR-based results require additional interpretation (e.g., weighted averages). This may confuse users, especially if they expect a simple outcome.

Use FPTP but require multiple rounds of polling until one poll option has 51% votes

There is a limit of 20 polling options within the poll creation wizard for multiple-choice questions, if the referenced poll had used 20 poll options it's likely that the distribution of cast ballots would be spread more thin.

If ballots are spread thin then the percentage to win could significantly shrink, for example in the above referenced poll 500% got ~42% vote weight, had there been 20 poll options it may have been for example only 20%, and so the argument that 80% of ballots should be counted over just 20% would be far stronger.

If a poll includes 20 poll options, then perhaps there should be 2 polls - the first to weed out the less popular polling options, then a second poll with the top x results from the first poll could be used. With such a polling practice in place, a single user voting for a 100000x increase with a tiny balance wouldn't massively skew polling results, as these outlier poll options would be filtered out by a first round of polling.

How might First Past The Post affect voting participation?

It's possible that users could be disheartened that their vote was discarded in favour of an overall minority percentage poll option winning over all other options; in effect voting anything other than the winning option is arguably a wasted vote, which could drive voter apathy in the future. This is a well observed IRL voting behaviour, when people feel their vote has no impact they tend to disregard future political polls (e.g. tens of millions of democrats chose not to vote in 2024 despite spending ~$1.5B campaigning - voters lost are not easily regained).

If voting participation lowers enough the impact could be that AVW targets are tougher to meet in the future. Polls can however easily be recreated with longer durations to try again to reach the AVW target (delaying the proposal), or like in the past the AVW could be lowered through a future poll proposal (as has been done before).

Users may recast their ballots to help the 2nd (closest to 1st) poll option to win over the first place poll option if they decide they want their ballot to count instead of having no impact if currently cast against a far-losing poll option - this is likely a one-off recast ballot within a poll if they choose to participate in tactical voting.

How might Proportional Representation (Weighted averages) affect voting participation?

It's likely that users are to cast their ballot multiple times over the course of a poll, to tactically vote as opposed to a one-off recast ballot under FPTP. A greater quantity of cast ballots would contribute additional fees to network key stakeholders.

It's possible that users who thought FPTP would be used could be dismayed by the outcome being different than the top voted poll option, however this could drive them to increase their participation in the poll proposal/discussion system in the future and increase the quantity of higher quality polls in the future. With regards to the referenced rewards poll future changes to the rewards multiplier would not require a mandatory client upgrade and so would face fewer hurdles between proposal and implementation - these changes should not be considered set in stone unlike the network properties of Bitcoin for example.

Which historical polls have had multiple numeric options?

For reference the poll which led to this draft proposal:

Title URL
Determining Consensus On Future Staking And Magnitude Rewards link

The following polls are the new version, their stats can easily be tracked:

Title URL
Treasury And Mandatory Sidestaking Structure Poll link
Grc To Create A Poll link
Mrc-fee Treasury Split Poll link

The following polls are an older version, manual TXID parsing is required to parse the outcomes:

Title URL
Boinc Workshop Reimbursement Poll - Outreach link
Cbr/research Rewards Rate link
Constant Block Reward (cbr) Proposal And Poll link
Meta Poll : What Is The Minimum Vote Weight That Should Be Required For Mandate Behind A Poll To Be Valid? link
Poll Mechanism : Should There Be A Minimum Vote Weight Required For Foundation Polls? link
Vote On Grc Mumble Hangout Reward Distibution And Payment link

The following polls used an average of the results to determine a fairer outcome to all participants:

Title URL
Vote Weight Rebalancing Cruncher Poll link
Vote Weight Rebalancing Investor Poll link

Summary for stakeholders

Existing Gridcoin Users

You won't need to remember Gridcoin's 10+ years of history in order to decide how to evaluate poll outcomes.

Additional poll requirements documentation will improve your future proposed poll quality.

This proposal is a proposal for rules documentation definitions/changes, depending on the outcome a leisure client update could be in scope (likely both GUI and CLI) in the future.

You may need to change how you vote on multi-option numerical polls in the future, depending on the outcome of the proposed poll.

New Gridcoin Users

You won't need to look far back (10+ years) into Gridcoin's history in order to determine what the outcome of a poll will be.

Exchanges & Services

Voting stats websites may need to calculate weighted averages to show the final result, however this is primarily a documentation change proposal.

See Also

#19 (comment)
https://steemit.com/gridcoin/@erkan/gridcoin-poll-how-should-we-interpret-the-outcome-of-a-poll-vote-until-march-29
https://www.mixcloud.com/gridcoin_hangouts/ (several hangouts remain during the first FPTP/PR poll duration - numbers 25, 26 & 27)

Metadata

Metadata

Assignees

No one assigned

    Labels

    No labels
    No labels

    Type

    No type

    Projects

    No projects

    Milestone

    No milestone

    Relationships

    None yet

    Development

    No branches or pull requests

    Issue actions