From 7e4aaac3480070e647aa70747a0489d55666f102 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nikhil Woodruff <35577657+nikhilwoodruff@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 28 Oct 2023 16:01:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] Finalise report --- src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb | 998 +++++++------------ src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx | 9 + 2 files changed, 382 insertions(+), 625 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb index b56f7c815..564dc061c 100644 --- a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb +++ b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb @@ -18,7 +18,6 @@ "\n", "UBI is a significant economic proposition, and our analysis finds that it would leave a major mark on most Northern Ireland residents—in an undeniably progressive fashion. We conclude with caveats of our analysis, opportunities for less disruptive models, and room for more research.\n", "\n", - "\n", "# Northern Ireland today\n", "\n", "The demographic and economic characteristics of Northern Ireland (NI) differ from those of the UK and other UK nations. In the main, this is lower economic output, but higher levels of social security spending. NI has a GDP per capita roughly 20% below the UK average,[^1] and the population of 1.9 million generates around £2.8 billion in Income Tax liabilities.[^2] Higher levels of public spending (with a net fiscal deficit of £9,500 per capita)[^3] in NI increase disposable incomes to offset this. As a result, we estimate that 6.1% of NI is in absolute poverty, compared to 5.5% across the UK.[^4] We also find that NI is more equal, with a Gini index of 0.274 against the UK's 0.333.\n", @@ -27,22 +26,11 @@ "\n", "When it comes to basic income, Northern Ireland is broadly supportive. A 2017 poll by Ipsos MORI found that 66% of Northern Irish people favoured a basic income, compared to 49% of UK residents.[^5] Northern Ireland's net favourability of +55 was more than double that of any other region surveyed.\n", "\n", - "[^1]:\n", - " [Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency, 2020](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/economic-output-statistics/gross-value-added-and-gross-domestic-product#:~:text=In%20terms%20of%20GDP%20per,78.6%20per%20cent%20of%20UK).).\n", - "\n", - "[^2]:\n", - " [HMRC, 2019](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/853118/Disaggregated_tax_and_NICs_receipts_-_methodological_note.pdf).\n", - "\n", - "[^3]:\n", - " [ONS, 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021#:~:text=On%20a%20per%20person%20basis,per%20head%20was%20%C2%A34%2C740.).\n", - "\n", - "[^4]:\n", - " Throughout this paper, we report absolute poverty rates before housing costs, using the OpenFisca UK calibrated Family Resources Survey extrapolated to 2022.\n", - "\n", - "[^5]:\n", - " This is the only poll to ask about basic income for Northern Ireland and the UK, per the [UBI Center's Poll Tracker](polls.ubicenter.org).\n", - "\n", - "\n" + "[^1]: [Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency, 2020](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/economic-output-statistics/gross-value-added-and-gross-domestic-product#:~:text=In%20terms%20of%20GDP%20per,78.6%20per%20cent%20of%20UK).).\n", + "[^2]: [HMRC, 2019](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/853118/Disaggregated_tax_and_NICs_receipts_-_methodological_note.pdf).\n", + "[^3]: [ONS, 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021#:~:text=On%20a%20per%20person%20basis,per%20head%20was%20%C2%A34%2C740.).\n", + "[^4]: Throughout this paper, we report absolute poverty rates before housing costs, using the OpenFisca UK calibrated Family Resources Survey extrapolated to 2022.\n", + "[^5]: This is the only poll to ask about basic income for Northern Ireland and the UK, per the [UBI Center's Poll Tracker](polls.ubicenter.org).\n" ] }, { @@ -126,37 +114,33 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "*Source: [Ipsos MORI, August 2017](https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-uk-adults-would-support-universal-basic-income-principle). Full question: \"Assuming the level would be set roughly at the amount the UK government judged to be necessary to cover basic needs, e.g. food and clothing (but not housing costs), to what extent would you support or oppose the UK Government introducing a basic income?\".*\n", + "_Source: [Ipsos MORI, August 2017](https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-uk-adults-would-support-universal-basic-income-principle). Full question: \"Assuming the level would be set roughly at the amount the UK government judged to be necessary to cover basic needs, e.g. food and clothing (but not housing costs), to what extent would you support or oppose the UK Government introducing a basic income?\"._\n", "\n", "A full UBI in NI would align with the nation's egalitarianism and public opinion. The next section models how NI could do it.\n", "\n", - "\n", "# Exploring the space of feasible policies\n", "\n", "One could model an infinite number of basic income policies for Northern Ireland. We constrained the problem by defining UBI parameter values, tax variables to adjust, and requirements for the resulting policy.\n", "\n", "In particular, we limited to UBI policies of the following form:\n", "\n", - "\n", - "* Amounts per adult (aged 16 or over) of £200, £300, and £400 per month\n", - "* No amount per child\n", - "* UBI payments do not count as income for tax or means-tested benefits\n", + "- Amounts per adult (aged 18 or over) of £200, £300, and £400 per month\n", + "- Amounts per child aged 16 or over of half the adult amount\n", + "- No amount per child younger than 16\n", + "- UBI payments do not count as income for tax or means-tested benefits\n", "\n", "To fund the UBI, we considered three levers:\n", "\n", - "\n", - "* Personal allowance, from zero to the current value of £12,570 (we also adjusted the higher rate threshold to keep it at £50,270)\n", - "* Basic rate increase\n", - "* Ratio of higher and additional rate increases to the basic rate increase, of 0x (not changing the higher and additional rates), 1x, and 2x\n", + "- Personal allowance, from zero to the current value of £12,570 (we also adjusted the higher rate threshold to keep it at £50,270)\n", + "- Basic rate increase\n", + "- Ratio of higher and additional rate increases to the basic rate increase, of 0x (not changing the higher and additional rates), 1x, and 2x\n", "\n", "Finally, we constrained the end policy to:\n", "\n", + "- Be budget-neutral (assuming no behavioural responses) after assuming the UK government would fund 25% of the gross UBI cost\n", + "- Avoid raising marginal tax rates above 100%,[^6] either via the normal tax rates, the phase-out of the personal allowance or benefit phase-outs\n", "\n", - "* Be budget-neutral (assuming no behavioural responses)\n", - "* Avoid raising marginal tax rates above 100%,[^6] either via the normal tax rates, the phase-out of the personal allowance or benefit phase-outs\n", - "\n", - "[^6]:\n", - " We exclude the Child Benefit High-Income Tax Charge from contributing to this limit, because the MTR addition from that is dependent on the number of children, with no upper bound.\n" + "[^6]: We exclude the Child Benefit High-Income Tax Charge from contributing to this limit, because the MTR addition from that is dependent on the number of children, with no upper bound.\n" ] }, { @@ -167,7 +151,15 @@ "hide-input" ] }, - "outputs": [], + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:13<00:00, 5.22s/it]\n" + ] + } + ], "source": [ "from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation\n", "import numpy as np\n", @@ -184,7 +176,14 @@ "import plotly.io as pio\n", "pio.renderers.default = \"notebook\"\n", "\n", - "def filter_to_ni(sim: Microsimulation):\n", + "np.random.seed(0)\n", + "\n", + "def filter_to_ni(sim: Microsimulation) -> None:\n", + " \"\"\"Filters a simulation, in place, to just Northern Ireland.\n", + " \n", + " Args:\n", + " sim (Microsimulation): The simulation to filter.\n", + " \"\"\"\n", " weights = sim.calculate(\"household_weight\")\n", " country = sim.calculate(\"country\")\n", " sim.set_input(\"household_weight\", 2023, np.where(country == \"NORTHERN_IRELAND\", weights, 0))\n", @@ -197,12 +196,13 @@ " adult_amount: float = 400 * 12,\n", " child_amount: float = 200 * 12,\n", " senior_amount: float = 100 * 12,\n", + " child_min_age: int = 16,\n", "):\n", " in_ni = baseline.calculate(\"country\", map_to=\"person\") == \"NORTHERN_IRELAND\"\n", " age = baseline.calculate(\"age\")\n", " retired = baseline.calculate(\"is_SP_age\")\n", " num_adults = ((age >= 18) * (~retired))[in_ni].sum()\n", - " num_children = ((age >= 16) * (age < 18))[in_ni].sum()\n", + " num_children = ((age >= child_min_age) * (age < 18))[in_ni].sum()\n", " num_seniors = (retired)[in_ni].sum()\n", " return adult_amount * num_adults + child_amount * num_children + senior_amount * num_seniors\n", "\n", @@ -217,7 +217,7 @@ " child_bi: float = 0,\n", " adult_bi: float = 0,\n", " senior_bi: float = 0,\n", - "\n", + " child_min_age: int = 16,\n", ") -> Reform:\n", " TIME_PERIOD = \"year:2023:10\"\n", " return Reform.from_dict({\n", @@ -227,7 +227,7 @@ " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(higher_rate_threshold) },\n", " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(personal_allowance) },\n", " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.child\": { TIME_PERIOD: child_bi / 52 },\n", - " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.child_min_age\": { TIME_PERIOD: 16 },\n", + " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.child_min_age\": { TIME_PERIOD: child_min_age },\n", " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.working_age\": { TIME_PERIOD: adult_bi / 52 },\n", " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.senior\": { TIME_PERIOD: senior_bi / 52 },\n", " }, country_id=\"uk\")\n", @@ -237,21 +237,24 @@ " basic_rate_addition: float,\n", " higher_rate_addition: float,\n", " additional_rate_addition: float,\n", + " adult_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " child_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " senior_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " child_min_age: int = 16,\n", ") -> float:\n", - " baseline = Microsimulation()\n", " reformed = Microsimulation(\n", " reform=ubi_ni_reform(\n", " personal_allowance=personal_allowance,\n", - " higher_rate_threshold = 50_270 + 12_570 - personal_allowance,\n", + " higher_rate_threshold = 50_270 - personal_allowance,\n", " basic_rate=0.2 + basic_rate_addition,\n", " higher_rate=0.4 + higher_rate_addition,\n", " additional_rate=0.45 + additional_rate_addition,\n", - " child_bi=0,\n", - " adult_bi=0,\n", - " senior_bi=0,\n", + " child_bi=child_ubi,\n", + " adult_bi=adult_ubi,\n", + " senior_bi=senior_ubi,\n", + " child_min_age=child_min_age,\n", " )\n", " )\n", - " filter_to_ni(baseline)\n", " filter_to_ni(reformed)\n", " return baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum() - reformed.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum()\n", "\n", @@ -274,10 +277,13 @@ " higher_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"higher_rate_earned_income\").values * higher_rate_addition\n", " additional_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"add_rate_earned_income\").values * additional_rate_addition\n", " increased_tax = basic_rate_increased_tax + higher_rate_increased_tax + additional_rate_increased_tax\n", - " return (increased_tax * weight).sum() * 0.83 # Rough benefit response ratio\n", + " return (increased_tax * weight).sum()\n", "\n", "def solve_rates(\n", " adult_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " child_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " senior_ubi: float = 0,\n", + " child_min_age: int = 16,\n", " personal_allowance: float = 12_570,\n", " higher_rate_ratio: float = 1,\n", " additional_rate_ratio: float = 1,\n", @@ -292,78 +298,126 @@ " adjusted_revenue = get_revenue_slow_estimate(personal_allowance, basic_rate_addition, basic_rate_addition * higher_rate_ratio, basic_rate_addition * additional_rate_ratio)\n", " ubi_cost = get_ubi_cost(\n", " adult_ubi, \n", - " adult_ubi * 0.5,\n", - " adult_ubi\n", + " child_ubi,\n", + " senior_ubi,\n", + " child_min_age=child_min_age,\n", " )\n", " return ubi_cost * 0.75 - adjusted_revenue # Assume 25% of the UBI is paid for by Westminster\n", " \n", - " return bisect(adjusted_reform_cost, -1, 1, xtol=1e-3)\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "headline_ubi_rates = []\n", - "personal_allowances = []\n", - "basic_rate_additions = []\n", - "higher_add_addition_ratios = []\n", - "\n", - "for pa in [12_570] + list(range(12_000, -1000, -1000)):\n", - " for ubi_rate in list([200 * 12, 300 * 12, 400 * 12]):\n", - " for higher_add_ratio in list((0, 1, 2)):\n", - " headline_ubi_rates.append(ubi_rate)\n", - " personal_allowances.append(pa)\n", - " basic_rate_additions.append(solve_rates(adult_ubi=ubi_rate, personal_allowance=pa, higher_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio, additional_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio))\n", - " higher_add_addition_ratios.append(higher_add_ratio)\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", - " \"Adult UBI\": headline_ubi_rates,\n", - " \"Personal Allowance\": personal_allowances,\n", - " \"Basic rate addition\": basic_rate_additions,\n", - " \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\": higher_add_addition_ratios,\n", - "})\n", - "df[\"Personal Allowance reduction\"] = 12_570 - df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", - "df[\"Higher rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "df[\"Basic rate addition (x100)\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * 100\n", - "df[\"Additional rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "df[\"UBI/Increase ratio combination\"] = [\n", - " f\"{higher_add_ratio:.0%}\" + \" \" * (ubi // 100)\n", - " for ubi, higher_add_ratio in zip(\n", - " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " )\n", - "]\n", - "df[\"Label\"] = [\n", - " f\"A £{ubi:,.0f} UBI and £{pa:,.0f} Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to {0.2 + basic_rate_addition:.1%}, {0.4 + higher_rate_addition:.1%} and {0.45 + additional_rate_addition:.1%} respectively.\"\n", - " for ubi, pa, basic_rate_addition, higher_rate_addition, additional_rate_addition in zip(\n", - " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " df[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " df[\"Basic rate addition\"],\n", - " df[\"Higher rate addition\"],\n", - " df[\"Additional rate addition\"],\n", + " return bisect(adjusted_reform_cost, -0.5, 1, xtol=1e-3)\n", + "\n", + "from tqdm import tqdm\n", + "\n", + "def create_policy_space(\n", + " child_min_age: int = 16,\n", + "):\n", + " headline_ubi_rates = []\n", + " personal_allowances = []\n", + " basic_rate_additions = []\n", + " higher_add_addition_ratios = []\n", + "\n", + " for pa in tqdm([12_570] + list(range(12_000, -1000, -1000))):\n", + " for ubi_rate in list([200 * 12, 300 * 12, 400 * 12]):\n", + " for higher_add_ratio in list((0, 1, 2)):\n", + " headline_ubi_rates.append(ubi_rate)\n", + " personal_allowances.append(pa)\n", + " basic_rate_additions.append(solve_rates(adult_ubi=ubi_rate, personal_allowance=pa, higher_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio, additional_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio, child_min_age=child_min_age))\n", + " higher_add_addition_ratios.append(higher_add_ratio)\n", + "\n", + "\n", + " df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"Adult UBI\": headline_ubi_rates,\n", + " \"Child UBI\": [x * 0.5 for x in headline_ubi_rates],\n", + " \"Senior UBI\": headline_ubi_rates,\n", + " \"Personal Allowance\": personal_allowances,\n", + " \"Basic rate addition\": basic_rate_additions,\n", + " \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\": higher_add_addition_ratios,\n", + " })\n", + " df[\"Personal Allowance reduction\"] = 12_570 - df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", + " df[\"Higher rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", + " df[\"Basic rate addition (x100)\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * 100\n", + " df[\"Additional rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", + " df[\"UBI/Increase ratio combination\"] = [\n", + " f\"{higher_add_ratio:.0%}\" + \" \" * (ubi // 100)\n", + " for ubi, higher_add_ratio in zip(\n", + " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", + " )\n", + " ]\n", + " df[\"Label\"] = [\n", + " f\"A £{ubi:,.0f} UBI and £{pa:,.0f} Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to {0.2 + basic_rate_addition:.1%}, {0.4 + higher_rate_addition:.1%} and {0.45 + additional_rate_addition:.1%} respectively.\"\n", + " for ubi, pa, basic_rate_addition, higher_rate_addition, additional_rate_addition in zip(\n", + " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " df[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", + " df[\"Basic rate addition\"],\n", + " df[\"Higher rate addition\"],\n", + " df[\"Additional rate addition\"],\n", + " )\n", + " ]\n", + "\n", + " df = df.sort_values([\"Adult UBI\", \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"])\n", + "\n", + " df[\"Basic rate\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] + 0.2\n", + " df[\"Higher rate\"] = df[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", + " df[\"Add. rate\"] = df[\"Additional rate addition\"] + 0.45\n", + "\n", + " df[\"Feasible MTR\"] = np.where(\n", + " # £150k+ MTR under 100%\n", + " (df[\"Add. rate\"] + 0.0325 < 1)\n", + " # £100k-150k MTR under 100%\n", + " & (df[\"Higher rate\"] * (\n", + " np.where(df[\"Personal Allowance\"] > 0, 1.5, 1)\n", + " ) + 0.0325 < 1),\n", + " \"Yes\",\n", + " \"No\",\n", + " )\n", + " return df\n", + "\n", + "df = create_policy_space()\n", + "\n", + "def extract_three_model_rows(df: pd.DataFrame, child_min_age: int = 16):\n", + " pa = df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", + " ubi = df[\"Adult UBI\"]\n", + " ratio = df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", + " model_1_row = df[(pa == 2000) & (ubi == 200 * 12) & (ratio == 2)].iloc[0]\n", + " model_2_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 300 * 12) & (ratio == 1)].iloc[0]\n", + " model_3_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 400 * 12) & (ratio == 0)].iloc[0]\n", + "\n", + " for row in [model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row]:\n", + " # Re-solve with slow estimate\n", + " row[\"Basic rate addition\"] = solve_rates(\n", + " adult_ubi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " child_ubi=row[\"Child UBI\"],\n", + " senior_ubi=row[\"Senior UBI\"],\n", + " child_min_age=child_min_age,\n", + " personal_allowance=row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", + " higher_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", + " additional_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", + " use_quick_estimate=False,\n", + " )\n", + " row[\"Higher rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", + " row[\"Additional rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", + " row[\"Higher rate\"] = row[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", + " row[\"Add. rate\"] = row[\"Additional rate addition\"] + 0.45\n", + " row[\"Basic rate\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] + 0.2\n", + " row[\"Child basic income age\"] = child_min_age\n", + " \n", + " return [model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row]\n", + "\n", + "def row_to_policy(row: pd.Series):\n", + " return dict(\n", + " basic_rate=row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", + " higher_rate=row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", + " additional_rate=row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", + " personal_allowance=row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", + " adult_bi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", + " child_bi=row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", + " senior_bi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " child_min_age=row[\"Child basic income age\"],\n", " )\n", - "]\n", "\n", - "df = df.sort_values([\"Adult UBI\", \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"])\n", - "\n", - "df[\"Basic rate\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] + 0.2\n", - "df[\"Higher rate\"] = df[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", - "df[\"Add. rate\"] = df[\"Additional rate addition\"] + 0.45\n", - "\n", - "df[[\n", - " \"Adult UBI\",\n", - " \"Personal Allowance\",\n", - " \"Basic rate addition\",\n", - " \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\",\n", - "]].to_csv(\"table.csv\", index=False)\n", - "df[\"Feasible MTR\"] = np.where(\n", - " # £150k+ MTR under 100%\n", - " (df[\"Add. rate\"] + 0.0325 < 1)\n", - " # £100k-150k MTR under 100%\n", - " & (df[\"Higher rate\"] * (\n", - " np.where(df[\"Personal Allowance\"] > 0, 1.5, 1)\n", - " ) + 0.0325 < 1),\n", - " \"Yes\",\n", - " \"No\",\n", - " )" + "model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row = extract_three_model_rows(df)" ] }, { @@ -378,7 +432,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
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to 22.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.4568359375,0.4392578125,0.4119140625,0.3845703125,0.3611328125,0.3376953125,0.3181640625,0.2986328125,0.2810546875,0.2654296875,0.2498046875,0.2380859375,0.2263671875,0.2146484375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.6%, 60.6% and 65.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.2%, 59.2% and 64.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.3%, 57.3% and 62.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.3%, 55.3% and 60.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.4%, 53.4% and 58.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.6%, 51.6% and 56.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.1%, 50.1% and 55.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.5%, 48.5% and 53.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.9%, 46.9% and 51.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.8%, 45.8% and 50.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.4%, 44.4% and 49.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.2%, 43.2% and 48.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.2%, 42.2% and 47.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.3%, 41.3% and 46.3% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.4060546875,0.3923828125,0.3728515625,0.3533203125,0.3337890625,0.3162109375,0.3005859375,0.2849609375,0.2693359375,0.2576171875,0.2439453125,0.2322265625,0.2224609375,0.2126953125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.4%, 62.9% and 67.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.7%, 57.4% and 62.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.3%, 54.6% and 59.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 52.3% and 57.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.0%, 50.0% and 55.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.0%, 48.0% and 53.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.0%, 46.1% and 51.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.1%, 44.1% and 49.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.3%, 42.5% and 47.5% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.3142578125,0.3005859375,0.2869140625,0.2732421875,0.2615234375,0.2498046875,0.2400390625,0.2302734375,0.2205078125,0.2126953125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 58.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 56.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 49.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 46.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.5857421875,0.5642578125,0.5271484375,0.4939453125,0.4626953125,0.4333984375,0.4080078125,0.3826171875,0.3591796875,0.3396484375,0.3201171875,0.3044921875,0.2888671875,0.2751953125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 44.3%, 64.3% and 69.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.0%, 62.0% and 67.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.6%, 59.6% and 64.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.7%, 57.7% and 62.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.7%, 55.7% and 60.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.8%, 53.8% and 58.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.2%, 52.2% and 57.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 50.6% and 55.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.3%, 49.3% and 54.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.9%, 47.9% and 52.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.7%, 46.7% and 51.7% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.4431640625,0.4197265625,0.3962890625,0.3767578125,0.3572265625,0.3376953125,0.3220703125,0.3064453125,0.2927734375,0.2791015625,0.2673828125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.2%, 64.4% and 69.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.8%, 61.7% and 66.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.5%, 58.9% and 63.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.3%, 56.6% and 61.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.1%, 54.3% and 59.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 52.3% and 57.3% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.3220703125,0.3083984375,0.2947265625,0.2830078125,0.2712890625,0.2615234375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 71.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 68.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 64.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 60.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 56.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 49.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 46.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 41.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.7146484375,0.6873046875,0.6423828125,0.6013671875,0.5642578125,0.5291015625,0.4958984375,0.4666015625,0.4392578125,0.4138671875,0.3923828125,0.3708984375,0.3533203125,0.3357421875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.9%, 62.9% and 67.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.6%, 60.6% and 65.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.7%, 58.7% and 63.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.9%, 56.9% and 61.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.1%, 55.1% and 60.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.6%, 53.6% and 58.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.2%, 52.2% and 57.2% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.4294921875,0.4060546875,0.3865234375,0.3689453125,0.3513671875,0.3357421875,0.3220703125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.2%, 64.4% and 69.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.0%, 62.1% and 67.1% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.3220703125,0.3103515625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"mode\":\"text\",\"name\":\"Label\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"\\\\u00a3200/mo\",\"\\\\u00a3300/mo\",\"\\\\u00a3400/mo\"],\"textposition\":\"bottom 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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 45.9% and 50.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.4%, 44.4% and 49.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.2%, 43.2% and 48.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.1%, 42.1% and 47.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.9%, 40.9% and 45.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 39.9% and 44.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.0%, 39.0% and 44.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.1%, 38.1% and 43.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 52.4% and 57.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.0%, 50.0% and 55.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.8%, 47.7% and 52.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 45.6% and 50.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 43.6% and 48.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 41.5% and 46.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 39.8% and 44.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.1%, 38.3% and 43.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.4%, 36.8% and 41.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 17.7%, 35.4% and 40.4% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.308642578125,0.301318359375,0.288134765625,0.274951171875,0.261767578125,0.250048828125,0.238330078125,0.228076171875,0.217822265625,0.207568359375,0.198779296875,0.191455078125,0.184130859375,0.176806640625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.446337890625,0.428759765625,0.400927734375,0.376025390625,0.351123046875,0.329150390625,0.310107421875,0.291064453125,0.273486328125,0.258837890625,0.244189453125,0.231005859375,0.219287109375,0.209033203125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.7%, 59.7% and 64.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.5%, 58.5% and 63.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.4%, 56.4% and 61.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.5%, 54.5% and 59.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.6%, 52.6% and 57.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.0%, 51.0% and 56.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.3%, 49.3% and 54.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 47.8% and 52.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.3%, 46.3% and 51.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.0%, 45.0% and 50.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.8%, 43.8% and 48.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 42.8% and 47.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 41.8% and 46.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 40.8% and 45.8% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.396533203125,0.384814453125,0.364306640625,0.345263671875,0.326220703125,0.310107421875,0.292529296875,0.277880859375,0.263232421875,0.250048828125,0.238330078125,0.228076171875,0.217822265625,0.207568359375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.9%, 61.7% and 66.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.4%, 58.8% and 63.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.1%, 56.2% and 61.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 53.5% and 58.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.6%, 51.2% and 56.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.6%, 49.1% and 54.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.4%, 46.8% and 51.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.5%, 45.0% and 50.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.6%, 43.3% and 48.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 41.5% and 46.5% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.308642578125,0.293994140625,0.280810546875,0.267626953125,0.255908203125,0.245654296875,0.233935546875,0.225146484375,0.216357421875,0.207568359375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 50.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 47.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 44.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 41.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.528369140625,0.507861328125,0.474169921875,0.444873046875,0.417041015625,0.390673828125,0.365771484375,0.343798828125,0.323291015625,0.305712890625,0.289599609375,0.273486328125,0.260302734375,0.247119140625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.4%, 62.4% and 67.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.0%, 58.0% and 63.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.0%, 56.0% and 61.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.2%, 54.2% and 59.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.3%, 52.3% and 57.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.7%, 50.7% and 55.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.3%, 49.3% and 54.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 47.8% and 52.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.5%, 46.5% and 51.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.3%, 45.3% and 50.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.3%, 44.3% and 49.3% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.424365234375,0.400927734375,0.380419921875,0.359912109375,0.342333984375,0.323291015625,0.307177734375,0.292529296875,0.277880859375,0.264697265625,0.252978515625,0.242724609375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.9%, 61.7% and 66.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.4%, 58.8% and 63.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.2%, 56.5% and 61.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.9%, 53.8% and 58.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 51.8% and 56.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.9%, 49.7% and 54.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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Allowance\"},\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\",\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"range\":[0,12570]},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Basic rate\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\",\"range\":[0,0.7]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Higher/add. rate increase ratio\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0,\"orientation\":\"h\",\"yanchor\":\"top\",\"y\":1.1},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 2: Feasible UBI policies for Northern Ireland\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 3, @@ -390,7 +444,6 @@ "from policyengine_core.charts import *\n", "from ubicenter.plotly import BLUE_COLOR_SEQUENCE\n", "\n", - "df = pd.read_csv(\"experiment_results.csv\")\n", "df = df[df[\"Feasible MTR\"] == \"Yes\"]\n", "fig = px.line(\n", " df,\n", @@ -421,7 +474,7 @@ " data[\"showlegend\"] = False\n", "\n", "fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " y=np.linspace(0.18, 0.35, 3),\n", + " y=np.linspace(0.15, 0.25, 3),\n", " x=[1_000] * 3,\n", " mode=\"text\",\n", " name=\"Label\",\n", @@ -449,16 +502,13 @@ ] }, "source": [ - "Figure 2 represents this exploratory exercise: each point in these lines is a feasible policy. For example, the topmost line shows the set of all policies that provide £400 per month to adults (£100 to children), and in which the higher and additional rates do not rise with the basic rate. It varies by the basic rate and personal allowance. The leftmost point in this line is a policy that abolishes the Personal Allowance (reduces it by the full £12,570), increases the basic rate by 9p, and doesn't increase the higher and additional rates.\n", - "\n", - "These lines are incomplete because they do not show policies that would increase marginal tax rates (MTRs) above 100%. For example, the lowest line ends at the policy that would raise the basic rate by 11p and reduce the personal allowance to £11,000. Extending that line (raising the Personal Allowance) would require increasing the basic rate to allow for a larger personal allowance. However, doing so would increase the MTR above 100% for people earning £100,000, as their personal allowance phases out.[^7]\n", + "Figure 2 represents this exploratory exercise: each point in these lines is a feasible policy. For example, the topmost line shows the set of all policies that provide £400 per month to adults (£100 to children), and in which the higher and additional rates do not rise with the basic rate. It varies by the basic rate and personal allowance. The leftmost point in this line is a policy that abolishes the Personal Allowance (reduces it by the full £12,570), increases the basic rate by 4p, and doesn't increase the higher and additional rates.\n", "\n", - "To avoid exceeding 100% MTRs, more generous UBI policies require broader-base tax reforms focused on the personal allowance and basic rate. Indeed, the £400 per month policy can only increase the higher and additional rates at double the basic rate if the personal allowance is reduced to £4,000. At this point, the basic rate would rise by 12p to 32p, the higher rate would rise by 24p to 64p, and the additional rate would rise by 32p to 80p; even a pound of personal allowance would create a MTR above 100% for people in the phase-out range.\n", + "These lines are incomplete because they do not show policies that would increase marginal tax rates (MTRs) above 100%. For example, the lowest line in the £400 per month group ends at the policy that would raise the basic rate by 11p and reduce the personal allowance to £6,000. Extending that line (raising the Personal Allowance) would require increasing the basic rate. However, doing so would increase the MTR above 100% for people earning £100,000, as their personal allowance phases out.[^7] To avoid exceeding 100% MTRs, more generous UBI policies require broader-base tax reforms focused on the personal allowance and basic rate.\n", "\n", - "We have listed all 126 policies represented in the chart in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17_xYwxvc119MrVLpo1gzGEVwL7uIM0Vn8-jaf6uN9s0/edit#gid=0). In the next section, we provide a deeper dive into three policies—one for each UBI level.\n", + "In the next section, we provide a deeper dive into three policies—one for each UBI level.\n", "\n", - "[^7]:\n", - " Specifically, the MTR increases by (higher rate x 1.5)% on the income between £100,000 and (£100,000 + personal allowance x 2). In the baseline, the higher rate is 40% and the personal allowance is £12,570, creating a 60% MTR on income between £100,000 and £125,140.\n" + "[^7]: Specifically, the MTR increases by (higher rate x 1.5)% on the income between £100,000 and (£100,000 + personal allowance x 2). In the baseline, the higher rate is 40% and the personal allowance is £12,570, creating a 60% MTR on income between £100,000 and £125,140.\n" ] }, { @@ -469,13 +519,13 @@ "\n", "We selected three of the 126 feasible policies to describe in more detail. These show the space of policies—not only in terms of UBI amount, but also the funding mechanisms. These three policies are shown in Table 1, the first column of which directs to the reform in PolicyEngine.\n", "\n", - "* *Model 1* provides £200 per adult per month, and funds it by reducing the personal allowance to £2,000 and increasing the basic rate by 1.5p and the higher and additional rates by 2.9p.\n", - "* *Model 2* provides £300 per adult per month, funded by abolishing the personal allowance and increasing all three tax rates by 4.6p.\n", - "* *Model 3* provides £400 per adult per month, again abolishing the personal allowance but increasing only the basic rate of income tax, by 10.3p.\n", + "- _Model 1_ provides £200 per adult per month, and funds it by reducing the personal allowance to £2,000 and increasing the basic rate by 1.8p and the higher and additional rates by 3.6p.\n", + "- _Model 2_ provides £300 per adult per month, funded by abolishing the personal allowance and increasing all three tax rates by 5.2p.\n", + "- _Model 3_ provides £400 per adult per month, again abolishing the personal allowance but increasing only the basic rate of income tax, by 11.5p.\n", "\n", - "Each of the reforms substantially lowers or eliminates the personal allowance, and increases the basic rate; the cost of the policies requires broad-based tax reform. Each of the reforms also cuts poverty by at least 37% and inequality by at least 8%, with the more generous programs producing stronger effects. A large majority of the population comes out ahead from each, as well.\n", + "Each of the reforms substantially lowers or eliminates the personal allowance, and increases the basic rate; the cost of the policies requires broad-based tax reform. Each of the reforms also cuts poverty by at least 36% and inequality by at least 9%, with the more generous programs producing stronger effects. A large majority of the population comes out ahead from each, as well.\n", "\n", - "Table 1: Three policies to fund a UBI in Northern Ireland" + "Table 1: Three policies to fund a UBI in Northern Ireland\n" ] }, { @@ -491,17 +541,18 @@ "| Monthly UBI amount for adults | £200 | £300 | £400 |\n", "| Monthly UBI amount for children | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 2.2p | 5.6p | 11.6p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 4.5p | 5.6p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 4.5p | 5.6p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £1.6bn | £2.5bn | £3.5bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £3.0bn | £4.4bn | £5.8bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £4.6bn | £6.9bn | £9.2bn |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -42.3% | -59.1% | -77.2% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -13.5% | -19.4% | -23.9% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 79% | 83% | 84% |\n", - "| Westminster contribution | 35.5% | 36.4% | 37.5% |\n", - "| PolicyEngine link | #32385 | #32386 | #32387 |" + "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 5.2p | 11.5p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.8bn | £1.3bn | £1.7bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £4.3bn | £5.7bn |\n", + "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £5.1bn | £6.8bn |\n", + "| Benefit outlay increase | £262m | £430m | £610m |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -44.6% | -58.9% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -14.0% | -17.7% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 66% | 70% | 70% |\n", + "| Westminster contribution | 24.8% | 24.7% | 24.8% |\n", + "| PolicyEngine link | #33122 | #33123 | #33124 |" ], "text/plain": [ "" @@ -513,60 +564,9 @@ } ], "source": [ - "pa = df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", - "ubi = df[\"Adult UBI\"]\n", - "ratio = df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "model_1_row = df[(pa == 2000) & (ubi == 200 * 12) & (ratio == 2)].iloc[0]\n", - "model_2_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 300 * 12) & (ratio == 1)].iloc[0]\n", - "model_3_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 400 * 12) & (ratio == 0)].iloc[0]\n", - "\n", - "for row in [model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row]:\n", - " # Re-solve with slow estimate\n", - " row[\"Basic rate addition\"] = solve_rates(\n", - " adult_ubi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " higher_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " additional_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " use_quick_estimate=False,\n", - " )\n", - " row[\"Higher rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - " row[\"Additional rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - " row[\"Higher rate\"] = row[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", - " row[\"Add. rate\"] = row[\"Additional rate addition\"] + 0.45\n", - " row[\"Basic rate\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] + 0.2\n", - "\n", - "model_1_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_1_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_1_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_1_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "model_2_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_2_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_2_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_2_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "model_3_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_3_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_3_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_3_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", + "model_1_policy = row_to_policy(model_1_row)\n", + "model_2_policy = row_to_policy(model_2_row)\n", + "model_3_policy = row_to_policy(model_3_row)\n", "\n", "model_1_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_1_policy)\n", "model_2_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_2_policy)\n", @@ -580,65 +580,92 @@ "for simulation in [baseline, model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]:\n", " filter_to_ni(simulation)\n", "\n", - "summary_table = pd.DataFrame()\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12]\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = [0, 0, 0]\n", - "summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = [model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Basic rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Higher rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Additional rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() / baseline.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() - 1\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() / baseline.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() - 1\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = [\n", - " (sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\") > baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\")).mean()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", + "def create_summary_table(model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row):\n", + " model_1_policy = row_to_policy(model_1_row)\n", + " model_2_policy = row_to_policy(model_2_row)\n", + " model_3_policy = row_to_policy(model_3_row)\n", "\n", - "summary_table\n", - "\n", - "# Formatting\n", - "\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"] / summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"]\n", - "summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x:.1%}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.0f}%\")\n", - "\n", - "policy_ids = [\n", - " reform.api_id\n", - " for reform in [model_1_reform, model_2_reform, model_3_reform]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"PolicyEngine link\"] = [\n", - " f\"#{policy_id}\" for policy_id in policy_ids\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table.index = [\"Model 1\", \"Model 2\", \"Model 3\"]\n", + " model_1_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_1_policy)\n", + " model_2_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_2_policy)\n", + " model_3_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_3_policy)\n", + "\n", + " baseline = Microsimulation()\n", + " model_1_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_1_reform)\n", + " model_2_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_2_reform)\n", + " model_3_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_3_reform)\n", + "\n", + " for simulation in [baseline, model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]:\n", + " filter_to_ni(simulation)\n", + "\n", + " summary_table = pd.DataFrame()\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12]\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = [0, 0, 0]\n", + " summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = [model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"]]\n", + " summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Basic rate addition\"]]\n", + " summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Higher rate addition\"]]\n", + " summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Additional rate addition\"]]\n", + " summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum()\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum()\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"basic_income\").sum()\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum()\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] - summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"]\n", + " summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() / baseline.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() - 1\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = [\n", + " sim.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() / baseline.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() - 1\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = [\n", + " (sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\") > baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\")).mean()\n", + " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", + " ]\n", + "\n", + " summary_table\n", + "\n", + " # Formatting\n", + "\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"] / summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"]\n", + " summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x:.1%}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e6:,.0f}m\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"] = summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.0f}%\")\n", + "\n", + " policy_ids = [\n", + " reform.api_id\n", + " for reform in [model_1_reform, model_2_reform, model_3_reform]\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table[\"PolicyEngine link\"] = [\n", + " f\"#{policy_id}\" for policy_id in policy_ids\n", + " ]\n", + " summary_table.index = [\"Model 1\", \"Model 2\", \"Model 3\"]\n", + "\n", + " return summary_table\n", + "\n", + "summary_table = create_summary_table(model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row)\n", "\n", "from IPython.display import Markdown\n", "\n", @@ -651,8 +678,7 @@ "source": [ "Digging into the poverty impacts reveals similarly sized impacts on child poverty, with the most generous plan halving it.[^8] [Many studies find](child-allowance.ubicenter.org/empirical) that child poverty causes deleterious developmental and lifelong outcomes.\n", "\n", - "[^8]:\n", - " The impacts on deep poverty (the population share with net income below half the poverty threshold) are similar, though we do not include them here as the Family Resources Survey has too few records near the deep poverty line to produce reliable results.\n" + "[^8]: The impacts on deep poverty (the population share with net income below half the poverty threshold) are similar, though we do not include them here as the Family Resources Survey has too few records near the deep poverty line to produce reliable results.\n" ] }, { @@ -667,7 +693,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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group\"}},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Poverty rate change\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"barmode\":\"group\",\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 3: Poverty rate change by age group\"},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 5, @@ -680,6 +706,9 @@ "import plotly.express as px\n", "from policyengine_core.charts import BLUE_COLOUR_SCALE\n", "\n", + "for simulation in [baseline, model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]:\n", + " filter_to_ni(simulation)\n", + "\n", "dfs = []\n", "for sim, policy_name in zip([model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim], [\"£200/month\", \"£300/month\", \"£400/month\"]):\n", " for group, name in zip([\"is_child\", \"is_WA_adult\", \"is_SP_age\", \"people\"], [\"Child\", \"Working-age\", \"Senior\", \"All\"]):\n", @@ -732,7 +761,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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change\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"barmode\":\"group\",\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 4: Inequality impact by metric and UBI policy\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 6, @@ -809,15 +838,13 @@ "source": [ "The next sections provide more detailed societal-level impacts on each of the three policies.\n", "\n", + "## [£200 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=33122&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", - "## [£200 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=31959&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", - "\n", - "_£200 per month for adults, funded by lowering the personal allowance to £2,000, increasing the basic rate by 1.5p, and increasing the higher and additional rates by 2.9p_\n", + "_£200 per month for adults, funded by lowering the personal allowance to £2,000, increasing the basic rate by 1.8p, and increasing the higher and additional rates by 3.6p_\n", "\n", - "The smallest policy in our analysis reduces the allowance to £2,000 per year, raises the basic rate to 21.5%, the higher rate to 42.9% and the additional rate to 47.9%. 71% of the population sees their income rise as a result of the policy.\n", + "The smallest policy in our analysis reduces the allowance to £2,000 per year, raises the basic rate to 21.8%, the higher rate to 43.6% and the additional rate to 48.6%. 66% of the population sees their income rise as a result of the policy.\n", "\n", - "The policy is highly progressive: the lowest income decile sees an increase of 15% to its aggregate disposable income.\n", - "\n" + "The policy is highly progressive: the lowest income decile sees an increase of 15% to its aggregate disposable income.\n" ] }, { @@ -832,7 +859,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - 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But gains broadly correlate with income: in the first decile, all individuals see their household net income rise; in the top decile, most see their income fall. Basic income schemes often create large amounts of low-income households who see a loss, if the policy abolishes or removes elements of the existing welfare system. This and other policies considered in this report avoid creating such low-income losses by not reforming benefit programs." + "This does not mean, however, that everyone within a beneficiary decile comes out ahead or vice-versa. But gains broadly correlate with income: in the first decile, all individuals see their household net income rise; in the top decile, most see their income fall. Basic income schemes often create large amounts of low-income households who see a loss, if the policy abolishes or removes elements of the existing welfare system. 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This includes a fall of 41% for working-age poverty and by 43% for child poverty. \n", + "Total absolute poverty falls by 36%. This includes a fall of 40% for working-age poverty and by 42% for child poverty.\n", "\n", + "## [£300 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=33123&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", - "## [£300 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=31960&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", + "_£300 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing all tax rates by 5.2p_\n", "\n", - "_£300 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing all tax rates by 4.6p_\n", + "Northern Ireland could increase the basic income level from £200 to £300 by eliminating the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 25.2%, the higher rate to 45.2%, and the additional rate to 49.2%. One counter-intuitive result of this is that the top marginal income tax rate actually falls slightly: in the current system, individuals who earn over £100,000 and less than £125,140 pay a 63.25% marginal tax rate.[^9] Under this policy, the top marginal income tax rate becomes 49.2%, as the personal allowance no longer exists to be phased out.\n", "\n", - "Northern Ireland could increase the basic income level from £200 to £300 by eliminating the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 24.6%, the higher rate to 44.6%, and the additional rate to 49.6%. One counter-intuitive result of this is that the top marginal income tax rate actually falls slightly: in the current system, individuals who earn over £100,000 and less than £125,140 pay a 63.25% marginal tax rate.[^9] Under this policy, the top marginal income tax rate becomes 49.6%, as the personal allowance no longer exists to be phased out.\n", + "With a larger UBI comes more progressive outcomes: the lowest income decile sees its income increase by over 23%, and the top decile income falls by around 2%.\n", "\n", - "With a larger UBI comes more progressive outcomes: the lowest income decile sees its income increase by over 23%, and the top decile income falls by around half a percent.\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "[^9]:\n", - " This is because of the personal allowance phase-out, which creates a 60% marginal rate (40% * 1.5), in addition to the National Insurance marginal rate of (as of the time of writing) 3.25%.\n" + "[^9]: This is because of the personal allowance phase-out, which creates a 60% marginal rate (40% \\* 1.5), in addition to the National Insurance marginal rate of (as of the time of writing) 3.25%.\n" ] }, { @@ -924,7 +948,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"marker\":{\"color\":[\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\"]},\"text\":[\"+27.4%\",\"+15.9%\",\"+13.7%\",\"+14.1%\",\"+13.2%\",\"+8.0%\",\"+9.7%\",\"+7.0%\",\"+3.8%\",\"+0.0%\"],\"textangle\":0,\"x\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"y\":[0.2742590187732281,0.15859954242510743,0.13744104593766154,0.14057618122977497,0.1317373357416134,0.08022712913907448,0.09666718066463872,0.07047296416188979,0.037927203167427315,0.0004605933944768345],\"type\":\"bar\"}],\"layout\":{\"uniformtext\":{\"minsize\":8,\"mode\":\"hide\"},\"xaxis\":{\"tickvals\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Income decile\"}},\"yaxis\":{\"tickformat\":\"+,.0%\",\"title\":{\"text\":\"Relative 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More households lose income, and more shift from losing under 5% to over 5%. Countering this, a larger proportion of individuals are in households with strong (over 5%) increases in income: from 49% (for the £200 per month policy) to 56%.\n" + "A similar pattern holds for the distribution of outcomes within each decile, but the results are more pronounced. More households lose income, and more shift from losing under 5% to over 5%. Countering this, a larger proportion of individuals are in households with strong (over 5%) increases in income: from 50% (for the £200 per month policy) to 56%.\n" ] }, { @@ -962,7 +986,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hoverinfo\":\"none\",\"legendgroup\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"marker\":{\"color\":\"#2C6496\",\"line\":{\"width\":0}},\"name\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"offsetgroup\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"orientation\":\"h\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"75%\"],\"textangle\":0,\"textposition\":\"inside\",\"x\":[0.7463686437402369],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[\"All\"],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"bar\",\"width\":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9]},{\"hoverinfo\":\"none\",\"legendgroup\":\"Gain less than 5%\",\"marker\":{\"color\":\"#D8E6F3\",\"line\":{\"width\":0}},\"name\":\"Gain less than 5%\",\"offsetgroup\":\"Gain less than 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Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"},\"legend\":{\"orientation\":\"h\",\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"y\":-0.3},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 6: Outcome distribution by income decile under a \\\\u00a3300 per month UBI\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 10, @@ -990,11 +1014,11 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "## [£400 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=31961&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", + "## [£400 per month option](http://policyengine.org/uk/policy?reform=33124&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", - "_£400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing the basic rate by 10.3p_\n", + "_£400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing the basic rate by 11.5p_\n", "\n", - "The most generous basic income policy considered is £400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 30.3%, creating a non-progressive nominal tax schedule (though note that the full tax-benefit schedule is already non-progressive). With a total redistribution of £5.4bn in via tax revenues and £7.3bn out via benefit outlays (including the Westminster-funded portion), 74% of individuals see an increase in disposable income. The bottom decile sees an increase of 32% in disposable income, and the top two deciles both fall by around 1%.\n" + "The most generous basic income policy considered is £400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 31.5%, creating a non-progressive nominal tax schedule (though note that the full tax-benefit schedule is already non-progressive). With a total redistribution of £5.7bn in via tax revenues and £6.8bn out via benefit outlays (including the Westminster-funded portion), 70% of individuals see an increase in disposable income. The bottom decile sees an increase of 32% in disposable income, and the top two deciles both fall by around a percentage point.\n" ] }, { @@ -1009,7 +1033,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"marker\":{\"color\":[\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\"]},\"text\":[\"+37.8%\",\"+21.7%\",\"+18.7%\",\"+19.4%\",\"+17.7%\",\"+10.8%\",\"+12.4%\",\"+8.5%\",\"+3.8%\",\"+2.4%\"],\"textangle\":0,\"x\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"y\":[0.3781518702452096,0.21672609430872258,0.18699572198264947,0.19362337246881436,0.1768741437323512,0.10804052933190211,0.1236446461829444,0.08496857408980728,0.03815887786997211,0.02400704552725167],\"type\":\"bar\"}],\"layout\":{\"uniformtext\":{\"minsize\":8,\"mode\":\"hide\"},\"xaxis\":{\"tickvals\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Income decile\"}},\"yaxis\":{\"tickformat\":\"+,.0%\",\"title\":{\"text\":\"Relative 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To show this, we continue examining our three policies through the lenses of three example households: a single adult, a married couple with two children, and a pensioner couple.\n", "\n", - "\n", "### Net income\n", "\n", "A single adult with no children is a net beneficiary under all three policies only until they reach £21,000 in employment income.[^10] Before this break-even point, the policy that most benefits them is the £400 per month UBI. After that threshold, their net income rises more slowly than it would have under the baseline policy, and their policy preference would flip: The £400 and £300 per month UBI policies (which have higher tax increases) are worse for their net income. However, this preference only lasts until after the personal allowance phase-out at £125,140: the £400 per month UBI quickly becomes the best policy due to its 0-point changes to the higher and additional rates of income tax.\n", "\n", - "[^10]:\n", - " We vary the employment income of only one earner, holding the other (if they exist) at zero.\n" + "[^10]: We vary the employment income of only one earner, holding the other (if they exist) at zero.\n" ] }, { @@ -1226,7 +1247,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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All UBI schemes leave them better off or roughly equal at virtually any earnings level, starting with a bonus over £5,000 which decreases non-monotonically to a minimum of £100." + "For a married couple with two children, one of whom has earnings, the net income landscape is more generous. All UBI schemes leave them better off or roughly equal at virtually any earnings level, starting with a bonus over £5,000 which decreases non-monotonically.\n" ] }, { @@ -1293,7 +1314,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to annual net income\"},\"tickmode\":\"array\",\"tickvals\":[-20000,-15000,-10000,-5000,0,5000,10000,15000,20000],\"ticktext\":[\"-\\\\u00a320,000\",\"-\\\\u00a315,000\",\"-\\\\u00a310,000\",\"-\\\\u00a35,000\",\"\\\\u00a30\",\"+\\\\u00a35,000\",\"+\\\\u00a310,000\",\"+\\\\u00a315,000\",\"+\\\\u00a320,000\"],\"range\":[-25000,25000]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 12: Change to annual net income by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 15, @@ -1309,11 +1330,9 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "For a pensioner couple, one of whom has income,[^11] the net impact of the basic income policies varies significantly with income, with regions of high gains and high losses. For households with income under £100,000, all of the policies leave them better off. This is primarily because Pension Credit insulates pensioners from Income Tax rises. The Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit tops up pensioner incomes to a minimum level, and the income definition used means that pensioners are guaranteed to be better off: it deducts income tax payments (meaning that it shields from the tax rises in each policy) and does not include basic income payments. However, after pensioner income rises out of the range in which Guarantee Credit operates (around £12,500), the gains from the UBI policies diminish.\n", - "\n", + "For a pensioner couple, one of whom has income,[^11] the net impact of the basic income policies varies significantly with income. For households with income under £100,000, all of the policies leave them significantly better off. This is primarily because Pension Credit compensates pensioners for any Income Tax rises. The Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit tops up pensioner incomes to a minimum level, and the post-tax income definition used means that pensioners are guaranteed to be better off: it deducts income tax payments (meaning that it shields from the broad-based tax rises in each policy) and does not include basic income payments. However, after pensioner income rises out of the range in which Guarantee Credit operates (around £12,500), the gains from the UBI policies diminish.\n", "\n", - "[^11]:\n", - " We plot based on earnings, but net income responds similarly to earnings as State Pension." + "[^11]: We plot based on earnings, but net income responds similarly to earnings as State Pension.\n" ] }, { @@ -1328,7 +1347,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to annual net income\"},\"tickmode\":\"array\",\"tickvals\":[-20000,-15000,-10000,-5000,0,5000,10000,15000,20000],\"ticktext\":[\"-\\\\u00a320,000\",\"-\\\\u00a315,000\",\"-\\\\u00a310,000\",\"-\\\\u00a35,000\",\"\\\\u00a30\",\"+\\\\u00a35,000\",\"+\\\\u00a310,000\",\"+\\\\u00a315,000\",\"+\\\\u00a320,000\"],\"range\":[-25000,25000]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 13: Change to annual net income by UBI policy and income (pensioner couple, no children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 16, @@ -1346,22 +1365,19 @@ "source": [ "The appendix contains charts comparing the baseline and reform net incomes as values rather than differences.\n", "\n", - "\n", "### Marginal tax rates\n", "\n", "The marginal tax rate (MTR) for a given pound of earnings is defined as the percentage which does not contribute to increasing net income, either by going to taxation instead or by causing a reduction in benefit entitlement. For example, if an earner faces a 20% MTR from taxes and a 15% MTR from benefits, their total MTR is 35% and they take home 65p for each additional £1 of earnings.\n", "\n", - "Figure 14 shows the MTR associated with each earnings level for a married couple with two children:[^12] the higher the line at a given income, the lower the incentive to work. Where the MTR is 100%, this means that earning an additional pound will make no difference to net income. Where the MTR is above 100%, earning additional income at the margin will decrease the household’s net income. The interaction of the policies is complex: at different points, some UBI policies would reduce MTRs; at others, they would increase them. Broadly, MTRs rise across the earnings spectrum, but decrease in some specific areas. \n", + "Figure 14 shows the MTR associated with each earnings level for a married couple with two children:[^12] the higher the line at a given income, the lower the incentive to work. Where the MTR is 100%, this means that earning an additional pound will make no difference to net income. Where the MTR is above 100%, earning additional income at the margin will decrease the household’s net income. The interaction of the policies is complex: at different points, some UBI policies would reduce MTRs; at others, they would increase them. Broadly, MTRs rise across the earnings spectrum, but decrease in some specific areas.\n", "\n", "The first of these areas is at £50,270, the higher rate threshold. Under current law, the Marriage Allowance is a tax allowance that reduces tax liability by enabling couples to transfer some (10%) of their personal allowance between them. However, it is only available to couples with one earner under the higher rate threshold, which leads to a sudden increase in tax liability at that income level (creating an MTR over 100%, a ‘cliff’). All UBI policies reduce this cliff because they reduce or eliminate the personal allowance.\n", "\n", "The second is at £100,000. Under baseline policy, the personal allowance is phased out after this point at a rate of 50p per pound of income over the threshold. With no personal allowance, there is nothing to phase out, so the £300 per month and £400 per month UBI policies both eliminate this, reducing the MTR by 20pp.\n", "\n", - "Overall, all policies substantially raise marginal tax rates in the main, and therefore disincentivise work relative to the status quo, while removing some extreme disincentives to work embedded in certain parts of the current tax code. \n", - "\n", + "Overall, all policies substantially raise marginal tax rates in the main, and therefore disincentivise work relative to the status quo, while removing some extreme disincentives to work embedded in certain parts of the current tax code.\n", "\n", - "[^12]:\n", - " We focus on the MTR for a married couple with two children because the differences between baseline and reform don't depend much on household structure. See the appendix for more MTR charts for different household archetypes." + "[^12]: We focus on the MTR for a married couple with two children because the differences between baseline and reform don't depend much on household structure. See the appendix for more MTR charts for different household archetypes.\n" ] }, { @@ -1502,7 +1518,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=Baseline
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marginal wages. For example, if a policy increases the MTR from 35% to 40%, that lowers the effective marginal wage from 65% to 60%, or by about 8%. Here we see that effective marginal wages are generally lower under the UBI reforms, except for the regions described above." + "Another way of framing these effects is as the change to effective marginal wages. For example, if a policy increases the MTR from 35% to 40%, that lowers the effective marginal wage from 65% to 60%, or by about 8%. Here we see that effective marginal wages are generally lower under the UBI reforms, except for the regions described above.\n" ] }, { @@ -1584,7 +1600,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to effective marginal wage\"},\"tickformat\":\"+.0%\",\"range\":[-1,1]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 15: Change to effective marginal wage by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 20, @@ -1663,7 +1679,7 @@ "\n", "We publish this dataset's accuracy in our [documentation page on validation](https://policyengine.github.io/openfisca-uk//model/validation.html), which shows that their model deviates from administrative totals less than UKMOD does (only UKMOD publishes their totals amongst other UK microsimulation models).\n", "\n", - "**Table 2: Error rates for selected Northern Ireland aggregates based on the original and PolicyEngine-enhanced 2019/20 Family Resources Survey**" + "**Table 2: Error rates for selected Northern Ireland aggregates based on the original and PolicyEngine-enhanced 2019/20 Family Resources Survey**\n" ] }, { @@ -1731,355 +1747,87 @@ "source": [ "## Appendix B: Previous UBI models\n", "\n", - "A previous version of this report included children below the age of 16 in the UBI policy. Table 3 shows the results of that approach, for each of the equivalent UBI models in our chosen triplet." + "A previous version of this report included children below the age of 16 in the UBI policy, giving them half the adult amount. Table 3 shows the results of that approach: for each of the three models above, we include a version which used the same feasibility criteria including children.\n", + "\n", + "Table 3: Three policies to fund a UBI in Northern Ireland, including children\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "name": "stderr", + "output_type": "stream", + "text": [ + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:15<00:00, 5.38s/it]\n" + ] + } + ], + "source": [ + "df_child_space = create_policy_space(child_min_age=0)\n", + "child_model_1_row, child_model_2_row, child_model_3_row = extract_three_model_rows(df_child_space, child_min_age=0)\n", + "child_summary_table = create_summary_table(child_model_1_row, child_model_2_row, child_model_3_row)" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 23, + "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/markdown": [ - "| | Model 1 (+ children) | Model 2 (+ children) | Model 3 (+ children) |\n", - "|:--------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for adults | £200 | £300 | £400 |\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for children | £100 | £150 | £200 |\n", - "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 3.0p | 6.7p | 13.6p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 6.1p | 6.7p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 6.1p | 6.7p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £1.0bn | £1.5bn | £2.1bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £3.2bn | £4.7bn | £6.3bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £4.1bn | £6.3bn | £8.4bn |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -40.2% | -45.6% | -69.5% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -12.4% | -17.9% | -22.1% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 74% | 75% | 74% |\n", - "| Westminster contribution | 23.2% | 24.5% | 25.2% |\n", - "| PolicyEngine link | #32304 | #32305 | #32306 |" + "| | Model 1 | Model 1c | Model 2 | Model 2c | Model 3 | Model 3c |\n", + "|:--------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount for adults | £200 | £200 | £300 | £300 | £400 | £400 |\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount for children | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", + "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £2,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", + "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 3.0p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 11.5p | 14.4p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.9p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.9p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.8bn | £1.0bn | £1.3bn | £1.4bn | £1.7bn | £1.9bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £3.2bn | £4.3bn | £4.8bn | £5.7bn | £6.5bn |\n", + "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £3.9bn | £5.1bn | £5.8bn | £6.8bn | £7.7bn |\n", + "| Benefit outlay increase | £262m | £283m | £430m | £482m | £610m | £703m |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -40.2% | -44.6% | -45.6% | -58.9% | -68.1% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -12.4% | -14.0% | -18.1% | -17.7% | -22.3% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 66% | 74% | 70% | 74% | 70% | 71% |\n", + "| Westminster contribution | 24.8% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 25.1% | 24.8% | 25.1% |\n", + "| PolicyEngine link | #33122 | #33193 | #33123 | #33194 | #33124 | #33195 |" ], "text/plain": [ "" ] }, - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ - "from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation\n", - "import numpy as np\n", - "import pandas as pd\n", - "import plotly.express as px\n", - "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n", - "from scipy.optimize import bisect\n", - "from policyengine_core.charts import format_fig\n", - "from policyengine_core.model_api import *\n", - "import pandas as pd\n", - "# Silence warnings\n", - "import warnings\n", - "warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")\n", - "import plotly.io as pio\n", - "pio.renderers.default = \"notebook\"\n", - "\n", - "def filter_to_ni(sim: Microsimulation):\n", - " weights = sim.calculate(\"household_weight\")\n", - " country = sim.calculate(\"country\")\n", - " sim.set_input(\"household_weight\", 2023, np.where(country == \"NORTHERN_IRELAND\", weights, 0))\n", - "\n", - "baseline = Microsimulation()\n", - "filter_to_ni(baseline)\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "def get_ubi_cost(\n", - " adult_amount: float = 400 * 12,\n", - " child_amount: float = 200 * 12,\n", - " senior_amount: float = 100 * 12,\n", - "):\n", - " in_ni = baseline.calculate(\"country\", map_to=\"person\") == \"NORTHERN_IRELAND\"\n", - " age = baseline.calculate(\"age\")\n", - " retired = baseline.calculate(\"is_SP_age\")\n", - " num_adults = ((age >= 16) * (~retired))[in_ni].sum()\n", - " num_children = (age < 16)[in_ni].sum()\n", - " num_seniors = (retired)[in_ni].sum()\n", - " return adult_amount * num_adults + child_amount * num_children + senior_amount * num_seniors\n", - "\n", - "from policyengine_uk.model_api import *\n", - "\n", - "def ubi_ni_reform(\n", - " personal_allowance: float = 12_570,\n", - " higher_rate_threshold: float = 50_270,\n", - " basic_rate: float = 0.2,\n", - " higher_rate: float = 0.4,\n", - " additional_rate: float = 0.45,\n", - " child_bi: float = 0,\n", - " adult_bi: float = 0,\n", - " senior_bi: float = 0,\n", - "\n", - ") -> Reform:\n", - " TIME_PERIOD = \"year:2023:10\"\n", - " return Reform.from_dict({\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: basic_rate },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: higher_rate },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: additional_rate },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(higher_rate_threshold) },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(personal_allowance) },\n", - " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.child\": { TIME_PERIOD: child_bi / 52 },\n", - " # \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.child_min_age\": { TIME_PERIOD: 16 },\n", - " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.working_age\": { TIME_PERIOD: adult_bi / 52 },\n", - " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.senior\": { TIME_PERIOD: senior_bi / 52 },\n", - " }, country_id=\"uk\")\n", - "\n", - "def get_revenue_slow_estimate(\n", - " personal_allowance: float,\n", - " basic_rate_addition: float,\n", - " higher_rate_addition: float,\n", - " additional_rate_addition: float,\n", - ") -> float:\n", - " baseline = Microsimulation()\n", - " reformed = Microsimulation(\n", - " reform=ubi_ni_reform(\n", - " personal_allowance=personal_allowance,\n", - " higher_rate_threshold = 50_270 + 12_570 - personal_allowance,\n", - " basic_rate=0.2 + basic_rate_addition,\n", - " higher_rate=0.4 + higher_rate_addition,\n", - " additional_rate=0.45 + additional_rate_addition,\n", - " child_bi=0,\n", - " adult_bi=0,\n", - " senior_bi=0,\n", - " )\n", - " )\n", - " filter_to_ni(baseline)\n", - " filter_to_ni(reformed)\n", - " return baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum() - reformed.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum()\n", - "\n", - "def get_revenue_quick_estimate(\n", - " personal_allowance: float,\n", - " basic_rate_addition: float,\n", - " higher_rate_addition: float,\n", - " additional_rate_addition: float,\n", - ") -> float:\n", - " income = baseline.calc(\"adjusted_net_income\")\n", - " weight = income.weights\n", - " add_rate_income = np.maximum(0, income - 125_140)\n", - " higher_rate_income = np.maximum(0, income - 50_270) - add_rate_income\n", - " basic_rate_income_b = np.maximum(0, income - higher_rate_income - add_rate_income - 12_570)\n", - " basic_rate_income_r = np.maximum(0, income - higher_rate_income - add_rate_income - personal_allowance)\n", - " basic_rate_increased_tax = (\n", - " basic_rate_income_r * (0.2 + basic_rate_addition)\n", - " - basic_rate_income_b * 0.2\n", - " )\n", - " higher_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"higher_rate_earned_income\").values * higher_rate_addition\n", - " additional_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"add_rate_earned_income\").values * additional_rate_addition\n", - " increased_tax = basic_rate_increased_tax + higher_rate_increased_tax + additional_rate_increased_tax\n", - " return (increased_tax * weight).sum() * 0.91 # Rough benefit response ratio\n", - "\n", - "def solve_rates(\n", - " adult_ubi: float = 0,\n", - " personal_allowance: float = 12_570,\n", - " higher_rate_ratio: float = 1,\n", - " additional_rate_ratio: float = 1,\n", - "):\n", - " def adjusted_reform_cost(\n", - " basic_rate_addition: float = 0,\n", - " ) -> float:\n", - " adjusted_revenue = get_revenue_quick_estimate(personal_allowance, basic_rate_addition, basic_rate_addition * higher_rate_ratio, basic_rate_addition * additional_rate_ratio)\n", - " ubi_cost = get_ubi_cost(\n", - " adult_ubi, \n", - " adult_ubi * 0.5,\n", - " adult_ubi\n", - " )\n", - " return ubi_cost * 0.75 - adjusted_revenue # Assume 25% of the UBI is paid for by Westminster\n", - " \n", - " return bisect(adjusted_reform_cost, -1, 1, xtol=1e-3)\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "headline_ubi_rates = []\n", - "personal_allowances = []\n", - "basic_rate_additions = []\n", - "higher_add_addition_ratios = []\n", - "\n", - "for pa in [12_570] + list(range(12_000, -1000, -1000)):\n", - " for ubi_rate in list([200 * 12, 300 * 12, 400 * 12]):\n", - " for higher_add_ratio in list((0, 1, 2)):\n", - " headline_ubi_rates.append(ubi_rate)\n", - " personal_allowances.append(pa)\n", - " basic_rate_additions.append(solve_rates(adult_ubi=ubi_rate, personal_allowance=pa, higher_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio, additional_rate_ratio=higher_add_ratio))\n", - " higher_add_addition_ratios.append(higher_add_ratio)\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", - " \"Adult UBI\": headline_ubi_rates,\n", - " \"Personal Allowance\": personal_allowances,\n", - " \"Basic rate addition\": basic_rate_additions,\n", - " \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\": higher_add_addition_ratios,\n", - "})\n", - "df[\"Personal Allowance reduction\"] = 12_570 - df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", - "df[\"Higher rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "df[\"Basic rate addition (x100)\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * 100\n", - "df[\"Additional rate addition\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] * df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "df[\"UBI/Increase ratio combination\"] = [\n", - " f\"{higher_add_ratio:.0%}\" + \" \" * (ubi // 100)\n", - " for ubi, higher_add_ratio in zip(\n", - " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " )\n", - "]\n", - "df[\"Label\"] = [\n", - " f\"A £{ubi:,.0f} UBI and £{pa:,.0f} Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to {0.2 + basic_rate_addition:.1%}, {0.4 + higher_rate_addition:.1%} and {0.45 + additional_rate_addition:.1%} respectively.\"\n", - " for ubi, pa, basic_rate_addition, higher_rate_addition, additional_rate_addition in zip(\n", - " df[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " df[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " df[\"Basic rate addition\"],\n", - " df[\"Higher rate addition\"],\n", - " df[\"Additional rate addition\"],\n", - " )\n", - "]\n", + "combined_table = pd.concat([\n", + " summary_table,\n", + " child_summary_table,\n", + "]).T\n", "\n", - "df = df.sort_values([\"Adult UBI\", \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"])\n", - "\n", - "df[\"Basic rate\"] = df[\"Basic rate addition\"] + 0.2\n", - "df[\"Higher rate\"] = df[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", - "df[\"Add. rate\"] = df[\"Additional rate addition\"] + 0.45\n", - "\n", - "df[[\n", - " \"Adult UBI\",\n", - " \"Personal Allowance\",\n", - " \"Basic rate addition\",\n", - " \"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\",\n", - "]].to_csv(\"table.csv\", index=False)\n", - "df[\"Feasible MTR\"] = np.where(\n", - " # £150k+ MTR under 100%\n", - " (df[\"Add. rate\"] + 0.0325 < 1)\n", - " # £100k-150k MTR under 100%\n", - " & (df[\"Higher rate\"] * (\n", - " np.where(df[\"Personal Allowance\"] > 0, 1.5, 1)\n", - " ) + 0.0325 < 1),\n", - " \"Yes\",\n", - " \"No\",\n", - " )\n", - "\n", - "df.to_csv(\"experiment_results.csv\")\n", - "\n", - "pa = df[\"Personal Allowance\"]\n", - "ubi = df[\"Adult UBI\"]\n", - "ratio = df[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", - "model_1_row = df[(pa == 2000) & (ubi == 200 * 12) & (ratio == 2)].iloc[0]\n", - "model_2_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 300 * 12) & (ratio == 1)].iloc[0]\n", - "model_3_row = df[(pa == 0) & (ubi == 400 * 12) & (ratio == 0)].iloc[0]\n", - "\n", - "model_1_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_1_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_1_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_1_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "model_2_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_2_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_2_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_2_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "model_3_policy = dict(\n", - " basic_rate=model_3_row[\"Basic rate\"],\n", - " higher_rate=model_3_row[\"Higher rate\"],\n", - " additional_rate=model_3_row[\"Add. rate\"],\n", - " personal_allowance=model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " adult_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " higher_rate_threshold=50_270. - model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " child_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] * 0.5,\n", - " senior_bi=model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - ")\n", - "\n", - "model_1_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_1_policy)\n", - "model_2_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_2_policy)\n", - "model_3_reform = ubi_ni_reform(**model_3_policy)\n", - "\n", - "baseline = Microsimulation()\n", - "model_1_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_1_reform)\n", - "model_2_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_2_reform)\n", - "model_3_sim = Microsimulation(reform=model_3_reform)\n", + "# Intersperse the columns (1, 4, 2, 5, 3, 6)\n", "\n", - "for simulation in [baseline, model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]:\n", - " filter_to_ni(simulation)\n", + "combined_table = combined_table.iloc[:, [0, 3, 1, 4, 2, 5]]\n", "\n", - "summary_table_original = summary_table.copy()\n", - "\n", - "summary_table = pd.DataFrame()\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12]\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12 * 0.5, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12 * 0.5, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12 * 0.5]\n", - "summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = [model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Basic rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Higher rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Additional rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Additional rate addition\"]]\n", - "summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"income_tax\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum() - baseline.calculate(\"household_benefits\").sum()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() / baseline.calculate(\"in_poverty\", map_to=\"person\").sum() - 1\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = [\n", - " sim.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() / baseline.calculate(\"equiv_household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\").gini() - 1\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = [\n", - " (sim.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\") > baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", map_to=\"person\")).mean()\n", - " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", - "]\n", + "# Rename index (Model 1, Model 1(C), Model 2, Model 2(C), Model 3, Model 3(C))\n", "\n", - "summary_table\n", - "\n", - "# Formatting\n", - "\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"] / summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"]\n", - "summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x:.1%}\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", - "summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"] = summary_table[\"Percent of population gaining\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.0f}%\")\n", - "\n", - "policy_ids = [\n", - " reform.api_id\n", - " for reform in [model_1_reform, model_2_reform, model_3_reform]\n", - "]\n", - "summary_table[\"PolicyEngine link\"] = [\n", - " f\"#{policy_id}\" for policy_id in policy_ids\n", + "combined_table.columns = [\n", + " \"Model 1\",\n", + " \"Model 1c\",\n", + " \"Model 2\",\n", + " \"Model 2c\",\n", + " \"Model 3\",\n", + " \"Model 3c\",\n", "]\n", - "summary_table.index = [\"Model 1 (+ children)\", \"Model 2 (+ children)\", \"Model 3 (+ children)\"]\n", "\n", - "from IPython.display import Markdown\n", - "\n", - "Markdown(summary_table.T.to_markdown())" + "Markdown(combined_table.to_markdown())" ] } ], diff --git a/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx b/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx index 8ae12fb8f..6a89ec2d6 100644 --- a/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx +++ b/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx @@ -695,6 +695,15 @@ let posts = [ image: "two_child_limit.png", authors: ["nikhil-woodruff"], }, + { + title: "Northern Ireland UBI feasibility study", + description: "Feasible UBI policies for Northern Ireland.", + date: "2023-10-27 16:00:00", + filename: "northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb", + tags: ["uk"], + image: "two_child_limit.png", + authors: ["nikhil-woodruff"], + }, ].sort((a, b) => (a.date < b.date ? 1 : -1)); for (let post of posts) { From 8ec11353b3493e5a2b4989e1d2434d406841951c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nikhil Woodruff <35577657+nikhilwoodruff@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 1 Nov 2023 07:20:54 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] Add small fixes --- src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb | 379 ++++++++++--------- src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx | 10 +- 2 files changed, 209 insertions(+), 180 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb index 564dc061c..53d4214d3 100644 --- a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb +++ b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb @@ -8,28 +8,32 @@ ] }, "source": [ - "# Executive summary\n", + "*We thank the UBI Lab Northern Ireland for supporting this project and suggesting the constraints of the policy designs.*\n", "\n", - "Northern Ireland is both unusually egalitarian and unusually supportive of universal basic income, the idea to provide everyone in society a regular unconditional payment. But so far, no study has quantified how the nation might enact a universal basic income (UBI) through tax and benefit reforms.\n", + "## Executive summary\n", "\n", - "Following proposals by the UBI Lab Northern Ireland, we fill that gap. This paper begins with a description of Northern Ireland's economy, then identifies over 120 tax-funded UBI policies, and zooms in on three in particular. These policies cover the space of UBI amounts (£200 to £400 per adult, per month) and tax reforms (lowering the personal allowance and increasing tax rates). As shown below, each of the policies significantly lowers poverty and inequality in Northern Ireland, while benefiting a majority of the population.\n", + "This report aims to fill a research gap by exploring the feasibility and potential impacts of implementing a universal basic income (UBI) in Northern Ireland (NI). Despite interest in the concept of UBI—a regular, unconditional payment made to all individuals—there has been limited study on how such a policy could be enacted in NI via tax reforms and other fiscal policies. This analysis employs data-driven methods to estimate the effects on individual households, as well as broader societal metrics such as budget implications, poverty rates, and income inequality.\n", "\n", - "We follow our population-level analysis with a household analysis, visualising how each of these three policies would affect the net income and work incentives of archetypical households. While each policy benefits low-income households and families with children, it leaves childless singles worse off when their income exceeds about £10,000. It also lowers the payoff to working for most workers, though it smooths out some of the most severe disincentives in the current system.\n", + "Following [proposals](https://www.ubilabnetwork.org/pledge-for-ubi-in-northern-ireland) by the UBI Lab Northern Ireland, we fill that gap. This paper begins with a description of Northern Ireland's economy, then identifies over 120 UBI policies funded by a combination of tax reform and transfers from the UK government. We then zoom in on three specific policies, covering the space of UBI amounts (£200 to £400 per adult, per month) and tax reforms (lowering the personal allowance and increasing tax rates). As shown below, our static microsimulation model finds that each of the policies lowers poverty and inequality in Northern Ireland, while benefiting a majority of the population.\n", "\n", - "UBI is a significant economic proposition, and our analysis finds that it would leave a major mark on most Northern Ireland residents—in an undeniably progressive fashion. We conclude with caveats of our analysis, opportunities for less disruptive models, and room for more research.\n", + "We follow our population-level analysis with a household analysis, visualising how each of these three policies would affect the net income and work incentives of archetypical households. While each policy benefits low-income households and families with children, it leaves childless singles worse off when their income exceeds about £10,000. It also lowers the payoff to working for most workers, though it also lowers some of the higher marginal tax rates present in the current system.\n", "\n", - "# Northern Ireland today\n", + "We conclude with caveats of our analysis and room for more research.\n", "\n", - "The demographic and economic characteristics of Northern Ireland (NI) differ from those of the UK and other UK nations. In the main, this is lower economic output, but higher levels of social security spending. NI has a GDP per capita roughly 20% below the UK average,[^1] and the population of 1.9 million generates around £2.8 billion in Income Tax liabilities.[^2] Higher levels of public spending (with a net fiscal deficit of £9,500 per capita)[^3] in NI increase disposable incomes to offset this. As a result, we estimate that 6.1% of NI is in absolute poverty, compared to 5.5% across the UK.[^4] We also find that NI is more equal, with a Gini index of 0.274 against the UK's 0.333.\n", "\n", - "Many of Northern Ireland’s taxes and benefits operate under centralised UK rules, though exceptions to this include local property taxes such as [domestic rates](https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/topics/property-rating/domestic-rating) (and rates rebates), which exist in place of Council Tax and Council Tax Benefit. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland does not set alternative tax rates for Income Tax.\n", + "## Northern Ireland today\n", "\n", - "When it comes to basic income, Northern Ireland is broadly supportive. A 2017 poll by Ipsos MORI found that 66% of Northern Irish people favoured a basic income, compared to 49% of UK residents.[^5] Northern Ireland's net favourability of +55 was more than double that of any other region surveyed.\n", + "Compared to other UK nations, Northern Ireland (NI) has lower economic output and higher levels of social security spending. NI has a GDP per capita roughly 20% below the UK average,[^1] and the population of 1.9 million generates around £2.8 billion in Income Tax liabilities.[^2] Higher levels of public spending (with a net fiscal deficit of £9,500 per capita)[^3] in NI increase disposable incomes to partially offset this. As a result, we estimate that 11.9% of NI is in absolute poverty before housing costs, compared to 11.3% across the UK.[^4] We also find that NI incomes are more equal, with a Gini index of 0.272 against the UK's 0.305.\n", "\n", - "[^1]: [Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency, 2020](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/economic-output-statistics/gross-value-added-and-gross-domestic-product#:~:text=In%20terms%20of%20GDP%20per,78.6%20per%20cent%20of%20UK).).\n", + "Many of Northern Ireland’s taxes and benefits operate under centralised UK rules, though exceptions to this include local property taxes such as domestic rates (and rates rebates), which replace Council Tax and Council Tax Benefit, respectively. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland does not set alternative tax rates for Income Tax.\n", + "\n", + "When it comes to basic income, Northern Ireland is broadly supportive, according to a 2017 poll by Ipsos MORI finding that 66% of Northern Irish people favoured a basic income, compared to 49% of UK residents.5 Northern Ireland's net favourability of +55 was more than double that of any other region surveyed.[^5]\n", + "\n", + "\n", + "[^1]: [Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency, 2020](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/economic-output-statistics/gross-value-added-and-gross-domestic-product#:~:text=In%20terms%20of%20GDP%20per,78.6%20per%20cent%20of%20UK).\n", "[^2]: [HMRC, 2019](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/853118/Disaggregated_tax_and_NICs_receipts_-_methodological_note.pdf).\n", - "[^3]: [ONS, 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021#:~:text=On%20a%20per%20person%20basis,per%20head%20was%20%C2%A34%2C740.).\n", - "[^4]: Throughout this paper, we report absolute poverty rates before housing costs, using the OpenFisca UK calibrated Family Resources Survey extrapolated to 2022.\n", + "[^3]: [ONS, 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021#:~:text=On%20a%20per%20person%20basis,per%20head%20was%20%C2%A34%2C740).\n", + "[^4]: Throughout this paper, we report absolute poverty rates before housing costs, using the PolicyEngine UK calibrated Family Resources Survey extrapolated to 2023.\n", "[^5]: This is the only poll to ask about basic income for Northern Ireland and the UK, per the [UBI Center's Poll Tracker](polls.ubicenter.org).\n" ] }, @@ -41,7 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1: UBI favourability by UK subregion\"},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 1, @@ -77,7 +81,7 @@ " color_discrete_map={\n", " \"Strongly oppose\": DARK_GRAY,\n", " \"Tend to oppose\": GRAY,\n", - " \"Don't know\": WHITE,\n", + " \"Don\\'t know\": LIGHT_GRAY,\n", " \"Neither support nor oppose\": WHITE,\n", " \"Tend to support\": BLUE_LIGHT,\n", " \"Strongly support\": BLUE_PRIMARY,\n", @@ -116,18 +120,17 @@ "source": [ "_Source: [Ipsos MORI, August 2017](https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-uk-adults-would-support-universal-basic-income-principle). Full question: \"Assuming the level would be set roughly at the amount the UK government judged to be necessary to cover basic needs, e.g. food and clothing (but not housing costs), to what extent would you support or oppose the UK Government introducing a basic income?\"._\n", "\n", - "A full UBI in NI would align with the nation's egalitarianism and public opinion. The next section models how NI could do it.\n", - "\n", - "# Exploring the space of feasible policies\n", + "## Exploring the space of feasible policies\n", "\n", "One could model an infinite number of basic income policies for Northern Ireland. We constrained the problem by defining UBI parameter values, tax variables to adjust, and requirements for the resulting policy.\n", "\n", "In particular, we limited to UBI policies of the following form:\n", "\n", "- Amounts per adult (aged 18 or over) of £200, £300, and £400 per month\n", - "- Amounts per child aged 16 or over of half the adult amount\n", + "- Amounts per child aged 16 or 17 of half the adult amount\n", "- No amount per child younger than 16\n", "- UBI payments do not count as income for tax or means-tested benefits\n", + "- UK government externally funds 25% of the gross UBI cost\n", "\n", "To fund the UBI, we considered three levers:\n", "\n", @@ -137,7 +140,7 @@ "\n", "Finally, we constrained the end policy to:\n", "\n", - "- Be budget-neutral (assuming no behavioural responses) after assuming the UK government would fund 25% of the gross UBI cost\n", + "- Be budget-neutral (assuming no behavioural responses)\n", "- Avoid raising marginal tax rates above 100%,[^6] either via the normal tax rates, the phase-out of the personal allowance or benefit phase-outs\n", "\n", "[^6]: We exclude the Child Benefit High-Income Tax Charge from contributing to this limit, because the MTR addition from that is dependent on the number of children, with no upper bound.\n" @@ -145,7 +148,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -156,7 +159,7 @@ "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:13<00:00, 5.22s/it]\n" + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:15<00:00, 5.36s/it]\n" ] } ], @@ -221,9 +224,9 @@ ") -> Reform:\n", " TIME_PERIOD = \"year:2023:10\"\n", " return Reform.from_dict({\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: basic_rate },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: higher_rate },\n", - " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: additional_rate },\n", + " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: (basic_rate * 1_000) // 1 / 1000 },\n", + " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: (higher_rate * 1_000) // 1 / 1000 },\n", + " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate\": { TIME_PERIOD: (additional_rate * 1_000) // 1 / 1000 },\n", " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(higher_rate_threshold) },\n", " \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": { TIME_PERIOD: float(personal_allowance) },\n", " \"gov.contrib.ubi_center.basic_income.amount.by_age.child\": { TIME_PERIOD: child_bi / 52 },\n", @@ -277,7 +280,7 @@ " higher_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"higher_rate_earned_income\").values * higher_rate_addition\n", " additional_rate_increased_tax = baseline.calculate(\"add_rate_earned_income\").values * additional_rate_addition\n", " increased_tax = basic_rate_increased_tax + higher_rate_increased_tax + additional_rate_increased_tax\n", - " return (increased_tax * weight).sum()\n", + " return (increased_tax * weight).sum() * 0.65\n", "\n", "def solve_rates(\n", " adult_ubi: float = 0,\n", @@ -385,16 +388,16 @@ "\n", " for row in [model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row]:\n", " # Re-solve with slow estimate\n", - " row[\"Basic rate addition\"] = solve_rates(\n", - " adult_ubi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", - " child_ubi=row[\"Child UBI\"],\n", - " senior_ubi=row[\"Senior UBI\"],\n", - " child_min_age=child_min_age,\n", - " personal_allowance=row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", - " higher_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " additional_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", - " use_quick_estimate=False,\n", - " )\n", + " #row[\"Basic rate addition\"] = solve_rates(\n", + " ## adult_ubi=row[\"Adult UBI\"],\n", + " # child_ubi=row[\"Child UBI\"],\n", + " # senior_ubi=row[\"Senior UBI\"],\n", + " # child_min_age=child_min_age,\n", + " # personal_allowance=row[\"Personal Allowance\"],\n", + " # higher_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", + " # additional_rate_ratio=row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"],\n", + " # use_quick_estimate=False,\n", + " #)\n", " row[\"Higher rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", " row[\"Additional rate addition\"] = row[\"Basic rate addition\"] * row[\"Higher/additional rate increase ratio\"]\n", " row[\"Higher rate\"] = row[\"Higher rate addition\"] + 0.4\n", @@ -422,7 +425,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": { "tags": [ "highlighted-left" @@ -432,10 +435,10 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
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to 32.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 17.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.364306640625,0.349658203125,0.327685546875,0.305712890625,0.286669921875,0.269091796875,0.252978515625,0.236865234375,0.223681640625,0.210498046875,0.198779296875,0.188525390625,0.179736328125,0.170947265625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 53.1% and 58.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.0%, 52.0% and 57.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.4%, 50.4% and 55.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.8%, 48.8% and 53.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.2%, 47.2% and 52.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 45.9% and 50.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.4%, 44.4% and 49.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.2%, 43.2% and 48.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.1%, 42.1% and 47.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.9%, 40.9% and 45.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 39.9% and 44.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.0%, 39.0% and 44.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.1%, 38.1% and 43.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 17.4%, 37.4% and 42.4% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.330615234375,0.320361328125,0.304248046875,0.288134765625,0.272021484375,0.258837890625,0.244189453125,0.232470703125,0.220751953125,0.209033203125,0.198779296875,0.189990234375,0.181201171875,0.173876953125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.9%, 61.7% and 66.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.1%, 60.3% and 65.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.8%, 57.6% and 62.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.5%, 55.0% and 60.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 52.4% and 57.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.0%, 50.0% and 55.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.8%, 47.7% and 52.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 45.6% and 50.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 43.6% and 48.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 41.5% and 46.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.9%, 39.8% and 44.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 19.1%, 38.3% and 43.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 18.4%, 36.8% and 41.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 17.7%, 35.4% and 40.4% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.308642578125,0.301318359375,0.288134765625,0.274951171875,0.261767578125,0.250048828125,0.238330078125,0.228076171875,0.217822265625,0.207568359375,0.198779296875,0.191455078125,0.184130859375,0.176806640625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 44.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.446337890625,0.428759765625,0.400927734375,0.376025390625,0.351123046875,0.329150390625,0.310107421875,0.291064453125,0.273486328125,0.258837890625,0.244189453125,0.231005859375,0.219287109375,0.209033203125],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.7%, 59.7% and 64.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.5%, 58.5% and 63.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.4%, 56.4% and 61.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.5%, 54.5% and 59.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.6%, 52.6% and 57.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.0%, 51.0% and 56.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.3%, 49.3% and 54.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 47.8% and 52.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.3%, 46.3% and 51.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.0%, 45.0% and 50.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.8%, 43.8% and 48.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 42.8% and 47.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 41.8% and 46.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 40.8% and 45.8% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.396533203125,0.384814453125,0.364306640625,0.345263671875,0.326220703125,0.310107421875,0.292529296875,0.277880859375,0.263232421875,0.250048828125,0.238330078125,0.228076171875,0.217822265625,0.207568359375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.9%, 61.7% and 66.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.4%, 58.8% and 63.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.1%, 56.2% and 61.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 53.5% and 58.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.6%, 51.2% and 56.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.6%, 49.1% and 54.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.4%, 46.8% and 51.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.5%, 45.0% and 50.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.6%, 43.3% and 48.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 20.8%, 41.5% and 46.5% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.308642578125,0.293994140625,0.280810546875,0.267626953125,0.255908203125,0.245654296875,0.233935546875,0.225146484375,0.216357421875,0.207568359375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 50.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 47.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 44.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 41.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.528369140625,0.507861328125,0.474169921875,0.444873046875,0.417041015625,0.390673828125,0.365771484375,0.343798828125,0.323291015625,0.305712890625,0.289599609375,0.273486328125,0.260302734375,0.247119140625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.4%, 62.4% and 67.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.0%, 58.0% and 63.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.0%, 56.0% and 61.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.2%, 54.2% and 59.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 32.3%, 52.3% and 57.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.7%, 50.7% and 55.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.3%, 49.3% and 54.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 47.8% and 52.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.5%, 46.5% and 51.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.3%, 45.3% and 50.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.7%, 49.7% and 54.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.1%, 48.1% and 53.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 46.8% and 51.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.4%, 45.4% and 50.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.1%, 44.1% and 49.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.1%, 43.1% and 48.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.1%, 42.1% and 47.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 51.8% and 56.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 49.4% and 54.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.7%, 47.4% and 52.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 45.6% and 50.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 43.6% and 48.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 55.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 48.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 45.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.578173828125,0.556201171875,0.519580078125,0.487353515625,0.456591796875,0.427294921875,0.400927734375,0.377490234375,0.354052734375,0.335009765625,0.315966796875,0.299853515625,0.285205078125,0.272021484375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.6%, 63.6% and 68.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 41.4%, 61.4% and 66.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.2%, 59.2% and 64.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.2%, 57.2% and 62.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.3%, 55.3% and 60.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.4%, 53.4% and 58.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 51.7% and 56.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.3%, 50.3% and 55.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.8%, 48.8% and 53.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.5%, 47.5% and 52.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.3%, 46.3% and 51.3% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.436083984375,0.414111328125,0.392138671875,0.371630859375,0.352587890625,0.333544921875,0.317431640625,0.302783203125,0.288134765625,0.274951171875,0.263232421875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.9%, 63.8% and 68.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.4%, 60.8% and 65.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.1%, 58.2% and 63.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.9%, 55.9% and 60.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 53.5% and 58.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.7%, 51.5% and 56.5% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.318896484375,0.304248046875,0.291064453125,0.279345703125,0.267626953125,0.257373046875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 70.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 67.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 63.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 59.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 55.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 48.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 46.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.704150390625,0.677783203125,0.633837890625,0.592822265625,0.556201171875,0.521044921875,0.488818359375,0.459521484375,0.431689453125,0.408251953125,0.384814453125,0.365771484375,0.346728515625,0.330615234375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.3%, 62.3% and 67.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.2%, 58.2% and 63.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.3%, 56.3% and 61.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.7%, 54.7% and 59.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 53.1% and 58.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 51.7% and 56.7% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.422900390625,0.400927734375,0.381884765625,0.362841796875,0.346728515625,0.330615234375,0.317431640625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 63.5% and 68.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 61.1% and 66.1% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.317431640625,0.305712890625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"marker\":{\"color\":\"gray\",\"size\":5},\"mode\":\"markers\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[2000],\"y\":[0.228076171875],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"mode\":\"text\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"Model 1\"],\"textposition\":\"middle right\",\"x\":[2300],\"y\":[0.23807617187500002],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"marker\":{\"color\":\"gray\",\"size\":5},\"mode\":\"markers\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[0],\"y\":[0.263232421875],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"mode\":\"text\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"Model 2\"],\"textposition\":\"middle 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Allowance\"},\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\",\"tickformat\":\",.0f\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Basic rate\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Higher/add. rate increase ratio\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0,\"orientation\":\"h\",\"yanchor\":\"top\",\"y\":1.1},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 2: Feasible UBI policies for Northern Ireland\"}}}'" ] }, - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -458,8 +461,6 @@ " yaxis_title=\"Basic rate\",\n", " xaxis_tickprefix=\"£\",\n", " xaxis_tickformat=\",.0f\",\n", - " xaxis_range=(0, 12_570),\n", - " yaxis_range=(0, 0.7),\n", " legend_title=\"Higher/add. rate increase ratio\",\n", ")\n", "\n", @@ -473,15 +474,30 @@ " else:\n", " data[\"showlegend\"] = False\n", "\n", - "fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", - " y=np.linspace(0.15, 0.25, 3),\n", - " x=[1_000] * 3,\n", - " mode=\"text\",\n", - " name=\"Label\",\n", - " text=[\"£200/mo\", \"£300/mo\", \"£400/mo\"],\n", - " textposition=\"bottom center\",\n", - " showlegend=False,\n", - "))\n", + "\n", + "# Add three points, one for each model.\n", + "\n", + "for row, name in zip([model_1_row, model_2_row, model_3_row], [\"Model 1\", \"Model 2\", \"Model 3\"]):\n", + " fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=[row[\"Personal Allowance\"]],\n", + " y=[row[\"Basic rate\"]],\n", + " mode=\"markers\",\n", + " marker=dict(\n", + " color=\"gray\",\n", + " size=5,\n", + " ),\n", + " showlegend=False,\n", + " ))\n", + "\n", + " fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(\n", + " x=[row[\"Personal Allowance\"] + 300],\n", + " y=[row[\"Basic rate\"] + 0.01],\n", + " mode=\"text\",\n", + " text=[name],\n", + " textposition=\"middle right\",\n", + " showlegend=False,\n", + " ))\n", + "\n", "\n", "fig_json = format_fig(fig).update_layout(\n", " title=\"Figure 2: Feasible UBI policies for Northern Ireland\",\n", @@ -502,9 +518,9 @@ ] }, "source": [ - "Figure 2 represents this exploratory exercise: each point in these lines is a feasible policy. For example, the topmost line shows the set of all policies that provide £400 per month to adults (£100 to children), and in which the higher and additional rates do not rise with the basic rate. It varies by the basic rate and personal allowance. The leftmost point in this line is a policy that abolishes the Personal Allowance (reduces it by the full £12,570), increases the basic rate by 4p, and doesn't increase the higher and additional rates.\n", + "Figure 2 illustrates the outcomes of various feasible policies generated through PolicyEngine's UK microsimulation model, using an enhanced version of the Family Resources Survey. Details on the data and methodology can be found in Appendix A. Each point on these lines represents a specific policy configuration. For instance, the topmost line displays all policies that provide £400 per month to adults (£100 to children) while keeping the higher and additional rates constant as the basic rate changes. The policy configurations along this line vary based on the basic rate and personal allowance. The leftmost point of this line represents a policy that completely eliminates the Personal Allowance (a reduction of the full £12,570), increases the basic rate by 4p, and leaves the higher and additional rates unchanged.\n", "\n", - "These lines are incomplete because they do not show policies that would increase marginal tax rates (MTRs) above 100%. For example, the lowest line in the £400 per month group ends at the policy that would raise the basic rate by 11p and reduce the personal allowance to £6,000. Extending that line (raising the Personal Allowance) would require increasing the basic rate. However, doing so would increase the MTR above 100% for people earning £100,000, as their personal allowance phases out.[^7] To avoid exceeding 100% MTRs, more generous UBI policies require broader-base tax reforms focused on the personal allowance and basic rate.\n", + "These lines are incomplete because they do not show policies that would increase marginal tax rates (MTRs) above 100%. For example, the lowest line in the £400 per month group ends at the policy that would raise the basic rate by 11p and reduce the personal allowance to £6,000. Extending that line (raising the Personal Allowance) would require increasing the basic rate. However, doing so would increase the MTR above 100% for people earning £100,000, as their personal allowance phases out.[^7] To avoid exceeding 100% MTRs, more generous UBI policies require broader-based tax reforms focused on the personal allowance and basic rate.\n", "\n", "In the next section, we provide a deeper dive into three policies—one for each UBI level.\n", "\n", @@ -515,44 +531,47 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "# Policy deep dive\n", + "## Policy deep dive\n", "\n", - "We selected three of the 126 feasible policies to describe in more detail. These show the space of policies—not only in terms of UBI amount, but also the funding mechanisms. These three policies are shown in Table 1, the first column of which directs to the reform in PolicyEngine.\n", + "We selected three of the 126 feasible policies to describe in more detail. These show the space of policies—not only in terms of UBI amount, but also the funding mechanisms. These three policies are shown in Table 1, the first column of which directs to the reform in PolicyEngine.[^8] Each policy's tax reforms comprise about 75% of the cost, with the remainder coming from the UK government.\n", "\n", "- _Model 1_ provides £200 per adult per month, and funds it by reducing the personal allowance to £2,000 and increasing the basic rate by 1.8p and the higher and additional rates by 3.6p.\n", "- _Model 2_ provides £300 per adult per month, funded by abolishing the personal allowance and increasing all three tax rates by 5.2p.\n", "- _Model 3_ provides £400 per adult per month, again abolishing the personal allowance but increasing only the basic rate of income tax, by 11.5p.\n", "\n", - "Each of the reforms substantially lowers or eliminates the personal allowance, and increases the basic rate; the cost of the policies requires broad-based tax reform. Each of the reforms also cuts poverty by at least 36% and inequality by at least 9%, with the more generous programs producing stronger effects. A large majority of the population comes out ahead from each, as well.\n", + "Each of the reforms substantially lowers or eliminates the personal allowance, and increases the basic rate; the cost of the policies requires broad-based tax reform. Each of the reforms also cuts poverty by at least 36% and inequality by at least 9%, with the more generous programs producing stronger effects. A majority of the population comes out ahead from each, as well.\n", + "\n", + "[^8]: Alternative policies mirroring the triplet here but including payments for children are shown in Appendix B.\n", "\n", "Table 1: Three policies to fund a UBI in Northern Ireland\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/markdown": [ - "| | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |\n", - "|:--------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for adults | £200 | £300 | £400 |\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for children | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 5.2p | 11.5p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £0.8bn | £1.3bn | £1.7bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £4.3bn | £5.7bn |\n", - "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £5.1bn | £6.8bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £262m | £430m | £610m |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -44.6% | -58.9% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -14.0% | -17.7% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 66% | 70% | 70% |\n", - "| Westminster contribution | 24.8% | 24.7% | 24.8% |\n", - "| PolicyEngine link | #33122 | #33123 | #33124 |" + "| | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |\n", + "|:------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (18+) | £200 | £300 | £400 |\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (16-17) | £100 | £150 | £200 |\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (0-15) | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", + "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £0 | £0 |\n", + "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 5.2p | 11.5p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.9bn | £1.3bn | £1.7bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £4.3bn | £5.7bn |\n", + "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £5.1bn | £6.8bn |\n", + "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.4bn | £0.6bn |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -44.6% | -59.4% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -13.9% | -17.7% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 67% | 70% | 70% |\n", + "| UK supplement | 25.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% |\n", + "| Link | #33332 | #33333 | #33334 |" ], "text/plain": [ "" @@ -598,8 +617,9 @@ " filter_to_ni(simulation)\n", "\n", " summary_table = pd.DataFrame()\n", - " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12]\n", - " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = [0, 0, 0]\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (18+)\"] = [model_1_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_2_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12, model_3_row[\"Adult UBI\"] / 12]\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (16-17)\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (18+)\"] / 2\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (0-15)\"] = [0, 0, 0]\n", " summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = [model_1_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_2_row[\"Personal Allowance\"], model_3_row[\"Personal Allowance\"]]\n", " summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Basic rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Basic rate addition\"]]\n", " summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = [model_1_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_2_row[\"Higher rate addition\"], model_3_row[\"Higher rate addition\"]]\n", @@ -634,21 +654,20 @@ " for sim in [model_1_sim, model_2_sim, model_3_sim]\n", " ]\n", "\n", - " summary_table\n", - "\n", " # Formatting\n", "\n", - " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for adults\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", - " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount for children\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (18+)\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (18+)\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (16-17)\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (16-17)\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (0-15)\"] = summary_table[\"Monthly UBI amount (0-15)\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", " summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"] = summary_table[\"Personal Allowance\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x:,.0f}\")\n", " summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Basic rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", " summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Higher rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", " summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"] = summary_table[\"Additional rate increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:.1f}p\")\n", - " summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"] / summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"]\n", - " summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"] = summary_table[\"Westminster contribution\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x:.1%}\")\n", + " summary_table[\"UK supplement\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"] / summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"]\n", + " summary_table[\"UK supplement\"] = summary_table[\"UK supplement\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x:.1%}\")\n", " summary_table[\"Net cost\"] = summary_table[\"Net cost\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", " summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"] = summary_table[\"Revenue raised\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", - " summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e6:,.0f}m\")\n", + " summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"] = summary_table[\"Benefit outlay increase\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", " summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"] = summary_table[\"Basic income spending\"].map(lambda x: f\"£{x/1e9:,.1f}bn\")\n", " summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"] = summary_table[\"Poverty impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", " summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"] = summary_table[\"Inequality impact\"].map(lambda x: f\"{x * 100:+.1f}%\")\n", @@ -658,8 +677,8 @@ " reform.api_id\n", " for reform in [model_1_reform, model_2_reform, model_3_reform]\n", " ]\n", - " summary_table[\"PolicyEngine link\"] = [\n", - " f\"#{policy_id}\" for policy_id in policy_ids\n", + " summary_table[\"Link\"] = [\n", + " f\"#{policy_id}\" for policy_id in policy_ids\n", " ]\n", " summary_table.index = [\"Model 1\", \"Model 2\", \"Model 3\"]\n", "\n", @@ -676,14 +695,14 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "Digging into the poverty impacts reveals similarly sized impacts on child poverty, with the most generous plan halving it.[^8] [Many studies find](child-allowance.ubicenter.org/empirical) that child poverty causes deleterious developmental and lifelong outcomes.\n", + "Digging into the poverty impacts reveals similarly sized impacts on child poverty, with the most generous plan halving it.[^9] \n", "\n", - "[^8]: The impacts on deep poverty (the population share with net income below half the poverty threshold) are similar, though we do not include them here as the Family Resources Survey has too few records near the deep poverty line to produce reliable results.\n" + "[^9]: The impacts on deep poverty (the population share with net income below half the poverty threshold) are similar, though we do not include them here as the Family Resources Survey has too few records near the deep poverty line to produce reliable results.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -693,7 +712,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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They also cut narrower measures of inequality: depending on the policy, the share of disposable income held by the top 1 and 10 percent of the population falls by 3 to 8 percent.\n" + "Each policy reduces various measures of income inequality, especially the Gini index, roughly in proportion to the UBI amount. They also cut narrower measures of inequality: depending on the policy, the share of disposable income held by the top 1 and 10 percent of the population falls by 3 to 8 percent.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -761,7 +780,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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change\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"barmode\":\"group\",\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 4: Inequality impact by metric and UBI policy\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 6, @@ -838,18 +857,18 @@ "source": [ "The next sections provide more detailed societal-level impacts on each of the three policies.\n", "\n", - "## [£200 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=33122&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", + "## [£200 per month option](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?reform=33332&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", "_£200 per month for adults, funded by lowering the personal allowance to £2,000, increasing the basic rate by 1.8p, and increasing the higher and additional rates by 3.6p_\n", "\n", "The smallest policy in our analysis reduces the allowance to £2,000 per year, raises the basic rate to 21.8%, the higher rate to 43.6% and the additional rate to 48.6%. 66% of the population sees their income rise as a result of the policy.\n", "\n", - "The policy is highly progressive: the lowest income decile sees an increase of 15% to its aggregate disposable income.\n" + "The lowest income decile sees an average increase of 15% to its aggregate disposable income, while the upper decile sees a 1.2% decrease.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -859,7 +878,7 @@ { "data": { 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But gains broadly correlate with income: in the first decile, all individuals see their household net income rise; in the top decile, most see their income fall. Basic income schemes often create large amounts of low-income households who see a loss, if the policy abolishes or removes elements of the existing welfare system. This and other policies considered in this report avoid creating such low-income losses by not reforming benefit programs.\n" + "This does not mean, however, that everyone within a beneficiary decile comes out ahead or vice-versa. 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This includes a fall of 40% for working-age poverty and by 42% for child poverty.\n", "\n", - "## [£300 per month option](http://localhost:3000/uk/policy?reform=33123&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", + "## [£300 per month option](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?reform=33333&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", "_£300 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing all tax rates by 5.2p_\n", "\n", - "Northern Ireland could increase the basic income level from £200 to £300 by eliminating the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 25.2%, the higher rate to 45.2%, and the additional rate to 49.2%. One counter-intuitive result of this is that the top marginal income tax rate actually falls slightly: in the current system, individuals who earn over £100,000 and less than £125,140 pay a 63.25% marginal tax rate.[^9] Under this policy, the top marginal income tax rate becomes 49.2%, as the personal allowance no longer exists to be phased out.\n", + "To raise the basic income level from £200 to £300, Northern Ireland could eliminate the personal allowance and adjust tax rates as follows: increase the basic rate to 25.2%, the higher rate to 45.2%, and the additional rate to 49.2%. UK transfers would fund the remaining quarter. As a result, the top marginal income tax rate would drop to 49.2% because the policy eliminates the personal allowance and its phase-out effect on higher earners.[^10]\n", "\n", - "With a larger UBI comes more progressive outcomes: the lowest income decile sees its income increase by over 23%, and the top decile income falls by around 2%.\n", + "With a larger UBI comes larger gains for lowest income decile: 23%, compared to a 2% fall among the top decile.\n", "\n", - "[^9]: This is because of the personal allowance phase-out, which creates a 60% marginal rate (40% \\* 1.5), in addition to the National Insurance marginal rate of (as of the time of writing) 3.25%.\n" + "[^10]: This is because of the personal allowance phase-out, which creates a 60% marginal rate (40% \\* 1.5), in addition to the National Insurance marginal rate of (as of the time of writing) 3.25%.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 9, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ 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More households lose income, and more shift from losing under 5% to over 5%. Countering this, a larger proportion of individuals are in households with strong (over 5%) increases in income: from 50% (for the £200 per month policy) to 56%.\n" + "A similar pattern holds for the distribution of outcomes within each decile, but the results are more pronounced. More households lose income, and more shift from losing under 5% to over 5%. Meanwhile, a larger proportion of individuals that gain at least 5% of income: from 50% (for the £200 per month policy) to 56%." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 10, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -986,7 +1005,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hoverinfo\":\"none\",\"legendgroup\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"marker\":{\"color\":\"#2C6496\",\"line\":{\"width\":0}},\"name\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"offsetgroup\":\"Gain more than 5%\",\"orientation\":\"h\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"56%\"],\"textangle\":0,\"textposition\":\"inside\",\"x\":[0.5594736313896533],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[\"All\"],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"bar\",\"width\":[0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9]},{\"hoverinfo\":\"none\",\"legendgroup\":\"Gain less than 5%\",\"marker\":{\"color\":\"#D8E6F3\",\"line\":{\"width\":0}},\"name\":\"Gain less than 5%\",\"offsetgroup\":\"Gain less than 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"metadata": {}, "source": [ - "## [£400 per month option](http://policyengine.org/uk/policy?reform=33124&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", + "## [£400 per month option](http://policyengine.org/uk/policy?reform=33334&focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact®ion=ni&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1)\n", "\n", "_£400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and increasing the basic rate by 11.5p_\n", "\n", - "The most generous basic income policy considered is £400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 31.5%, creating a non-progressive nominal tax schedule (though note that the full tax-benefit schedule is already non-progressive). With a total redistribution of £5.7bn in via tax revenues and £6.8bn out via benefit outlays (including the Westminster-funded portion), 70% of individuals see an increase in disposable income. The bottom decile sees an increase of 32% in disposable income, and the top two deciles both fall by around a percentage point.\n" + "The most generous basic income policy considered is £400 per month for adults, funded by repealing the personal allowance and raising the basic rate to 31.5%, creating a non-progressive nominal tax schedule (though note that the full tax-benefit schedule is already non-progressive). With a total redistribution of £5.7bn in via tax revenues and £6.8bn out via benefit outlays (including the Westminster-funded portion), 70% of individuals see an increase in disposable income. The bottom decile sees an increase of 32% in disposable income, and the top two deciles both fall by around 1-2%.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 11, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1033,7 +1052,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"marker\":{\"color\":[\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#2C6496\",\"#616161\",\"#616161\",\"#616161\"]},\"text\":[\"+31.9%\",\"+17.3%\",\"+13.7%\",\"+10.7%\",\"+7.9%\",\"+4.3%\",\"+2.6%\",\"-0.3%\",\"-1.9%\",\"-1.2%\"],\"textangle\":0,\"x\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"y\":[0.3194963239889924,0.17349061817003847,0.13719340756848736,0.10689866335711037,0.07862217751053611,0.0430376959176412,0.026332703425185337,-0.0032298539143812747,-0.019019497558309093,-0.011719413364036415],\"type\":\"bar\"}],\"layout\":{\"uniformtext\":{\"minsize\":8,\"mode\":\"hide\"},\"xaxis\":{\"tickvals\":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Income 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- "A single adult with no children is a net beneficiary under all three policies only until they reach £21,000 in employment income.[^10] Before this break-even point, the policy that most benefits them is the £400 per month UBI. After that threshold, their net income rises more slowly than it would have under the baseline policy, and their policy preference would flip: The £400 and £300 per month UBI policies (which have higher tax increases) are worse for their net income. However, this preference only lasts until after the personal allowance phase-out at £125,140: the £400 per month UBI quickly becomes the best policy due to its 0-point changes to the higher and additional rates of income tax.\n", + "A single adult with no children sees a net gain under all three policies only up to £21,000 in employment income. Below this income level, the £400 per month UBI policy results in the highest net income.[^11] After surpassing the £21,000 threshold, the rate of increase in net income slows under the £400 and £300 per month UBI policies compared to the baseline, due to higher tax increases. This pattern shifts once again after income crosses the personal allowance phase-out point at £125,140. Beyond this point, the £400 per month UBI policy leads to the highest net income because it involves no changes to the higher and additional rates of income tax.\n", "\n", - "[^10]: We vary the employment income of only one earner, holding the other (if they exist) at zero.\n" + "[^11]: We vary the employment income of only one earner, holding the other (if they exist) at zero.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 13, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1237,7 +1256,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 14, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1247,7 +1266,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to annual net income\"},\"tickmode\":\"array\",\"tickvals\":[-10000,-5000,0,5000,10000],\"ticktext\":[\"-\\\\u00a310,000\",\"-\\\\u00a35,000\",\"\\\\u00a30\",\"+\\\\u00a35,000\",\"+\\\\u00a310,000\"],\"range\":[-10000,10000]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 12: Change to annual net income by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 15, @@ -1330,14 +1349,14 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "For a pensioner couple, one of whom has income,[^11] the net impact of the basic income policies varies significantly with income. For households with income under £100,000, all of the policies leave them significantly better off. This is primarily because Pension Credit compensates pensioners for any Income Tax rises. The Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit tops up pensioner incomes to a minimum level, and the post-tax income definition used means that pensioners are guaranteed to be better off: it deducts income tax payments (meaning that it shields from the broad-based tax rises in each policy) and does not include basic income payments. However, after pensioner income rises out of the range in which Guarantee Credit operates (around £12,500), the gains from the UBI policies diminish.\n", + "For a pensioner couple, one of whom has income,[^11] the net impact of the basic income policies varies significantly with income. For households with income under £100,000, all of the policies leave them better off, primarily because Pension Credit compensates pensioners for any Income Tax rises. The Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit tops up pensioner incomes to a minimum level, and the post-tax income definition used means that pensioners are guaranteed to be better off: it deducts income tax payments (meaning that it shields from the broad-based tax rises in each policy) and does not include basic income payments. However, after pensioner income rises out of the range in which Guarantee Credit operates (around £12,500), the gains from the UBI policies diminish.\n", "\n", "[^11]: We plot based on earnings, but net income responds similarly to earnings as State Pension.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 16, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1347,7 +1366,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to annual net income\"},\"tickmode\":\"array\",\"tickvals\":[-10000,-5000,0,5000,10000],\"ticktext\":[\"-\\\\u00a310,000\",\"-\\\\u00a35,000\",\"\\\\u00a30\",\"+\\\\u00a35,000\",\"+\\\\u00a310,000\"],\"range\":[-10000,10000]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 13: Change to annual net income by UBI policy and income (pensioner couple, no children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 16, @@ -1363,26 +1382,24 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "The appendix contains charts comparing the baseline and reform net incomes as values rather than differences.\n", - "\n", "### Marginal tax rates\n", "\n", - "The marginal tax rate (MTR) for a given pound of earnings is defined as the percentage which does not contribute to increasing net income, either by going to taxation instead or by causing a reduction in benefit entitlement. For example, if an earner faces a 20% MTR from taxes and a 15% MTR from benefits, their total MTR is 35% and they take home 65p for each additional £1 of earnings.\n", + "The marginal tax rate (MTR) represents the portion of an additional pound of earnings that does not add to net income. This occurs either because it is taken as tax or results in reduced benefit entitlements. For instance, if someone has a 20% MTR due to taxes and another 15% MTR from reduced benefits, the total MTR would be 35%. In this scenario, the individual would keep 65 pence out of each additional pound earned.\n", "\n", - "Figure 14 shows the MTR associated with each earnings level for a married couple with two children:[^12] the higher the line at a given income, the lower the incentive to work. Where the MTR is 100%, this means that earning an additional pound will make no difference to net income. Where the MTR is above 100%, earning additional income at the margin will decrease the household’s net income. The interaction of the policies is complex: at different points, some UBI policies would reduce MTRs; at others, they would increase them. Broadly, MTRs rise across the earnings spectrum, but decrease in some specific areas.\n", + "Figure 14 displays the Marginal Tax Rate (MTR) at various earnings levels for a married couple with two children.[^12] A higher line at a given income level indicates a diminished incentive to work. When the MTR is 100%, earning an additional pound has no impact on net income. An MTR above 100% means that earning more actually reduces net income. The UBI policies' impact on MTR varies: at certain income levels, they lower MTRs; at others, they raise them. Generally, MTRs tend to go up, though there are specific income ranges where they decrease.\n", "\n", - "The first of these areas is at £50,270, the higher rate threshold. Under current law, the Marriage Allowance is a tax allowance that reduces tax liability by enabling couples to transfer some (10%) of their personal allowance between them. However, it is only available to couples with one earner under the higher rate threshold, which leads to a sudden increase in tax liability at that income level (creating an MTR over 100%, a ‘cliff’). All UBI policies reduce this cliff because they reduce or eliminate the personal allowance.\n", + "The first such range is at £50,270, which is the higher rate threshold. Under current rules, the Marriage Allowance allows couples to transfer 10% of their personal allowance between them, reducing their tax liability. This benefit is lost when one partner's income surpasses the higher rate threshold, leading to a sharp increase in tax liability and creating an MTR 'cliff' over 100%. All examined UBI policies mitigate this issue by either reducing or eliminating the personal allowance.\n", "\n", - "The second is at £100,000. Under baseline policy, the personal allowance is phased out after this point at a rate of 50p per pound of income over the threshold. With no personal allowance, there is nothing to phase out, so the £300 per month and £400 per month UBI policies both eliminate this, reducing the MTR by 20pp.\n", + "The second notable income range starts at £100,000. According to the baseline policy, the personal allowance begins to phase out at this level, diminishing by 50p for each pound earned above this threshold. The £300 and £400 per month UBI policies remove this phase-out by reducing or eliminating the personal allowance, which in turn lowers the MTR by 20 percentage points.\n", "\n", - "Overall, all policies substantially raise marginal tax rates in the main, and therefore disincentivise work relative to the status quo, while removing some extreme disincentives to work embedded in certain parts of the current tax code.\n", + "In summary, all analysed policies generally increase MTRs, thereby reducing work incentives relative to the current system. However, they also remove specific high MTRs that exist in the current tax code.\n", "\n", - "[^12]: We focus on the MTR for a married couple with two children because the differences between baseline and reform don't depend much on household structure. See the appendix for more MTR charts for different household archetypes.\n" + "[^12]: We focus on the MTR for a married couple with two children because the differences between baseline and reform don't depend much on household structure.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 17, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1508,7 +1525,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 18, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1518,7 +1535,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=Baseline
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Marginal tax rate\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\",\"range\":[-0.01,1]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 14: Marginal tax rate by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\"},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 18, @@ -1542,7 +1559,7 @@ " yaxis_range=(-0.01, 1),\n", " yaxis_title=\"Marginal tax rate\",\n", " xaxis_title=\"Employment income\",\n", - " title=\"Marginal tax rate by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\",\n", + " title=\"Figure 14: Marginal tax rate by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\",\n", ").update_traces(\n", " line_shape=\"hv\",\n", ")\n", @@ -1558,7 +1575,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 19, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1579,8 +1596,11 @@ " baseline_sim = Simulation(situation=household_type)\n", " sim = Simulation(situation=household_type, reform=reform)\n", " mtr = sim.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate\", 2023) - baseline_sim.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate\", 2023)\n", - " mtr = mtr.reshape((100, -1)).T[0]\n", - " wage = - mtr\n", + " original_mtr = baseline_sim.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate\", 2023).reshape((100, -1)).T[0]\n", + " original_wage_multiplier = 1 - original_mtr\n", + " reformed_mtr = sim.calculate(\"marginal_tax_rate\", 2023).reshape((100, -1)).T[0]\n", + " reformed_wage_multiplier = 1 - reformed_mtr\n", + " wage = reformed_wage_multiplier / original_wage_multiplier - 1\n", " earnings = sim.calculate(\"employment_income\", map_to=\"household\", period=2023)\n", " df = pd.DataFrame({\"Policy\": policy_name, \"Effective wage change\": wage, \"Earnings\": earnings, \"Household type\": household_name})\n", " dfs.append(df)\n", @@ -1590,7 +1610,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 20, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -1600,7 +1620,7 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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form of disruption and potential macroeconomic drag. A substantial portion of the nation would come out behind, and many by material amounts. And most would face considerably higher marginal tax rates.\n", + "However, these shifts come with their own set of complexities, such as potential economic consequences and an increase in marginal tax rates for a considerable portion of the populace. It's important to note that our model is static and does not account for all of these factors. A [recent paper](http://www.columbia.edu/~wk2110/bin/DeatonReviewChapter.pdf) from the IFS and Columbia University states, \"Current estimates therefore suggest that the top UK rate [of 47%] is close to revenue maximizing, but there is a very large degree of uncertainty around this.\" Several of the proposed reforms would push this top rate closer to 80%.\n", "\n", - "Our static model does not fully account for these costs. A [recent paper](http://www.columbia.edu/~wk2110/bin/DeatonReviewChapter.pdf) from IFS and Columbia University found, \"Current estimates therefore suggest that the top UK rate [of 47%] is close to revenue maximising, but there is a very large degree of uncertainty around this.\" Some of these reforms would bring that top rate closer to 80%, and extend it to a thicker part of the earnings distribution. While poverty reduction would benefit the economy, reducing the net marginal wage for hundreds of thousands of workers could shrink it, and more research is needed to understand the full impact of these countervailing forces.\n", + "While our model shows certain immediate changes in household economics, it's less clear on the potential macroeconomic effects. For instance, the change in poverty status and marginal tax rates for a wide range of individuals could have various implications for the economy. More research is needed to understand the full spectrum of these impacts.\n", "\n", - "More research could also identify policies that achieve similar distributional benefits without so much disruption. For example, others have [created an optimisation model](ubicenter.org/uk-blank-slate-ubi) to explore tens of thousands of UBI policies and select the age-dependent amounts that minimised disruption. That approach could be applied to NI specifically, and with potentially more levers such as the tax reforms we applied here.\n", + "Future studies could offer alternative policy designs that produce similar distributional effects but with reduced economic and social perturbations. Methods such as optimisation models could assess a variety of UBI policies specifically for Northern Ireland, potentially incorporating the tax reforms outlined in this report.\n", "\n", - "Our microsimulation approach provides one piece of the puzzle in understanding a feasible transition to universal basic income in Northern Ireland.\n" + "Our microsimulation approach provides one piece of the puzzle in understanding possible outcomes of a universal basic income in Northern Ireland." ] }, { @@ -1684,7 +1704,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 21, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -1745,23 +1765,23 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "## Appendix B: Previous UBI models\n", + "## Appendix B: Extending the UBI to children\n", "\n", - "A previous version of this report included children below the age of 16 in the UBI policy, giving them half the adult amount. Table 3 shows the results of that approach: for each of the three models above, we include a version which used the same feasibility criteria including children.\n", + "Table 3 mirrors Table 1 with a parallel version of each UBI model, revised to provide half the adult amount to children under age 16.\n", "\n", "Table 3: Three policies to fund a UBI in Northern Ireland, including children\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 22, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:15<00:00, 5.38s/it]\n" + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [1:04:01<00:00, 274.43s/it]\n" ] } ], @@ -1773,29 +1793,30 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 23, + "execution_count": null, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/markdown": [ - "| | Model 1 | Model 1c | Model 2 | Model 2c | Model 3 | Model 3c |\n", - "|:--------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for adults | £200 | £200 | £300 | £300 | £400 | £400 |\n", - "| Monthly UBI amount for children | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £2,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 3.0p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 11.5p | 14.4p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.9p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.9p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £0.8bn | £1.0bn | £1.3bn | £1.4bn | £1.7bn | £1.9bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £3.2bn | £4.3bn | £4.8bn | £5.7bn | £6.5bn |\n", - "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £3.9bn | £5.1bn | £5.8bn | £6.8bn | £7.7bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £262m | £283m | £430m | £482m | £610m | £703m |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -40.2% | -44.6% | -45.6% | -58.9% | -68.1% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -12.4% | -14.0% | -18.1% | -17.7% | -22.3% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 66% | 74% | 70% | 74% | 70% | 71% |\n", - "| Westminster contribution | 24.8% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 25.1% | 24.8% | 25.1% |\n", - "| PolicyEngine link | #33122 | #33193 | #33123 | #33194 | #33124 | #33195 |" + "| | Model 1 | Model 1c | Model 2 | Model 2c | Model 3 | Model 3c |\n", + "|:------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (18+) | £200 | £200 | £300 | £300 | £400 | £400 |\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (16-17) | £100 | £100 | £150 | £150 | £200 | £200 |\n", + "| Monthly UBI amount (0-15) | £0 | £100 | £0 | £150 | £0 | £200 |\n", + "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £2,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", + "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 3.1p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 11.5p | 14.5p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 6.2p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 6.2p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.9bn | £0.9bn | £1.3bn | £1.5bn | £1.7bn | £1.9bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £3.2bn | £4.3bn | £4.8bn | £5.7bn | £6.5bn |\n", + "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £3.9bn | £5.1bn | £5.8bn | £6.8bn | £7.7bn |\n", + "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.3bn | £0.4bn | £0.5bn | £0.6bn | £0.7bn |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -40.2% | -44.6% | -45.6% | -59.4% | -68.1% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -12.5% | -13.9% | -18.1% | -17.7% | -22.4% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 67% | 72% | 70% | 74% | 70% | 71% |\n", + "| UK supplement | 25.4% | 24.4% | 25.0% | 25.3% | 25.0% | 24.8% |\n", + "| Link | #33332 | #33341 | #33333 | #33342 | #33334 | #33343 |" ], "text/plain": [ "" @@ -1827,6 +1848,14 @@ " \"Model 3c\",\n", "]\n", "\n", + "for i in range(1, 4):\n", + " ubi_amount = {\n", + " 1: \"£100\",\n", + " 2: \"£150\",\n", + " 3: \"£200\",\n", + " }[i]\n", + " combined_table[f\"Model {i}c\"].iloc[2] = ubi_amount\n", + "\n", "Markdown(combined_table.to_markdown())" ] } diff --git a/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx b/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx index 4bd645801..a12ea0e6d 100644 --- a/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx +++ b/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx @@ -199,7 +199,7 @@ function NotebookOutputPlotly({ data }) { const displayCategory = useDisplayCategory(); return ( - <> +
{title &&

{title}

} - +
); } @@ -784,7 +784,8 @@ function BlogContent({ markdown, backgroundColor }) { Date: Fri, 17 Nov 2023 22:36:21 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] Add new chart --- src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb | 193 +++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 129 insertions(+), 64 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb index 53d4214d3..da9a566ea 100644 --- a/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb +++ b/src/posts/northern-ireland-feasibility.ipynb @@ -14,7 +14,66 @@ "\n", "This report aims to fill a research gap by exploring the feasibility and potential impacts of implementing a universal basic income (UBI) in Northern Ireland (NI). Despite interest in the concept of UBI—a regular, unconditional payment made to all individuals—there has been limited study on how such a policy could be enacted in NI via tax reforms and other fiscal policies. This analysis employs data-driven methods to estimate the effects on individual households, as well as broader societal metrics such as budget implications, poverty rates, and income inequality.\n", "\n", - "Following [proposals](https://www.ubilabnetwork.org/pledge-for-ubi-in-northern-ireland) by the UBI Lab Northern Ireland, we fill that gap. This paper begins with a description of Northern Ireland's economy, then identifies over 120 UBI policies funded by a combination of tax reform and transfers from the UK government. We then zoom in on three specific policies, covering the space of UBI amounts (£200 to £400 per adult, per month) and tax reforms (lowering the personal allowance and increasing tax rates). As shown below, our static microsimulation model finds that each of the policies lowers poverty and inequality in Northern Ireland, while benefiting a majority of the population.\n", + "Following [proposals](https://www.ubilabnetwork.org/pledge-for-ubi-in-northern-ireland) by the UBI Lab Northern Ireland, we fill that gap. This paper begins with a description of Northern Ireland's economy, then identifies over 120 UBI policies funded by a combination of tax reform and transfers from the UK government. We then zoom in on three specific policies, covering the space of UBI amounts (£200 to £400 per adult, per month) and tax reforms (lowering the personal allowance and increasing tax rates). As shown below, our static microsimulation model finds that each of the policies lowers poverty and inequality in Northern Ireland, while benefiting a majority of the population.\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [ + { + "data": { + "text/plain": [ + "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Monthly adult UBI=\\\\u00a3200/month
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change\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Monthly adult UBI\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"barmode\":\"group\",\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" + ] + }, + "execution_count": 1, + "metadata": {}, + "output_type": "execute_result" + } + ], + "source": [ + "import plotly.express as px\n", + "import pandas as pd\n", + "from policyengine_core.charts import *\n", + "\n", + "df = pd.DataFrame({\n", + " \"Metric\": [\"Income inequality (Gini index)\", \"Absolute poverty\"],\n", + " \"£200/month\": [-9.1, -36.1],\n", + " \"£300/month\": [-13.9, -44.6],\n", + " \"£400/month\": [-17.7, -59.4],\n", + "})\n", + "\n", + "# Convert wide to long\n", + "df = pd.melt(df, id_vars=[\"Metric\"], value_vars=[\"£200/month\", \"£300/month\", \"£400/month\"]).rename(columns={\n", + " \"variable\": \"Monthly adult UBI\",\n", + " \"value\": \"Value\"\n", + "})\n", + "df[\"Value\"] /= 100\n", + "\n", + "df[\"Text\"] = df[\"Value\"].apply(lambda x: f\"{x:+.1%}\")\n", + "\n", + "fig = px.bar(\n", + " df,\n", + " x=\"Metric\",\n", + " y=\"Value\",\n", + " color=\"Monthly adult UBI\",\n", + " barmode=\"group\",\n", + " text=\"Text\",\n", + " color_discrete_sequence=BLUE_COLOUR_SCALE,\n", + ").update_layout(\n", + " yaxis_tickformat=\".0%\",\n", + " yaxis_title=\"Relative change\",\n", + ")\n", + "\n", + "format_fig(fig).to_json()" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ "\n", "We follow our population-level analysis with a household analysis, visualising how each of these three policies would affect the net income and work incentives of archetypical households. While each policy benefits low-income households and families with children, it leaves childless singles worse off when their income exceeds about £10,000. It also lowers the payoff to working for most workers, though it also lowers some of the higher marginal tax rates present in the current system.\n", "\n", @@ -34,7 +93,7 @@ "[^2]: [HMRC, 2019](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/853118/Disaggregated_tax_and_NICs_receipts_-_methodological_note.pdf).\n", "[^3]: [ONS, 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021#:~:text=On%20a%20per%20person%20basis,per%20head%20was%20%C2%A34%2C740).\n", "[^4]: Throughout this paper, we report absolute poverty rates before housing costs, using the PolicyEngine UK calibrated Family Resources Survey extrapolated to 2023.\n", - "[^5]: This is the only poll to ask about basic income for Northern Ireland and the UK, per the [UBI Center's Poll Tracker](polls.ubicenter.org).\n" + "[^5]: This is the only poll to ask about basic income for Northern Ireland and the UK, per the [UBI Center's Poll Tracker](polls.ubicenter.org)." ] }, { @@ -148,7 +207,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 3, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -159,7 +218,7 @@ "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:15<00:00, 5.36s/it]\n" + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:13<00:00, 5.28s/it]\n" ] } ], @@ -425,7 +484,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 4, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": { "tags": [ "highlighted-left" @@ -438,7 +497,7 @@ "'{\"data\":[{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
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75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.452197265625,0.434619140625,0.406787109375,0.380419921875,0.356982421875,0.335009765625,0.314501953125,0.295458984375,0.277880859375,0.261767578125,0.247119140625,0.233935546875,0.222216796875,0.211962890625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.9%, 58.9% and 63.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.9%, 56.9% and 61.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.0%, 55.0% and 60.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 53.1% and 58.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.3%, 51.3% and 56.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.7%, 49.7% and 54.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.1%, 48.1% and 53.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 46.8% and 51.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.4%, 45.4% and 50.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.1%, 44.1% and 49.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.1%, 43.1% and 48.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.1%, 42.1% and 47.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.0%, 41.0% and 46.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.400927734375,0.389208984375,0.368701171875,0.349658203125,0.330615234375,0.313037109375,0.296923828125,0.280810546875,0.267626953125,0.254443359375,0.241259765625,0.231005859375,0.220751953125,0.210498046875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.2%, 62.3% and 67.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.8%, 59.7% and 64.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.4%, 56.7% and 61.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.2%, 54.4% and 59.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.9%, 51.8% and 56.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 24.7%, 49.4% and 54.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 23.7%, 47.4% and 52.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 22.8%, 45.6% and 50.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.8%, 43.6% and 48.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a32,400 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 21.0%, 42.1% and 47.1% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.311572265625,0.298388671875,0.283740234375,0.272021484375,0.258837890625,0.247119140625,0.236865234375,0.228076171875,0.217822265625,0.210498046875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 57.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 55.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 48.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 45.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.578173828125,0.556201171875,0.519580078125,0.487353515625,0.456591796875,0.427294921875,0.400927734375,0.377490234375,0.354052734375,0.335009765625,0.315966796875,0.299853515625,0.285205078125,0.272021484375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.6%, 63.6% and 68.6% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 41.4%, 61.4% and 66.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 39.2%, 59.2% and 64.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 37.2%, 57.2% and 62.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 35.3%, 55.3% and 60.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.4%, 53.4% and 58.4% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 51.7% and 56.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.3%, 50.3% and 55.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 28.8%, 48.8% and 53.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.5%, 47.5% and 52.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.3%, 46.3% and 51.3% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.436083984375,0.414111328125,0.392138671875,0.371630859375,0.352587890625,0.333544921875,0.317431640625,0.302783203125,0.288134765625,0.274951171875,0.263232421875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.9%, 63.8% and 68.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.4%, 60.8% and 65.8% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 29.1%, 58.2% and 63.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 27.9%, 55.9% and 60.9% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 26.8%, 53.5% and 58.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a33,600 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 25.7%, 51.5% and 56.5% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.318896484375,0.304248046875,0.291064453125,0.279345703125,0.267626953125,0.257373046875],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,570 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 70.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a312,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 67.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a311,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 63.4%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a310,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 59.3%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a39,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 55.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a38,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 52.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a37,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 48.9%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 46.0%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 43.2%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.8%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.5%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.6%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.7%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 40.0% and 45.0% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"0% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#ABCEEB\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"0% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[12570,12000,11000,10000,9000,8000,7000,6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.704150390625,0.677783203125,0.633837890625,0.592822265625,0.556201171875,0.521044921875,0.488818359375,0.459521484375,0.431689453125,0.408251953125,0.384814453125,0.365771484375,0.346728515625,0.330615234375],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a36,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 42.3%, 62.3% and 67.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a35,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 40.1%, 60.1% and 65.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a34,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 38.2%, 58.2% and 63.2% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a33,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 36.3%, 56.3% and 61.3% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a32,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 34.7%, 54.7% and 59.7% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 33.1%, 53.1% and 58.1% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 51.7% and 56.7% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"100% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#49A6E2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"100% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[6000,5000,4000,3000,2000,1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.422900390625,0.400927734375,0.381884765625,0.362841796875,0.346728515625,0.330615234375,0.317431640625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"customdata\":[[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a31,000 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 31.7%, 63.5% and 68.5% respectively.\"],[\"A \\\\u00a34,800 UBI and \\\\u00a30 Personal Allowance can be made
75% budget neutral by setting the basic, higher and additional rates
to 30.6%, 61.1% and 66.1% respectively.\"]],\"hovertemplate\":\"%{customdata[0]}\",\"legendgroup\":\"200% \",\"line\":{\"color\":\"#1976D2\",\"dash\":\"solid\"},\"marker\":{\"symbol\":\"circle\"},\"mode\":\"lines\",\"name\":\"200% \",\"orientation\":\"v\",\"showlegend\":true,\"x\":[1000,0],\"xaxis\":\"x\",\"y\":[0.317431640625,0.305712890625],\"yaxis\":\"y\",\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"marker\":{\"color\":\"gray\",\"size\":5},\"mode\":\"markers\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[2000],\"y\":[0.228076171875],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"mode\":\"text\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"Model 1\"],\"textposition\":\"middle right\",\"x\":[2300],\"y\":[0.23807617187500002],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"marker\":{\"color\":\"gray\",\"size\":5},\"mode\":\"markers\",\"showlegend\":false,\"x\":[0],\"y\":[0.263232421875],\"type\":\"scatter\"},{\"mode\":\"text\",\"showlegend\":false,\"text\":[\"Model 2\"],\"textposition\":\"middle 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"code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -560,18 +619,18 @@ "| Monthly UBI amount (16-17) | £100 | £150 | £200 |\n", "| Monthly UBI amount (0-15) | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 5.2p | 11.5p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 5.2p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £0.9bn | £1.3bn | £1.7bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £4.3bn | £5.7bn |\n", + "| Basic rate increase | 2.8p | 6.3p | 13.1p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 5.6p | 6.3p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 5.6p | 6.3p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.6bn | £1.0bn | £1.3bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £3.1bn | £4.6bn | £6.1bn |\n", "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £5.1bn | £6.8bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.4bn | £0.6bn |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -44.6% | -59.4% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -13.9% | -17.7% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 67% | 70% | 70% |\n", - "| UK supplement | 25.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% |\n", - "| Link | #33332 | #33333 | #33334 |" + "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.5bn | £0.7bn |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -34.6% | -44.2% | -58.0% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -10.0% | -14.6% | -18.0% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 59% | 62% | 64% |\n", + "| UK supplement | 16.7% | 18.9% | 19.7% |\n", + "| Link | #36779 | #36780 | #36781 |" ], "text/plain": [ "" @@ -702,7 +761,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 26, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -712,10 +771,10 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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group\"}},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Poverty rate change\"},\"tickformat\":\".0%\"},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"barmode\":\"group\",\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 3: Poverty rate change by age group\"},\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 26, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } @@ -758,6 +817,9 @@ ")\n", "for i in range(len(fig.data)):\n", " fig.data[i][\"text\"] = [f\"{x:+.1%}\" if x is not None else \"\" for x in fig.data[i][\"y\"]]\n", + "fig.update_traces(\n", + " textangle=0,\n", + ")\n", "format_fig(fig).to_json()" ] }, @@ -770,7 +832,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 27, "metadata": { "tags": [ "hide-input" @@ -780,10 +842,10 @@ { "data": { "text/plain": [ - "'{\"data\":[{\"alignmentgroup\":\"True\",\"hovertemplate\":\"Policy=\\\\u00a3200/month
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income\"},\"tickformat\":\",.0f\",\"tickprefix\":\"\\\\u00a3\"},\"yaxis\":{\"anchor\":\"x\",\"domain\":[0.0,1.0],\"title\":{\"text\":\"Change to effective marginal wage\"},\"tickformat\":\"+.0%\",\"range\":[-1,1]},\"legend\":{\"title\":{\"text\":\"Policy\"},\"tracegroupgap\":0},\"margin\":{\"t\":60},\"title\":{\"text\":\"Figure 15: Change to effective marginal wage by UBI policy and income (married couple, two children)\"},\"shapes\":[{\"line\":{\"color\":\"grey\",\"width\":1},\"type\":\"line\",\"x0\":0,\"x1\":1,\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y0\":0,\"y1\":0,\"yref\":\"y\"}],\"font\":{\"family\":\"Roboto Serif\",\"color\":\"black\"},\"images\":[{\"sizex\":0.2,\"sizey\":0.2,\"source\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-app/master/src/images/logos/policyengine/blue.png\",\"x\":1,\"xanchor\":\"right\",\"xref\":\"paper\",\"y\":-0.15,\"yanchor\":\"bottom\",\"yref\":\"paper\"}],\"height\":600,\"width\":800,\"modebar\":{\"bgcolor\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\",\"color\":\"rgba(0,0,0,0)\"}}}'" ] }, "execution_count": 20, @@ -1704,7 +1769,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 21, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -1774,14 +1839,14 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 22, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ - "100%|██████████| 14/14 [1:04:01<00:00, 274.43s/it]\n" + "100%|██████████| 14/14 [01:14<00:00, 5.33s/it]\n" ] } ], @@ -1793,7 +1858,7 @@ }, { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, + "execution_count": 23, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -1805,18 +1870,18 @@ "| Monthly UBI amount (16-17) | £100 | £100 | £150 | £150 | £200 | £200 |\n", "| Monthly UBI amount (0-15) | £0 | £100 | £0 | £150 | £0 | £200 |\n", "| Personal Allowance | £2,000 | £2,000 | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 |\n", - "| Basic rate increase | 1.8p | 3.1p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 11.5p | 14.5p |\n", - "| Higher rate increase | 3.6p | 6.2p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Additional rate increase | 3.6p | 6.2p | 5.2p | 7.1p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", - "| Net cost | £0.9bn | £0.9bn | £1.3bn | £1.5bn | £1.7bn | £1.9bn |\n", - "| Revenue raised | £2.8bn | £3.2bn | £4.3bn | £4.8bn | £5.7bn | £6.5bn |\n", + "| Basic rate increase | 2.8p | 2.8p | 6.3p | 6.3p | 13.1p | 13.1p |\n", + "| Higher rate increase | 5.6p | 5.6p | 6.3p | 6.3p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Additional rate increase | 5.6p | 5.6p | 6.3p | 6.3p | 0.0p | 0.0p |\n", + "| Net cost | £0.6bn | £1.0bn | £1.0bn | £1.6bn | £1.3bn | £2.2bn |\n", + "| Revenue raised | £3.1bn | £3.1bn | £4.6bn | £4.6bn | £6.1bn | £6.1bn |\n", "| Basic income spending | £3.4bn | £3.9bn | £5.1bn | £5.8bn | £6.8bn | £7.7bn |\n", - "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.3bn | £0.4bn | £0.5bn | £0.6bn | £0.7bn |\n", - "| Poverty impact | -36.1% | -40.2% | -44.6% | -45.6% | -59.4% | -68.1% |\n", - "| Inequality impact | -9.1% | -12.5% | -13.9% | -18.1% | -17.7% | -22.4% |\n", - "| Percent of population gaining | 67% | 72% | 70% | 74% | 70% | 71% |\n", - "| UK supplement | 25.4% | 24.4% | 25.0% | 25.3% | 25.0% | 24.8% |\n", - "| Link | #33332 | #33341 | #33333 | #33342 | #33334 | #33343 |" + "| Benefit outlay increase | £0.3bn | £0.3bn | £0.5bn | £0.5bn | £0.7bn | £0.7bn |\n", + "| Poverty impact | -34.6% | -40.8% | -44.2% | -45.6% | -58.0% | -70.9% |\n", + "| Inequality impact | -10.0% | -12.2% | -14.6% | -17.7% | -18.0% | -22.0% |\n", + "| Percent of population gaining | 59% | 75% | 62% | 77% | 64% | 77% |\n", + "| UK supplement | 16.7% | 26.5% | 18.9% | 28.4% | 19.7% | 29.1% |\n", + "| Link | #36779 | #36788 | #36780 | #36789 | #36781 | #36790 |" ], "text/plain": [ ""